Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this morning, primarily
  along and north of I-90. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  primary threats.

- Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are likely this
  afternoon into this evening with very large hail, damaging
  winds, and tornadoes possible. Locally heavy rain is also
  possible.

- Another conditional threat for severe weather exists Thursday
  afternoon across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. All
  hazards including heavy rainfall are possible.

- Relatively quieter conditions are expected Friday through the
  start of next week with cooler temperatures and periodic
  chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Morning: Strong to Severe Storm Potential

"Messy" is the word that comes to mind when thinking about how to
best describe the evolution of today's severe weather potential.

Several rounds of severe weather appear possible today, but can
largely be broken into two timeframes, the first being from
early to mid morning. A warm front and associated 925-850hPa low
level jet currently situated over eastern Nebraska/northwest
Iowa lifts northward during the overnight hours with MUCAPE
values of 1500-2500 J/kg building in along with it. HRRR/RAP
soundings depict this instability largely residing above the
warm nose in the 700-850hPa associated with the warm air
advection ahead of the approaching front, suggesting that storms
that develop should be elevated. The biggest uncertainty is
if/where storms are able to form given on the capping in place.
700hPa temperatures in the 10.02z RAP sit around 12C which will
act to suppress upward motions across much of the region.
However, cooler temperatures above 700hPa will support mid-level
lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km, posing a threat for large hail and
some modest DCAPE around 850-1000 J/kg would support damaging
wind potential in storms that do develop. Effective bulk shear
does appear to be fairly limited though, generally only
15-20kts, which would hinder the longevity of stronger storms
that develop.

Currently thinking those areas along and north of I-90 will see
the greatest risk for strong to severe storms with this initial
round where forcing is maximized and capping is minimized. Some
isolated cells may be able to develop across those areas south
of I-90, but currently thinking capping will be too strong
across these areas and will miss out on this first round
entirely.

This Afternoon and Evening: Additional Rounds of Severe Thunderstorms

The second timeframe for severe thunderstorms is focused during
this afternoon into this evening and will be the messiest from
a development standpoint, but potentially the most impactful.
Warm surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints
upwards of 70 degrees will support SBCAPE values of 2500-3500
J/kg through the afternoon and evening hours. 0-6km bulk shear
will be on the increase through the day as well, becoming
35-45kts, although still somewhat displaced from model
convection. Regardless, storms developing in this environment
should quickly become severe. More interestingly is the low
level shear, upwards of 25-35kts in the 0-3km layer as the low
level jet increases across the region with low level curvature
depicted in model hodographs which would support rotating
updrafts as 0-1km SRH of 100+ m2/s2 exists through the
afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be fairly
steep, generally 6.5-7.5 C/km.

All hazards are on the table during the afternoon and evening
hours. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail is
expected to develop with storms that develop initially in a
discrete to semi-discrete mode with the potential for tornadoes
as well. However, the slightly displaced deep layer shear may
result in storms quickly congealing into a linear mode supported
by the 0-3km shear with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
the favored hazards. Heavy rain with rates of 0.5-1 inch is also
possible, although widespread flooding is not anticipated.

Despite the favorable parameters for severe weather, plenty of
disagreement exists amongst the various CAMs regarding the
evolution of remnant outflows/MCVs from the morning's convection
as these will be the primary catalysts for convective
initiation, which reduces confidence in where these storms
actually develop. The first area to watch is central Iowa as a
line of convection is depicted to lift northward into northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin in the afternoon additional
scattered development behind this line.

As we head into the evening, a surface cold front is expected
to shift southeast across the region from central Minnesota
providing another focus for convective development, which will
be the second area to watch. The 10.00z HRRR is by far the most
rambunctious with convective development along this front, and by
the time the surface cold front moves into the region there is
the possibility that the atmosphere is thoroughly worked over
and any additional storms that do develop along the front will
struggle to become severe. However, models continue to suggest
SBCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg will exist along the front with
40-45kts of 0-6km shear which would support severe thunderstorms
in a linear mode. Damaging winds would be the primary hazards
with the tornado threat largely dependent on how stable the near
surface layer is by that point. However, tornadoes certainly
can't be ruled out at this point, especially in bowing segments
given a nearly perpendicular orientation of the 0-3km shear
vector to the boundary.

Overall confidence in the evolution of this afternoon's severe
threat remains low and likely won't increase until storms begin
to develop along the aforementioned outflows/MCVs, but
confidence in hazard type remains medium to high. Ensure you
have multiple ways to receive warnings today!

Thursday: Conditional Severe Storm Potential, Heavy Rain

Additional severe storm potential presents itself on Thursday
as a an area of low pressure ejects off the central Rockies
before translating northeastward into the Great Lakes region.
The favored trajectory of this feature brings it directly over
our area with those in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin
within the warm sector. How far north the warm front makes it
will largely be a function of how today's weather plays out as
the cold front may be able to advance further south than
currently depicted.

Regardless, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg build into those areas
within the warm sector while 0-6km shear of 45-60kts is depicted
in the 10.03z RAP, although this may work against storm
development given the skinny CAPE profiles depicted in model
soundings. Regardless, if storms develop in this environment,
all severe hazards will be possible.

Heavy rainfall also looks to be favorable during this period.
PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches, above the 90th percentile of
climatology combined with the skinny profiles previously
mentioned, and warm cloud depths in excess of 10kft would
support heavy rainfall. Mean 24hr QPF in the 09.19z NBM does
suggest 1-1.5 inches of rain is possible through the day
Thursday with an 20-30% chance for over 2 inches of rain, both
of which are primarily focused over northeast Iowa into central
Wisconsin.

Friday - Early Next Week: Periodic Rain Chances and Cooler

Relatively quieter conditions close out the week as the primary
trough axis pivots into the eastern Great Lakes region, setting
up zonal flow aloft over much of the northern United States.
There is some potential for precipitation through the weekend,
mainly on Saturday as the deterministic guidance resolves a
surface boundary shifting southeastward through the Upper
Mississippi River Valley associated with a 700hPa shortwave
trough sinking southward from a vorticity maxima over
Manitoba/Ontario. Probabilities of rainfall during this period
sit around 30-60% in both the 09.19z NBM and 09.12z LREF with
the highest confidence in rainfall potential located over
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

Behind this boundary, cooler temperatures look to arrive to
start the new week as another shortwave trough sinks
southeastward through the United States, setting up an area of
lower heights across the Upper Midwest. Plenty of variation
exists regarding timing and location of this upper level feature
which leads to a fairly large temperature spread in the
NWP/AIWP ensemble guidance, but the consistent trend amongst
these suites is towards cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected again overnight as low level
moisture remains fixated over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. A line of thunderstorms currently over northwest
Iowa/southwest Minnesota is expected to move northeastward over
the next several hours, generally northwest of a line from KAUM
to KMDZ. Gusty winds are expected throughout the day, generally
20-30KT from the south. Additional rounds of thunderstorms are
expected throughout the afternoon and evening, but confidence in
overall location/timing is fairly low. A cold front moves
through the region towards the end of the TAF period, shifting
winds to the west and bringing VFR conditions.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Falkinham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-111230-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
317 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong storms are possible through early this morning, with strong
wind gusts being the main threat.

Severe weather is likely across the region this afternoon and
evening. Very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, and
multiple tornadoes will be the main threats. Locally heavy rain
will also a hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Depending on how storms evolve on Wednesday afternoon, there
there could be a risk for severe weather over northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin early Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 11 am this morning covering the risk
for severe thunderstorms.

Barendse

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
323 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ086-087-100900-
Olmsted MN-Dodge MN-
323 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OLMSTED AND
NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 323 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mantorville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Oronoco around 335 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Kings Park, Douglas,
Oxbow Park, Danesville, Berne, Highway 52 And 55th Northwest, Highway
57 And 570th Street, County Roads 6 And 15, Genoa, and Highway 52 And
County 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9275 4419 9237 4393 9269 4402 9284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0823Z 214DEG 37KT 4405 9272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Falkinham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
354 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ079-100930-
Wabasha MN-
354 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WABASHA COUNTY THROUGH
430 AM CDT...

At 354 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mazeppa, or 17 miles south of Red Wing, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Wabasha
County, including the following locations... Dumfries, Rattelsnake
Point, Oak Center, Bluff Valley Campground, Maple Springs, Gilbert
Valley, Zumbro Falls, West Albany, Bear Valley, and Highway 63 And
County 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4444 9243 4446 9241
      4445 9224 4440 9206 4437 9200 4420 9249
      4426 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 236DEG 34KT 4431 9245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Falkinham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
458 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MNZ079-WIZ032-033-101030-
Wabasha MN-Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
458 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WABASHA...BUFFALO
AND NORTHWESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT...

At 458 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kellogg, or near Wabasha, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wabasha and Alma around 505 AM CDT.
  Modena around 515 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pioneer Campground,
Cream, Mondovi Airfield, County Roads F And K K, Rattlesnake Ridge,
The Borst Valley Area, Eleva, Urne, Kruger Campground, and Gilmanton.

This includes Interstate 94 near mile marker 88.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 9215 4441 9208 4459 9202 4459 9117
      4419 9196 4419 9200 4431 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 231DEG 33KT 4431 9203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
531 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ017-029-101115-
Taylor WI-Clark WI-
531 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM CDT...

At 531 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Jump River to 9 miles southeast of Sheldon
to near Stanley. Movement was northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Jump River around 535 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Polley, The Mondeaux
Flowage, Perkinstown, Highway M And Joe Martin Road, Esadore Lake,
Eidsvold, Donald, North Twin Lake, Gilman, and County Roads D And N.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4512 9004 4512 9020 4503 9020 4503 9031
      4500 9032 4490 9092 4538 9092 4538 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1031Z 225DEG 59KT 4539 9081 4520 9084 4500 9098

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
614 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

WIZ029-033-034-101145-
Jackson WI-Trempealeau WI-Clark WI-
614 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CLARK...
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH
645 AM CDT...

At 614 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blair, or 11 miles southeast of Whitehall, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Merrillan and Alma Center around 630 AM CDT.
  Hatfield around 640 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Franklin, Hixton, East
Fork Campground, Sand Pillow, Wildcat Mound, Taylor, Highway 10 And
Bald Peak Road, Vaudreuil, Lake Arbutus, and Perry Creek Recreation
Area.

This includes Interstate 94 between mile markers 102 and 117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4414 9115 4428 9129 4463 9077 4441 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1114Z 233DEG 40KT 4428 9112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KB