Alert archive / New York / Cold Weather Advisories in 2026
Cold Weather Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this cold weather advisory at Jan 26, 2026, 12:57 AM EST for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Jan 26, 2026, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 36 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 26, 2026, 12:57 AM EST (05:57 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 26, 2026, 10:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Jan 28, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 288 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 451 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 124 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 311 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 432 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this cold weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this cold weather advisory went out at Jan 25, 6:39 PM EST, 6 hours 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Widespread snow will continue through tonight, with wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday night. 2) Increasing confidence in moderate to heavy lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday, though potentially beyond as well. 3) Frigid air will remain locked in across the Great Lakes through the entire week, with a couple of opportunities for headline-worthy wind chills.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 6:39 PM EST, 6 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjustments made to the placement and accumulations of lake effect
snow off Lake Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday night. Totals
notably increased across Oswego County.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread snow will continue through tonight, with wrap around
lake enhanced snow through Monday night.
2) Increasing confidence in moderate to heavy lake effect snow east
and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through Wednesday, though
potentially beyond as well.
3) Frigid air will remain locked in across the Great Lakes through
the entire week, with a couple of opportunities for headline-worthy
wind chills.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread snow will continue through tonight, with
wrap around lake enhanced snow through Monday night.
An area of elongated surface low pressure currently spread from
Alabama to southeastern Kentucky will continue to gradually
strengthen and track northeast this afternoon. Current radar imagery
depicts a band of steadier precipitation across much of western and
central New York as of noon time. This steadier, and efficient
snowfall will continue this afternoon and last well into this
evening across western and central New York, while spreading further
northeast into the eastern Great Ontario region due to the
combination of an area of deeper moisture and strong ascent from the
nose of the low level jet pushing northeast overhead of New York
State. The bulk of the heavier snow will fall through tonight,
before exiting from southwest to northeast as the surface low
traverses from the Mid-Atlantic to the coast of New England.
By Monday morning, wrap around moisture combined with the passage of
a mid-level trough will support some widespread nuisance snow
showers to persist across the region with some embedded upslope/lake
enhancement east of Lake Erie Monday and pure lake enhancement along
the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario Monday and Monday night.
Additionally some Lake Huron lake effect may also reach into the
Niagara Frontier at times Monday afternoon and evening.
This all being said, snowfall amounts from the widespread snow will
range from 9 to 18 inches, with the highest amounts lying across the
higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
region, and southeast of Lake Ontario. Additional snow accumulations
Monday will be minor, generally just 1 to 2 inches in most areas,
with some 3 inch amounts in lake enhancement areas, especially
southeast of Lake Ontario across far northern Cayuga, and into
western Oswego counties.
Outside of the snow, northwest winds will increase some Monday
afternoon with gusts in the 20-30 mph range, producing some limited
blowing and drifting in open areas.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence in moderate to heavy lake
effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through
Wednesday, though potentially beyond as well.
The axis of an increasingly positively tilted mid-level trough will
cross the central and eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. This will force a
disorganized clipper sfc low east across southern ON/QC provinces.
Associated weak cold front will extend down into the forecast area,
resulting in a veering of the low level flow from southwesterly
Tuesday morning to northwesterly by Tuesday night. While the front
could bring some nuisance minor snowfall to the entire area, the
main focus will be the invigorated lake response off Lake Ontario.
Strong low-level convergence and increasing saturation will cause
the primary band to strengthen in the vicinity of the
Jefferson/Oswego County border early Tuesday evening before shifting
southward, likely settling between Wayne and southern Oswego
overnight. BUFKIT soundings indicate EQL heights topping out around
13-15kft as this shift occurs with deep lift through the DGZ. This
should allow for a period of 1-2" per hour snowfall rates, though as
as the band moves through Oswego in particular, these rates could be
as high as 2-3" per hour. Still a bit of uncertainty in peak
potential strength, though the main uncertainty here is the timing
and speed of this southward push which will have major implications
on expected snowfall. Significant localized impacts in the area can
still be expected regardless.
The primary lake effect band is expected to remain mobile Wednesday
through Thursday, though with increased uncertainty in placement and
strength. A weak shortwave followed by a closed upper low pivoting
south of James Bay will likely cause the band to wobble back
northwards towards the Tug Hill for a time Wednesday, before yet
another southward push orients the main lake effect area southeast
of the lake Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter, long range
ensembles indicate a prevailing northwesterly flow through the end
of the week with cold air locked in place, which could allow for
continued snows south/southeast of Lake Ontario.
Not to go completely unmentioned, lake effect potential east of Lake
Erie remains questionable at best. Rapid increases in ice coverage
and thickness over the past week should greatly mute any response
from the lake through the week, though some thinner ice between Long
Point and Buffalo could be enough to locally enhance snowfall
downwind of the lake at times. PoPs/QPF are both a bit higher across
the higher terrain compared to surrounding areas to account for this
possibility as well as to catch any potential upslope enhancement.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Frigid air will remain locked in across the Great
Lakes through the entire week, with a couple of opportunities for
headline-worthy wind chills.
In the wake of the major winter storm, the broad-scale longwave
pattern across the CONUS will struggle to significantly change
through the course of the week. Stout ridging will persist west of
the Plains while deep longwave troughing remains locked in across
the Northeastern quadrant. This will allow for a continuous flow of
frigid Canadian air down across the lakes. In addition to the lake
effect snow this will produce, high temps will struggle to escape
the teens and single digits while lows above and below zero in the
single digits will be commonplace.
In regards to temps/wind chills, the first timeframe of elevated
concern this week will be Monday night as colder air is initially
wrapped back in behind the current major winter system and winds
pick up in strength overnight. Wind chills of -10F to -20F look
plausible into early Tuesday. As a deep closed low drags an even
colder airmass southward after midweek, it's not out of the question
that wind chills in this range return Wednesday night, though
Thursday night could be even more frigid as the airmass moves more
solidly overhead. Wind chills of -20F to -30F are possible in this
timeframe, especially if lake effect clouds manage to clear out in
some areas.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread moderate to heavy snow impacting all TAF sites
supporting IFR/LIFR in steady snow. These conditions will
persist tonight before gradually improving to some MVFR
overnight, as the steadier synoptic snow pulls northeast into
New England. In the wake of the departing system, areas of lake
enhanced snow south and southeast of the lakes will support IFR
conditions to persist overnight through Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night...IFR in localized lake enhanced snow southeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.
Thursday and Friday...Chance of snow, locally heavier near the
Lakes. IFR or below is possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Fresh easterlies/northeasterlies lie across Lake Ontario this
afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient between departing high
pressure over New England and incoming low pressure from the
southwest. These easterlies will remain elevated through tonight
before backing to the north and weakening late tonight into Monday
morning as low pressure pulls northeast off the New England coast. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the western half of Lake
Ontario from later this morning through mid morning Monday.
Following a brief lull in the winds first half of Monday, winds will
freshen on both lakes Monday afternoon and remain elevated, with
small craft conditions possible through at least mid week on both
lakes, possibly persisting over Lake Ontario for much of the
upcoming week. Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore
waters are now ice covered.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature
January 25 -14 (1884) 5 (1884)
Rochester
Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature
January 25 -6 (1945) 7 (1884)
Watertown
Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature
January 25 -18 (2007) 3 (1992)
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ001-002-
010>014-019>021-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ003>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ042-043.
&&
DISCUSSION...EAJ/PP
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/JM
CLIMATE...HSKHazardous weather outlook, Jan 25, 1:36 PM EST, 11 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 NYZ001-002-010-011-261845- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Wind chills may approach 15 below zero Monday night through Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012>014-019>021-085-261845- Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany- Southern Erie- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Wind chills may approach 20 below zero Monday night through Tuesday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003>005-261845- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-261845- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Lake effect snow will continue Tuesday through Tuesday night, with additional moderate accumulations possible in persistent bands. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-261845- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-261845- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-261845- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf SLZ022-024-261845- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 136 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 25, 7:32 PM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
732 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 PM Snow 1 ESE Amherst 43.00N 78.75W
01/25/2026 M7.5 Inch Erie NY Trained Spotter
0700 PM Snow 1 NW Williamsville 42.97N 78.77W
01/25/2026 M5.3 Inch Erie NY NWS Employee
0700 PM Snow 2 NNE Constantia 43.28N 75.99W
01/25/2026 M7.5 Inch Oswego NY Trained Spotter
0645 PM Snow 2 NE Stafford 43.00N 78.05W
01/25/2026 M7.3 Inch Genesee NY NWS Employee
0645 PM Snow Cassadaga 42.34N 79.32W
01/25/2026 M5.0 Inch Chautauqua NY CO-OP Observer
0600 PM Snow 1 S Spencerport 43.17N 77.81W
01/25/2026 M6.0 Inch Monroe NY Public
Town of Ogden.
0600 PM Snow 1 S Honeoye Falls 42.94N 77.59W
01/25/2026 M7.0 Inch Livingston NY Public
0600 PM Snow Lima 42.91N 77.61W
01/25/2026 M7.0 Inch Livingston NY Public
0600 PM Snow Sardinia 42.54N 78.50W
01/25/2026 M6.0 Inch Erie NY Trained Spotter
3 inches since 1 pm.
0600 PM Snow Corfu 42.96N 78.40W
01/25/2026 M6.0 Inch Genesee NY Trained Spotter
0530 PM Snow 2 NW Rochester 43.19N 77.65W
01/25/2026 M5.0 Inch Monroe NY Trained Spotter
0500 PM Snow 4 NW Eden 42.69N 78.97W
01/25/2026 M8.4 Inch Erie NY Public
0500 PM Snow 4 NW North Tonawanda 43.08N 78.92W
01/25/2026 M5.0 Inch Niagara NY Trained Spotter
&&Local storm report, Jan 25, 7:34 PM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0654 PM Snow Buffalo Airport 42.94N 78.73W
01/25/2026 M5.1 Inch Erie NY Official NWS Obs
0654 PM Snow Rochester Airport 43.12N 77.67W
01/25/2026 M6.4 Inch Monroe NY Other Federal
&&Local storm report, Jan 25, 7:56 PM EST, 5 hours 1 minute before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
756 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM Snow 2 E Stafford 42.98N 78.03W
01/25/2026 M9.0 Inch Genesee NY Trained Spotter
0730 PM Snow 1 WNW Colden 42.66N 78.70W
01/25/2026 M4.1 Inch Erie NY Cocorahs
0730 PM Snow Watertown 43.97N 75.91W
01/25/2026 M3.4 Inch Jefferson NY Trained Spotter
&&Local storm report, Jan 25, 8:42 PM EST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jan 25, 9:20 PM EST, 3 hours 37 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM Snow Geneva 42.87N 76.98W
01/25/2026 M9.5 Inch Ontario NY Trained Spotter
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 1:05 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego, Wayne | 3 days |
| Jan 26, 3:46 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 5 days |
Nearby
Cold Weather Advisories in New York, 2026Every cold weather advisory in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.