River Flood Warning 28, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
648 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic severe weather and flash flooding will be possible
  into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

Overnight

As a shortwave trough over southern Wisconsin moves away from
the area overnight, the shower and thunderstorm coverage will
gradually decrease through 3 am and then the coverage should
once again increase as a shortwave trough moves out of southern
South Dakota and northern Nebraska and along the Minnesota and
Iowa border. This convection will likely be initially along the
Interstate 90 corridor and then gradually sink south as it
develops a cold pool.

With precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches and
warm cloud depths over 4 km, these storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 6-hour QPF ensemble probability-
matched mean from 02.06z and 02.12z has some rain totals in the
2 to 5 inch range. This could result in some flash flooding
along and south of Interstate 90.

Today and Tonight

After the morning convection, there is much uncertainty on
whether storms will redevelop during the afternoon or not. Many
of the CAMs are dry, but the HRRR and RAP13 show another round
of showers and storms developing mainly along and south of
Interstate 94. These then linger into tonight. Any severe
weather threat would be pulsey this afternoon and highly
dependent upon the potential of a mesoscale convective complex
moving into the area tonight. The main severe weather threats
would be damaging winds, large hail, and maybe isolated
tornadoes.

Like overnight, the precipitable water vapor will range from 2
to 2.5 inches and the warm cloud depths will be over 4 km. As a
result, any storms will be highly efficient rain producers. The
24-hour QPF ensemble probability-matched shows a potential for 3
to 5 inches of rain mainly south of Interstate 90.

Friday into the Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026Weekend

A frontal boundary will meander across the forecast area as
shortwave trough and surface lows move through the weekend. The
timing of these waves is rather uncertain, but as they move
through the region the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear will increase
ahead of them and this will provide a chance of supercells and
bow echos.

Precipitable water values will remain around 2 inches through
the 4th and then gradually decrease to around 1.5 inches as the
boundary finally shifts south. Warm cloud layer depths will
remain around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of
heavy rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Showers and storms will move out of the between 02.14 and
02.16z. Another round of showers and storms may move into the
area this afternoon followed by another one after 03.09z. These
storms will produce IFR/MVFR ceilings at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

During the evening, rainfall totals were up to 3 inches. With
precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches and
warm cloud depths over 4 km, these storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 6-hour QPF ensemble probability-
matched mean from 02.06z and 02.12z has some rain totals in the
2 to 5 inch range. This could result in some flash flooding
along and south of Interstate 90.

Through at least July 4, precipitable water values will remain
around 2 to 2.5 inches and warm cloud layer depths will be
around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of heavy
rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
301 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-031100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
301 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periodic storms will occur through mid-morning and then they could
potentially redevelop this afternoon and tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe this afternoon and tonight. The main
threats will be damaging winds, hail, isolated tornadoes, and
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding continues on
Friday and possibly into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed periodically into the weekend.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     Rain             Elkton                  43.66N 92.71W
07/02/2026  M7.00 Inch       Mower              MN   Public

&&

JSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
703 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 AM     Rain             Melvina                 43.80N 90.77W
07/02/2026  M5.00 Inch       Monroe             WI   Public

&&

JSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
704 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     Rain             2 SW Austin             43.65N 93.00W
07/02/2026  E2.10 Inch       Mower              MN   Public

&&

JSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
706 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     Rain             Wykoff                  43.71N 92.27W
07/02/2026  M6.29 Inch       Fillmore           MN   Public

&&

JSB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     Rain             Harmony                 43.55N 92.01W
07/02/2026  M4.25 Inch       Fillmore           MN   Public

&&

JSB