Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
150 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 700 PM CDT, for
  all hazards including large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter),
  damaging winds (up to 70 mph gusts), and a few tornadoes.
  Risk for locally heavy rain.

- Marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon. All hazards including risk for large hail, damaging
  winds, and tornadoes from northeast Iowa through southwest
  Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Regional radar and surface observations early this afternoon
show a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), moving northeastward
across southwest Wisconsin near the Iowa border. Several severe
thunderstorm warnings are in effect with gusts up to 74 mph
being reported thus far with this MCS. Convection initiation
continues rapidly north of this MCS, with several discrete cells
developing near the I-90 corridor. High-resolution CAM guidance
and observational trends suggest thunderstorms will quickly
grow upscale into a forward- propagating line through mid-
afternoon into the early evening as storms track towards the
I-94 corridor. Initially, discrete cells near the I-90 and I-94
corridors early this afternoon will pose the risk for large hail
and strong winds, with the severe threat evolving into
primarily straight line winds.

Looking ahead into the evening, a surface cold front is
expected to shift southeast across the region from central
Minnesota setting the stage for another round of convective
development. High-solution models continue to offer varying
solutions on the intensity of storms along this frontal
boundary. Shear and instability profiles once again suggest
discrete cells developing along the front, before growing
upscale into line segments as storms move eastward towards I-94
through this evening.

Overall, low to medium confidence exists regarding the evolution
of storms, particularly this evening. Ensure you have multiple
ways to receive warnings today! This is especially paramount
given the multiple rounds of thunderstorms through this evening.

Looking ahead to Thursday, SPC has highlighted the area for a
marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, focused from
late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be
capable of all hazards including the risk for large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes from northeast Iowa through
southwest Wisconsin. High-resolution models suggest an MCS will
develop across Iowa by mid-morning, with storms growing upscale
across the CWA by late morning through the afternoon. The
greatest risk for severe weather will focus across northeast
Iowa through southwest Wisconsin.

Long-term: Friday through early next week:

Relatively quieter conditions close out the week as a trough
pivots into the eastern Great Lakes region, setting up zonal
flow aloft over much of the northern United States. There is
some potential for precipitation through the weekend, mainly on
Saturday as the deterministic guidance resolves a surface
boundary shifting southeastward through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley associated with a 700hPa shortwave trough sinking
southward from a vorticity maxima over Manitoba/Ontario.
Probabilities of rainfall during this period sit around 30-60%
in both NBM and LREF with the highest confidence in rainfall
potential located over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

Behind this boundary, cooler temperatures look to arrive to
start the new week as another shortwave trough sinks
southeastward through the United States, setting up an area of
lower heights across the Upper Midwest. Plenty of variation
exists regarding timing and location of this upper level feature
which leads to a fairly large temperature spread in the
NWP/AIWP ensemble guidance, but the consistent trend amongst
these suites is towards cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Radar and satellite observations early this afternoon shows a
growing line of showers and thunderstorms from eastern Iowa
northward through southeastern Minnesota. The strongest storms thus
far have developed across east-central Minnesota and eastern Iowa,
with weaker showers and isolated storms in the vicinity of KRST.
Recent trends suggest a decreasing threat for strong storms in the
vicinity of KRST until later this evening as the cold front tracks
into the area. Radar imagery shows thunderstorms beginning to
develop along the Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota border. The
atmosphere will continue to destabilize through 11/0000Z, with
instability and shear profiles and high resolution models
suggesting discrete storms growing upscale into lines of strong
to severe thunderstorms. These storms will focus across western
Wisconsin between 10/1900Z through 11/0000Z. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing all hazards, including wind gusts in
excess of 50kts, large hail, and few tornadoes across the area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...NWS
AVIATION...NWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-111230-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong storms are possible through early this morning, with strong
wind gusts being the main threat.

Severe weather is likely across the region this afternoon and
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, and
multiple tornadoes will be the main threats. Locally heavy rain
will also a hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Depending on how storms evolve on Wednesday afternoon, there
there could be a risk for severe weather over northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin early Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 11 am this morning covering the risk
for severe thunderstorms.

Barendse

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Potosi                  42.69N 90.71W
06/10/2026  E61 MPH          Grant              WI   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
119 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Platteville       42.69N 90.44W
06/10/2026  M60 MPH          Grant              WI   AWOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
123 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Platteville       42.69N 90.44W
06/10/2026  M68 MPH          Grant              WI   AWOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
133 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Stitzer                 42.93N 90.62W
06/10/2026  E65 MPH          Grant              WI   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
134 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Livingston              42.90N 90.43W
06/10/2026  E85 MPH          Grant              WI   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
147 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Livingston          42.90N 90.49W
06/10/2026  E74 MPH          Grant              WI   Trained Spotter

&&