Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic severe weather and flash flooding will be possible
  into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

After a slight southern push this morning, the quasi-stationary
boundary that's been the catalyst for the showers/storms
overnight and this morning has been slowly lifting northward
over the past few hours. CAM guidance largely suggests the
ongoing convective development wanes and moves eastward through
the late morning as the low-level jet weakens and the supporting
upper level wave transitions eastward.

A brief lull in development may occur for some, primarily west
of the Mississippi River before another shortwave shifts
northward atop the boundary while the low level jet again strengthens
into it. As mentioned in the discussion below, additional heavy
rainfall is expected to occur across portions of northeast Iowa
and southeast Minnesota this afternoon/evening where these
storms develop though where exactly this boundary stalls out is
uncertain and will dictate where the heaviest rain falls. Regardless,
flooding concerns exist across northeast Iowa and especially
over southeast Minnesota where 5 to 8 inches of rain fell
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

Today and Tonight

After the morning convection, there is much uncertainty on
whether storms will redevelop during the afternoon or not. Many
of the CAMs are dry, but the HRRR and RAP13 show another round
of showers and storms developing mainly along and south of
Interstate 94. These then linger into tonight. Any severe
weather threat would be pulsey this afternoon and highly
dependent upon the potential of a mesoscale convective complex
moving into the area tonight. The main severe weather threats
would be damaging winds, large hail, and maybe isolated
tornadoes.

Like overnight, the precipitable water vapor will range from 2
to 2.5 inches and the warm cloud depths will be over 4 km. As a
result, any storms will be highly efficient rain producers. The
24-hour QPF ensemble probability-matched shows a potential for 3
to 5 inches of rain mainly south of Interstate 90.

Friday into the Weekend

A frontal boundary will meander across the forecast area as
shortwave trough and surface lows move through the weekend. The
timing of these waves is rather uncertain, but as they move
through the region the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear will increase
ahead of them and this will provide a chance of supercells and
bow echos.

Precipitable water values will remain around 2 inches through
the 4th and then gradually decrease to around 1.5 inches as the
boundary finally shifts south. Warm cloud layer depths will
remain around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of
heavy rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Showers and storms continue across the region this afternoon,
generally along a line from central Wisconsin into northeast
Iowa. Coverage of these showers and storms is expected to
increase through the afternoon into this evening, but the
greatest impacts look to be primarily be along and south of
I-90. A bit of a lull in storm activity is possible overnight
generally from 06z-12z, but there is a lot of uncertainty
regarding this as model solutions vary quite a bit in
timing/placement of storms. Showers/storms move eastward towards
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

During the evening, rainfall totals were up to 3 inches. With
precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches and
warm cloud depths over 4 km, these storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 6-hour QPF ensemble probability-
matched mean from 02.06z and 02.12z has some rain totals in the
2 to 5 inch range. This could result in some flash flooding
along and south of Interstate 90.

Through at least July 4, precipitable water values will remain
around 2 to 2.5 inches and warm cloud layer depths will be
around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of heavy
rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WIZ041-042-053>055-061.
MN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MNZ087-088-094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
     030.

&&

UPDATE...Falkinham
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Falkinham
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1113 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-032015-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1113 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periodic storms will occur through tonight. Some of the storms
may become severe this afternoon and tonight. The main threats
will be damaging winds, hail, and potentially a tornado.

Elevated water levels are present across much of the area and
additional moderate to heavy rain will accompany any
thunderstorms. Additional flooding and water rises are possible
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic thunderstorms will occur Friday and Saturday. Some of
these may become severe, especially storms early Friday morning.

Elevated water levels are present across much of the area and
additional moderate to heavy rain will accompany any thunderstorms
that occur through Friday and Saturday. Additional flooding and
water rises are possible Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed periodically into the weekend.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for this afternoon at 2 PM.

APF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1027 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Mabel             43.56N 91.75W
07/02/2026                   Fillmore           MN   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report from law enforcement of water
            over roadway on County Rd 29 North of Mabel.
            Time of flood estimated using radar derived
            data.

&&

JAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ008-021615-
Mitchell IA-
1042 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH
1115 AM CDT...

At 1042 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Osage, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stacyville around 1050 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Meyer, Osage Spring
Park, Mitchell, County Roads T 54 And A 31, Pioneer State Park,
McIntire, Highway 218 And County T 40, Little Cedar, Bailey, and
Highway 18 And County T 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9274 4350 9262 4345 9255 4339 9255
      4325 9288 4332 9295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 232DEG 27KT 4334 9283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ferguson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     Flood            2 ESE Brice Prairie     43.93N 91.26W
07/02/2026                   La Crosse          WI   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report. Flooding over roadway
            affecting a commonly flooded low lying area
            in Midway.

&&

JAW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     Flood            6 SSE La Crosse         43.75N 91.19W
07/02/2026                   La Crosse          WI   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report: Water over roadway of Old
            Town Hall Road. Time of flooding unknown.

&&

JAW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1106 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 AM     Flood            Rockland                43.91N 90.93W
07/02/2026                   La Crosse          WI   Public

            Delayed report: Water over roadway of CTH U
            near Rockland. Time estimated. Water has
            receded.

&&

JAW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1110 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     Flood            5 SSE La Crosse         43.76N 91.21W
07/02/2026                   La Crosse          WI   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report of flood debris impacting
            railroad. Time estimated.

&&

JAW