Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

082 
WGUS73 KARX 021253
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
753 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

MNC055-021303-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260702T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston MN-
753 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY...

The heaviest rain has ended. Localized flooding may continue with
additional lighter rainfall, but flash flooding is no longer expected
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9173 4357 9173 4360 9127 4350 9123

$$

NRF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
141 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic severe weather and flash flooding will be possible
  into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

Overnight

As a shortwave trough over southern Wisconsin moves away from
the area overnight, the shower and thunderstorm coverage will
gradually decrease through 3 am and then the coverage should
once again increase as a shortwave trough moves out of southern
South Dakota and northern Nebraska and along the Minnesota and
Iowa border. This convection will likely be initially along the
Interstate 90 corridor and then gradually sink south as it
develops a cold pool.

With precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches and
warm cloud depths over 4 km, these storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 6-hour QPF ensemble probability-
matched mean from 02.06z and 02.12z has some rain totals in the
2 to 5 inch range. This could result in some flash flooding
along and south of Interstate 90.

Today and Tonight

After the morning convection, there is much uncertainty on
whether storms will redevelop during the afternoon or not. Many
of the CAMs are dry, but the HRRR and RAP13 show another round
of showers and storms developing mainly along and south of
Interstate 94. These then linger into tonight. Any severe
weather threat would be pulsey this afternoon and highly
dependent upon the potential of a mesoscale convective complex
moving into the area tonight. The main severe weather threats
would be damaging winds, large hail, and maybe isolated
tornadoes.

Like overnight, the precipitable water vapor will range from 2
to 2.5 inches and the warm cloud depths will be over 4 km. As a
result, any storms will be highly efficient rain producers. The
24-hour QPF ensemble probability-matched shows a potential for 3
to 5 inches of rain mainly south of Interstate 90.

Friday into the Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026Weekend

A frontal boundary will meander across the forecast area as
shortwave trough and surface lows move through the weekend. The
timing of these waves is rather uncertain, but as they move
through the region the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear will increase
ahead of them and this will provide a chance of supercells and
bow echos.

Precipitable water values will remain around 2 inches through
the 4th and then gradually decrease to around 1.5 inches as the
boundary finally shifts south. Warm cloud layer depths will
remain around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of
heavy rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue for the TAF sites
through at 02.14z. Ceilings and visibilities will occasionally
be IFR/MVFR with thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2026

During the evening, rainfall totals were up to 3 inches. With
precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5 inches and
warm cloud depths over 4 km, these storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 6-hour QPF ensemble probability-
matched mean from 02.06z and 02.12z has some rain totals in the
2 to 5 inch range. This could result in some flash flooding
along and south of Interstate 90.

Through at least July 4, precipitable water values will remain
around 2 to 2.5 inches and warm cloud layer depths will be
around 4 km. This will result in additional rounds of heavy
rain. Flood watches may eventually be needed.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
301 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-031100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
301 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periodic storms will occur through mid-morning and then they could
potentially redevelop this afternoon and tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe this afternoon and tonight. The main
threats will be damaging winds, hail, isolated tornadoes, and
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding continues on
Friday and possibly into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed periodically into the weekend.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
522 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 AM     Flash Flood      1 S Dexter              43.71N 92.70W
07/02/2026                   Mower              MN   Law Enforcement

            Interstate 90- Elkton to Dexter, East and
            West bound is closed due to flooding.

&&

JSB