Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS La Crosse, WI

602 
WWUS53 KARX 101840
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
140 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIC043-103-101900-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-260610T1900Z/
Grant WI-Richland WI-
140 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES...

At 140 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fennimore to 6 miles northwest of Dodgeville,
moving north at 40 mph.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN 
RICHLAND COUNTIES.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Muscoda around 150 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Preston, County Roads O And O O, Arthur, Montfort, Livingston, Orion,
and Union.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure 
and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4329 9042 4325 9019 4317 9020 4320 9026
      4320 9028 4321 9029 4320 9043 4280 9043
      4284 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 202DEG 33KT 4303 9059 4301 9024 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 700 PM CDT, for
  all hazards including large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter),
  damaging winds (up to 70 mph gusts), and a few tornadoes.
  Risk for locally heavy rain.

- Another conditional threat for severe weather exists Thursday
  afternoon across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. All
  hazards including heavy rainfall are possible.

- Relatively quieter conditions are expected Friday through the
  start of next week with cooler temperatures and periodic
  chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Morning: Strong to Severe Storm Potential

"Messy" is the word that comes to mind when thinking about how to
best describe the evolution of today's severe weather potential.

Several rounds of severe weather appear possible today, but can
largely be broken into two timeframes, the first being from
early to mid morning. A warm front and associated 925-850hPa low
level jet currently situated over eastern Nebraska/northwest
Iowa lifts northward during the overnight hours with MUCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg building in along with it. HRRR/RAP
soundings depict this instability largely residing above the
warm nose in the 700-850hPa associated with the warm air
advection ahead of the approaching front, suggesting that storms
that develop should be elevated. The biggest uncertainty is
if/where storms are able to form given on the capping in place.
700hPa temperatures in the 10.02z RAP sit around 12C which will
act to suppress upward motions across much of the region.
However, cooler temperatures above 700hPa will support mid-level
lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km, posing a threat for large hail and
some modest DCAPE around 850-1000 J/kg would support damaging
wind potential in storms that do develop. Effective bulk shear
does appear to be fairly limited though, generally only
15-20kts, which would hinder the longevity of stronger storms
that develop.

Currently thinking those areas along and north of I-90 will see
the greatest risk for strong to severe storms with this initial
round where forcing is maximized and capping is minimized. Some
isolated cells may be able to develop across those areas south
of I-90, but currently thinking capping will be too strong
across these areas and will miss out on this first round
entirely.

This Afternoon and Evening: Additional Rounds of Severe Thunderstorms

The second timeframe for severe thunderstorms is focused during
this afternoon into this evening and will be the messiest from
a development standpoint, but potentially the most impactful.
Warm surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints
upwards of 70 degrees will support SBCAPE values of 2500-3500
J/kg through the afternoon and evening hours. 0-6km bulk shear
will be on the increase through the day as well, becoming
35-45kts, although still somewhat displaced from model
convection. Regardless, storms developing in this environment
should quickly become severe. More interestingly is the low
level shear, upwards of 25-35kts in the 0-3km layer as the low
level jet increases across the region with low level curvature
depicted in model hodographs which would support rotating
updrafts as 0-1km SRH of 100+ m2/s2 exists through the
afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be fairly
steep, generally 6.5-7.5 C/km.

All hazards are on the table during the afternoon and evening
hours. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail is
expected to develop with storms that develop initially in a
discrete to semi-discrete mode with the potential for tornadoes
as well. However, the slightly displaced deep layer shear may
result in storms quickly congealing into a linear mode supported
by the 0-3km shear with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
the favored hazards. Heavy rain with rates of 0.5-1 inch is also
possible, although widespread flooding is not anticipated.

Despite the favorable parameters for severe weather, plenty of
disagreement exists amongst the various CAMs regarding the
evolution of remnant outflows/MCVs from the morning's convection
as these will be the primary catalysts for convective
initiation, which reduces confidence in where these storms
actually develop. The first area to watch is central Iowa as a
line of convection is depicted to lift northward into northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin in the afternoon additional
scattered development behind this line.

As we head into the evening, a surface cold front is expected
to shift southeast across the region from central Minnesota
providing another focus for convective development, which will
be the second area to watch. The 10.00z HRRR is by far the most
rambunctious with convective development along this front, and by
the time the surface cold front moves into the region there is
the possibility that the atmosphere is thoroughly worked over
and any additional storms that do develop along the front will
struggle to become severe. However, models continue to suggest
SBCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg will exist along the front with
40-45kts of 0-6km shear which would support severe thunderstorms
in a linear mode. Damaging winds would be the primary hazards
with the tornado threat largely dependent on how stable the near
surface layer is by that point. However, tornadoes certainly
can't be ruled out at this point, especially in bowing segments
given a nearly perpendicular orientation of the 0-3km shear
vector to the boundary.

Overall confidence in the evolution of this afternoon's severe
threat remains low and likely won't increase until storms begin
to develop along the aforementioned outflows/MCVs, but
confidence in hazard type remains medium to high. Ensure you
have multiple ways to receive warnings today!

Thursday: Conditional Severe Storm Potential, Heavy Rain

Additional severe storm potential presents itself on Thursday
as a an area of low pressure ejects off the central Rockies
before translating northeastward into the Great Lakes region.
The favored trajectory of this feature brings it directly over
our area with those in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin
within the warm sector. How far north the warm front makes it
will largely be a function of how today's weather plays out as
the cold front may be able to advance further south than
currently depicted.

Regardless, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg build into those areas
within the warm sector while 0-6km shear of 45-60kts is depicted
in the 10.03z RAP, although this may work against storm
development given the skinny CAPE profiles depicted in model
soundings. Regardless, if storms develop in this environment,
all severe hazards will be possible.

Heavy rainfall also looks to be favorable during this period.
PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches, above the 90th percentile of
climatology combined with the skinny profiles previously
mentioned, and warm cloud depths in excess of 10kft would
support heavy rainfall. Mean 24hr QPF in the 09.19z NBM does
suggest 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible through the day
Thursday with an 20-30% chance for over 2 inches of rain, both
of which are primarily focused over northeast Iowa into central
Wisconsin.

Friday - Early Next Week: Periodic Rain Chances and Cooler

Relatively quieter conditions close out the week as the primary
trough axis pivots into the eastern Great Lakes region, setting
up zonal flow aloft over much of the northern United States.
There is some potential for precipitation through the weekend,
mainly on Saturday as the deterministic guidance resolves a
surface boundary shifting southeastward through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley associated with a 700hPa shortwave
trough sinking southward from a vorticity maxima over
Manitoba/Ontario. Probabilities of rainfall during this period
sit around 30-60% in both the 09.19z NBM and 09.12z LREF with
the highest confidence in rainfall potential located over
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

Behind this boundary, cooler temperatures look to arrive to
start the new week as another shortwave trough sinks
southeastward through the United States, setting up an area of
lower heights across the Upper Midwest. Plenty of variation
exists regarding timing and location of this upper level feature
which leads to a fairly large temperature spread in the
NWP/AIWP ensemble guidance, but the consistent trend amongst
these suites is towards cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Radar and satellite observations early this afternoon shows a
growing line of showers and thunderstorms from eastern Iowa
northward through southeastern Minnesota. The strongest storms thus
far have developed across east-central Minnesota and eastern Iowa,
with weaker showers and isolated storms in the vicinity of KRST.
Recent trends suggest a decreasing threat for strong storms in the
vicinity of KRST until later this evening as the cold front tracks
into the area. Radar imagery shows thunderstorms beginning to
develop along the Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota border. The
atmosphere will continue to destabilize through 11/0000Z, with
instability and shear profiles and high resolution models
suggesting discrete storms growing upscale into lines of strong
to severe thunderstorms. These storms will focus across western
Wisconsin between 10/1900X through 11/0000Z. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing all hazards, including wind gusts in
excess of 50kts, large hail, and few tornadoes across the area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Falkinham/NWS
AVIATION...Cecava/NWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-111230-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong storms are possible through early this morning, with strong
wind gusts being the main threat.

Severe weather is likely across the region this afternoon and
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, and
multiple tornadoes will be the main threats. Locally heavy rain
will also a hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Depending on how storms evolve on Wednesday afternoon, there
there could be a risk for severe weather over northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin early Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 11 am this morning covering the risk
for severe thunderstorms.

Barendse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1253 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Kieler                  42.58N 90.60W
06/10/2026  M60 MPH          Grant              WI   Emergency Mngr

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ032-033-041-101830-
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-La Crosse WI-
1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN BUFFALO...NORTHWESTERN LA
CROSSE AND CENTRAL TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of Modena
to near Trempealeau. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4406 9121 4397 9141 4400 9143 4401 9146
      4401 9148 4402 9151 4403 9159 4405 9161
      4407 9166 4410 9168 4410 9171 4412 9171
      4413 9173 4414 9177 4448 9186 4460 9152
      4460 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 239DEG 27KT 4436 9165 4401 9151

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kotenberg

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
108 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Platteville        42.71N 90.51W
06/10/2026  M51 MPH          Grant              WI   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Potosi                  42.69N 90.71W
06/10/2026  E61 MPH          Grant              WI   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
119 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Platteville       42.69N 90.44W
06/10/2026  M60 MPH          Grant              WI   AWOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
123 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Platteville       42.69N 90.44W
06/10/2026  M68 MPH          Grant              WI   AWOS

&&