Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Buffalo, NY

344 
WWUS51 KBUF 280506
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
106 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NYC003-009-280515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260728T0515Z/
Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-
106 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

At 106 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Olean, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Olean, Allegany, Cuba, St. Bonaventure, Weston Mills, Hinsdale,
Friendship, Bolivar, Portville, and Belmont.

This includes Interstate 86 between exits 23 and 30.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7862 4212 7865 4235 7803 4200 7803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 264DEG 16KT 4208 7845 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Mitchell

852 
WWUS51 KBUF 280515
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NYC003-009-280525-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-260728T0515Z/
Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-
115 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7862 4212 7865 4235 7803 4200 7803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 270DEG 15KT 4208 7841 

$$

Mitchell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased probability of showers and thunderstorms across western
NY this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized
gusty winds.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday, with
drier conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and
localized gusty winds.

Surface analysis shows low pressure over northern Wisconsin with a
warm front extending south into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Deep
convection exists near Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Closer to home,
ridging remains across the Northeast with light winds aloft. Daytime
heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s will support diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms across the terrain and inland from the
lakes this afternoon.

The surface low is expected to move across the central Great Lakes
tonight. A corridor of increasing mid-level winds, steepening mid-
level lapse rates, and high PWATS will move into the Ohio Valley and
parts of western NY late tonight. Mean 0-6km wind shear will
increase to 20-30 knots across far western NY, remaining less than
20 knots east of the Genesee Valley. The storm motion of the ongoing
organized convection across the Central Great Lakes is expected to
move south, and stay west of the forecast area, however additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the surface low
approaches the region tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move across western NY through Tuesday morning.
Conditions are marginally favorable for an isolated severe
thunderstorm across far western NY tonight, with gusty winds and
heavy rain as the main hazards.

The surface low is expected to track across western NY Tuesday, then
become nearly stationary across north-central NY Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Showers will taper off across far western NY
Tuesday morning. Diurnal heating within a very moist environment
will support additional showers and thunderstorms during peak
heating. A low level jet will wrap around the low and a few strong
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding
across parts of the Finger Lakes region and north-central NY Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. As the low spins across northern
New York Tuesday night, wrap around moisture will support chances
for showers across western NY overnight. There is a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for portions of western and north-central
NY through Wednesday.

Expect a cool Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s, 60s
across the higher terrain.

Key Message 2...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the
work week.

The anomalously strong low will move off the southern New England
coast Thursday. While moisture is expected to pull away from the
forecast area, diurnally driven convection remains possible,
especially across interior locations. Expect another cool day with
highs in the 70s.

High pressure will move into the eastern Great Lakes region for the
end of the week bringing dry and seasonal weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure will slowly drift from the Upper Great
Lakes to central/eastern New York State tonight and Tuesday.
Increasing moisture and large-scale forcing associated with the low
will spread a swath of showers and scattered thunderstorms across
far WNY from from west to east between the mid-late evening and
overnight hours tonight, then further east across the Finger Lakes
and North Country Tuesday morning. As this occurs, flight conditions
will lower from VFR to MVFR/IFR, with locally heavy rainfall
possible within any stringer convective cores. Behind the low and
main swath of convection, a developing northerly upslope flow will
then maintain general MVFR/IFR ceilings and additional scattered to
numerous showers through the balance of Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers and
possibly a few leftover thunderstorms.

Thursday...Improvement to VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Tuesday a broad wave of low pressure will settle
southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern New
York...with the low then slowly drifting to the mid-Atlantic
coastline Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this occurs a light to
modest southerly flow out ahead of the low tonight will transition
to an increasingly brisk northerly to northeasterly flow Tuesday and
Tuesday night following the passage of the low. While the finer
details of this transition have yet to be ironed out...this will
likely eventually lead to a period of SCA-worthy conditions along
the southern shores of both lakes from sometime late Tuesday/Tuesday
evening through Wednesday...before winds lighten and turn more
westerly Thursday/Friday and allow for a commensurate decrease in
wave action.

Out ahead of the approaching low...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Lake Erie and
western Lake Ontario into this evening...with more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms then expected later tonight and
Tuesday as the low crosses our region. Any storms could produce
locally higher winds and waves, with this potential greatest across
Lake Erie tonight.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-281845-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through overnight
will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday through Wednesday. Slow
moving rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce locally heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-281845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms to pass across the lakes tonight,
producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-281845-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
tonight, with the timing of the storms late. Damaging winds and heavy
rainfall are the main risks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday through Wednesday. Slow
moving rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday may
produce locally heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf