Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Gaylord, MI

629 
WGUS73 KAPX 291919
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MIC047-292030-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-260629T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Emmet MI-
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL EMMET COUNTY...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall 
is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pellston, Pleasant View, Stutsmanville, Brutus and Good Hart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4559 8510 4556 8473 4554 8473 4552 8473
      4551 8473 4549 8473 4549 8481 4548 8496
      4550 8510 4552 8512 4558 8512

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

NSC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this morning, best potential NW
  lower MI, then eastern UP into the early afternoon.

- Hot and humid conditions through this week, heat indices between
  95F to 105F Tuesday through Thursday.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through this upcoming week, a
  few periods of stronger storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning
within a warm and moist advection regime, with instability axis
northwest to southeast across the Upper Midwest nosing into western
MI. The best elevated instability and moisture will be across
northwest lower Michigan (where the current Marginal risk for severe
weather lies). Moderate amounts of shear could result in some
elevated hailers, although some of the convective allowing models
are showing a convective complex congealing over Lake
Michigan/Wisconsin and clipping the Marginal risk across our area
this morning, which could produce strong winds in some places. Given
the instability, shear, and moist airmass, locally heavy rain,
localized hail, and strong winds will be the primary concerns this
morning, with some showers and storms lingering through the
day. Current radar imagery is not quite as robust in WI as some
of the previous guidance suggested, so worth monitoring as the
POP fcst may be a little off.

Heat will generally be the focus the rest of the week. 596-597 dam
upper high builds across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, with
anomalous heights across northern MI. Most recent model guidance
runs do show this upper high slowly meandering eastward with time
through the end of the week, which continues the theme of
uncertainty in regards to the heat. That being said, it will be hot
and very humid, especially for northern MI, this entire week, so
regardless, heat stress will be high and compounded with time.
After the showers and storms today, a pretty hot day is expected
with heat indices in the 80s and 90s, hottest GTB and southwest
(thought about an advisory for that region but with the
uncertainty and the focus being Tuesday, twas will forego).
Hottest day appears to be Tuesday, with heat indices in the mid
90s to triple digits. Then we watch how much convection on
Wednesday and Thursday tries to impact the high temperatures.
Current forecast has highs well into the 90s most areas both
Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices in the mid 90s to mid
100s.

Heat is a compounding hazard, and so several days of heat indices
near 100F may mean more than a single day of a heat index 105F.
Because of this, Extreme Heat Watches have been issued for all of
northern lower MI, the hottest temperatures and heat indices being
across northeast lower MI. Whether some sections of this will
be upgraded to Advisories or Warnings, will be up to the day
crew most likely. The message remains the same regardless, heat
stress will be high this week due to the heat and humidity.
Check on those sensitive to heat, outside workers, and pets.

Investigating the other convective threats through the week yields
modest southwest flow overspreading the Upper Midwest, including
northern MI, overtop of this moist and unstable airmass. As the high
pressure slides to the east, this may open the door for subtle
perturbations and convective complexes to ride the northern
periphery of the ridge, resulting in showers and thunderstorms across
northern MI. Given the amount of instability, expected convection
upstream, and increased flow aloft, there could be severe threats at
times for sure. Current guidance indicates the later Tuesday
time frame and the Thursday to Friday being potentially active.
As far as Tuesday is concerned, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms is forecast, with portions of the Eastern
UP in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5). Thus, isolated severe
storms are possible during this time frame. Looking at the
later Tuesday and Tuesday night time frame mostly. Moderate
shear and plentiful instability is usually a hail/wind risk,
especially if any bowing segments or mesoscale convective
complexes can push into northern MI. Many details to hash out
beyond that in regards to convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen on radar slowly
tracking west to east across the region. Mainly VFR conditions
expected to persist, with drops in categories possible as
stronger storms continue, mainly across PLN. Winds will decrease
tonight with BR/FG/low stratus becoming likely in the morning
hours (dropping conditions to IFR to even LIFR at times), but
should burn off as we head into the afternoon, returning to VFR.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-097>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ344>346.

&&

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...NSC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1218 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Rain             Northport               45.14N 85.62W
06/29/2026  M5.50 Inch       Leelanau           MI   Public

            Storm Total Rain.

&&

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1219 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     Flash Flood      Northport               45.13N 85.61W
06/29/2026                   Leelanau           MI   Public

            Video of water over road ways in Northport
            MI.

&&

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1241 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     Flash Flood      Central Lake            45.08N 85.26W
06/29/2026                   Antrim             MI   Public

            Darmon Pl is closed due to flooding.

&&

ELD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
120 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MIZ016-017-291745-
Cheboygan MI-Emmet MI-
120 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHEBOYGAN AND EAST
CENTRAL EMMET COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 120 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pellston, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheboygan, Pellston, Indian River, Alanson, Brutus, Topinabee, Burt
Lake, Levering, Mullet Lake, Burt Lake State Park, and Riggsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4545 8489 4564 8488 4568 8448 4536 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 270DEG 20KT 4556 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Flash Flood      Northport               45.13N 85.62W
06/29/2026                   Leelanau           MI   Public

            4.81 inches reported along with water over
            multiple roadways.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Flash Flood      Central Lake            45.07N 85.27W
06/29/2026                   Antrim             MI   Public

            Video of water over road ways in Central
            Lake, MI.

&&