Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Gaylord, MI

591 
WWUS53 KAPX 291856
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MIC031-291906-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-260629T1915Z/
Cheboygan MI-
256 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHEBOYGAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4545 8461 4557 8459 4558 8425 4537 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 279DEG 13KT 4550 8444 

$$

NSC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this morning, best potential NW
  lower MI, then eastern UP into the early afternoon.

- Hot and humid conditions through this week, heat indices between
  95F to 105F Tuesday through Thursday.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through this upcoming week, a
  few periods of stronger storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning
within a warm and moist advection regime, with instability axis
northwest to southeast across the Upper Midwest nosing into western
MI. The best elevated instability and moisture will be across
northwest lower Michigan (where the current Marginal risk for severe
weather lies). Moderate amounts of shear could result in some
elevated hailers, although some of the convective allowing models
are showing a convective complex congealing over Lake
Michigan/Wisconsin and clipping the Marginal risk across our area
this morning, which could produce strong winds in some places. Given
the instability, shear, and moist airmass, locally heavy rain,
localized hail, and strong winds will be the primary concerns this
morning, with some showers and storms lingering through the
day. Current radar imagery is not quite as robust in WI as some
of the previous guidance suggested, so worth monitoring as the
POP fcst may be a little off.

Heat will generally be the focus the rest of the week. 596-597 dam
upper high builds across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, with
anomalous heights across northern MI. Most recent model guidance
runs do show this upper high slowly meandering eastward with time
through the end of the week, which continues the theme of
uncertainty in regards to the heat. That being said, it will be hot
and very humid, especially for northern MI, this entire week, so
regardless, heat stress will be high and compounded with time.
After the showers and storms today, a pretty hot day is expected
with heat indices in the 80s and 90s, hottest GTB and southwest
(thought about an advisory for that region but with the
uncertainty and the focus being Tuesday, twas will forego).
Hottest day appears to be Tuesday, with heat indices in the mid
90s to triple digits. Then we watch how much convection on
Wednesday and Thursday tries to impact the high temperatures.
Current forecast has highs well into the 90s most areas both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices in the mid 90s to mid
100s.

Heat is a compounding hazard, and so several days of heat indices
near 100F may mean more than a single day of a heat index 105F.
Because of this, Extreme Heat Watches have been issued for all of
northern lower MI, the hottest temperatures and heat indices being
across northeast lower MI. Whether some sections of this will
be upgraded to Advisories or Warnings, will be up to the day
crew most likely. The message remains the same regardless, heat
stress will be high this week due to the heat and humidity.
Check on those sensitive to heat, outside workers, and pets.

Investigating the other convective threats through the week yields
modest southwest flow overspreading the Upper Midwest, including
northern MI, overtop of this moist and unstable airmass. As the high
pressure slides to the east, this may open the door for subtle
perturbations and convective complexes to ride the northern
periphery of the ridge, resulting in showers and thunderstorms across
northern MI. Given the amount of instability, expected convection
upstream, and increased flow aloft, there could be severe threats at
times for sure. Current guidance indicates the later Tuesday
time frame and the Thursday to Friday being potentially active.
As far as Tuesday is concerned, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms is forecast, with portions of the Eastern
UP in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5). Thus, isolated severe
storms are possible during this time frame. Looking at the
later Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame mostly. Moderate
shear and plentiful instability is usually a hail/wind risk,
especially if any bowing segments or mesoscale convective
complexes can push into northern MI. Many details to hash out
beyond that in regards to convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen on radar slowly
tracking west to east across the region. Mainly VFR conditions
expected to persist, with drops in categories possible as
stronger storms continue, mainly across PLN. Winds will decrease
tonight with BR/FG/low stratus becoming likely in the morning
hours (dropping conditions to IFR to even LIFR at times), but
should burn off as we head into the afternoon, returning to VFR.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...NSC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Flash Flood      Northport               45.13N 85.62W
06/29/2026                   Leelanau           MI   Public

            4.81 inches reported along with water over
            multiple roadways.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Flash Flood      Central Lake            45.07N 85.27W
06/29/2026                   Antrim             MI   Public

            Video of water over road ways in Central
            Lake, MI.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     Flash Flood      Good Hart               45.57N 85.11W
06/29/2026                   Emmet              MI   Public

            Picture of flooding up to a house in Good
            Hart, MI. Reporting water entering the
            garage and basement.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Rain             6 SSW Beaver Island     45.63N 85.61W
06/29/2026  M1.72 Inch       LMZ362             MI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW1109 Beaver Island. 6 hour
            total.

&&

JZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Waterspout       4 WNW Harbor Springs    45.44N 85.06W
06/29/2026                   LMZ342             MI   Public

            Waterspout reported over northern Little
            Traverse Bay, viewed from Petoskey.

&&

JZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
227 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSW Gaylord           45.02N 84.68W
06/29/2026  M41 MPH          Otsego             MI   ASOS

            ASOS station KGLR Gaylord - Otsego County
            Airport.

&&

JZ