Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms today...

- Rain and storms Wednesday into Thursday...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge getting squashed over the PacNW as a zonal 120kt upper jet
noses into British Columbia (nice firehose of Pacific moisture into
western Canada); broad troughing still holding onto the bulk of the
eastern US/Canada, centered on a 540dm upper low over northern
Manitoba. Northwesterly 80-100kt polar jet max on the back of the
upper low, stretching from central Canada to IL and the OH
Valley...and a zonal 120kt subtropical jet stretches from southern
MO to VA...with much warmer and more moist air across the
southeastern US (pwats in excess of 2in over the Gulf Coast states).
Still several lobes of energy around the perimeter of the longwave
trough...most notably over the Upper Midwest (a neat little spinny
over central MN at 4z) and Saskatchewan...with a bit of energy over
southern Ontario still sliding by to our north, loosely connected to
said MN spinny...and some moisture is pooling along a loose WSW-ENE
oriented boundary between these two features...with weakening
stability across the area thanks to cooling aloft and some WSWly
warm/moist advection in the lower levels (16C at 2z over western
IA). Convection still ongoing ahead of this even as of 4z. 0C
isotherm now to our north over northern Ontario...but some cooler
(+8C) air wrapping around behind the aforementioned spinny in MN,
aiding in a little better surface response (plus PV max is a little
better defined)...with baroclinic zone stretching back northward
into central Canada. Low-level col region over the central Plains
with some weak lee-side troughing over southeastern CO.

Expecting showers/storms will be ongoing this morning ahead of PV
maxima to our west. This should become negatively tilted with time
as it swings across the state...resulting in continued chances for
precipitation as surface cyclone occludes in the
vicinity...ultimately fading out tonight as the PV max moves away
and ridging builds in aloft. Upstream...will already be seeing
influence of incoming PV max on the pattern over the central US/MS
Valley, with surface cyclogenesis still forecast to occur tonight
into Wednesday...resulting in anomalous, sub-1000mb surface low over
the Upper Midwest by Wednesday morning (3 standard deviations below
the mean...which is significant). Attm...this is expected to track
generally eastward across the Midwest through the Great Lakes, with
attendant rain/storms...exiting stage right by Thursday. Somewhat
fall-like northwest flow prevails through the end of the week...with
additional niblets of energy swinging through the Upper Great Lakes
Thursday night-Friday. The weekend forecast attm remains a bit
unclear, pending the evolution of shortwave troughing over the
central continent...though very broadly, it appears we could remain
in the vicinity of a baroclinic zone into early next week...which
could keep things a bit on the active side.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Showers/storms today...think we should see an area of showers/storms
(or at least, mid-clouds) sneak in from the west early this morning
(probably around 12z-ish)...though antecedent dry air mass could
slow rain reaching the ground. Primary concern with this morning's
activity is how much cloud cover it will leave around going into the
afternoon; certainly possible it could keep the mid and low-levels
more stable and reduce the threat of afternoon storms to some degree
(though think we should still have some instability/weak stability
aloft for this system to work with). Do wonder if the dry air could
bust up the early morning clouds/convection quicker and lead to a
quicker rebound in diurnal heating...which would result in several
hundred joules of surface-based CAPE this afternoon as forcing aloft
generally improves with the approaching trough axis. Will need to
watch cloud trends today, to see if the better diurnal heating will
be across NE Lower/Saginaw Bay region or across NW Lower in the wake
of what moves in this morning...and think we will need to keep a
close eye on things, even though better deep layer shear will likely
be to our south. I have to wonder if we will end up with any
persistent funky boundaries (watching one drape into the Tip of the
Mitt as of 7z...but will it stick around??) that could enhance low-
level directional shear, especially later today as the anticipated
surface low passes through...but it is entirely possible I am
overworrying about this latter idea.

Rain and storm threat Wednesday into Thursday....Sharp ridge axis
tonight, with much drier air, suggests moisture with the next system
may be a little slow to move in...but given that this should be a
very dynamic system, don't think it will take too long to get going.
This has a bit more of a look of a fall system than a mid-June
system, with a well-defined and occluding low, strong jet aloft
(100+kts) with signals for jet coupling in the region, along with
isentropic ascent ahead of the low. Pwats in the realm of 1-1.5in
with this setup is certainly a concern...particularly noting we
could end up in the wraparound moisture area for a prolonged
period...perhaps into 12z or so Thursday? Better moisture and
forcing could certainly end up staying to our south...and
anticipated vigorous convection to our south could rob at least some
of the moisture away from us. Still some uncertainty in the exact
track of the surface system...which throws uncertainty into the wind
forecast (not impossible we could see sustained E/SE winds 15-20kts
or more if we end up beneath the tighter pressure gradient...but
also possible we could remain under a lighter wind regime. Given the
setup, think we will still need to keep an eye on trends Wednesday
afternoon/evening, when some better deep layer shear could be close
to our southern border.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will continue to increase through the day as
shower/storm chances increase, though VFR is expected to prevail
through at least 02z. The potential for storms exists for all
northern Lower sites this afternoon into the evening, with the
possibility of brief lowered visibilities from heavier rain as
well as some gustier winds if a storm passes over a terminal...
With storms already currently popping up on radar. Lingering
low-level moisture will lead to an increase in low clouds
through the overnight hours, eventually turning conditions MVFR
to possibly even IFR ~10z with decreasing winds. Condtions look
to temporarily improve from west to east through Wednesday
morning back to VFR with increasing winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-
     346.

&&

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...NSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1144 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MIZ024-029-030-161630-
Alcona MI-Alpena MI-Oscoda MI-
1144 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ALPENA...NORTHERN
ALCONA AND EAST CENTRAL OSCODA COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

At 1144 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Curran, or 11 miles northwest of Glennie, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Curran around 1150 AM EDT.
  Barton City and Hubbard Lake around 1155 AM EDT.
  Lincoln around 1225 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Milen Township and
Mitchell Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 8324 4463 8387 4466 8392 4476 8397
      4494 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 252DEG 22KT 4472 8384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1242 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MIZ024-161745-
Alpena MI-
1242 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ALPENA COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM EDT...

At 1242 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Alpena, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpena, Ossineke, Lakewood, Cathro, and Devils Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 8328 4502 8338 4493 8344 4506 8365
      4521 8351 4521 8328 4516 8328 4510 8325
      4508 8319 4504 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 229DEG 18KT 4500 8356

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
104 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 6 S Cathro              45.07N 83.57W
06/16/2026  M40 MPH          Alpena             MI   ASOS

            ASOS station KAPN Alpena - Phelps Collins
            Field.

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Hail             2 SW Alpena             45.05N 83.48W
06/16/2026  M0.25 Inch       Alpena             MI   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
147 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Hail             9 N Saint Helen         44.49N 84.41W
06/16/2026  E1.00 Inch       Roscommon          MI   Law Enforcement

            Time estimated by radar.

&&