Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing flooding may worsen with additional rain and storms
  tonight. Highest rainfall expected south of M-72.

- Severe thunderstorm chances tonight and again Tuesday
  evening/Tuesday night with primary hazards of damaging winds
  and large hail.

- Additional rounds of rain and mild temperatures through this
  week before turning cold late this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Current forecast theme remains in good standing. Warm frontal
boundary draped over the southern reaches of the region will
remain the focus for convection as we head through the evening
into tonight. Better instability remains to our west, with
vigorous convection underway across north-central into northeast
Wisconsin. Strengthening low level jet will drive an expanding
instability axis into areas along and south of M-72. This
particular region will be the primary focus for deeper
convection, while more efficient stratiform rainfall occurs
elsewhere. Severe potential trends are tending to favor southern
and western reaches of the APX footprint, with primary hazards
being hail and gusty winds (some of which could have an
amplified impact with water-logged soils compromising root
integrity on trees).

The biggest story from this episode of convection is most
certainly the flooding potential. Two different modes of
flooding may materialize tonight. For areas north of M-32,
lighter but still efficient stratiform rainfall on saturated
soils and what is left of the snowpack may still lead to
elevated water levels... including the highly sensitive
Cheboygan River basin in far northern lower Michigan, along with
the Chain of Lakes watershed in northwest lower. In general,
this area could see 0.50 to 1.25" of rain by Tuesday morning.

The farther south one goes (M-32 and south), the potential for
repeated rounds of thunderstorms increases considerably.
Torrential rainfall rates may drive a potentially higher end
impact flash flooding event, as soils will fail to absorb all
that water. Low lying and flood prone areas may be subject to
rapid inundation from floodwaters in the event that the worst
case scenario arises... which would be rainfall in excess of
2.50" in a short period of time. In addition... with the
placement of this rainfall potentially encompassing large
portions of the Manistee and Au Sable watersheds, river level
rises may be in order again... even with these rivers already
exceeding record levels. Much to monitor tonight.

Rainfall looks to exit across the board into Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Southwest mid/upper-level flow will remain draped across the heart
of the CONUS through the middle of the week as embedded waves
progress trough the main flow. In turn, boundaries laid across
portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest will wave north and south
across the region as rounds of convection work through. A more
amplified shortwave will progress overhead during the second half of
the week, followed by brief ridging Friday before a strong, late-
season trough digs across the Great Lakes this weekend.

Forecast Details:

Primary forecast concern in the short term is expected widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight and their impact on ongoing
flooding across much of northern Michigan. Current confidence based
on latest high-res guidance and radar trends is that storms current
firing across portions of Wisconsin will mature and work across the
lake south of our area, working to limit higher rainfall potential
to a degree across portions of our area. This is due to limited
transport/support for an additional line of storms that is expected
to form across southern Minnesota and track across the lake into
northern Michigan later this evening and tonight. While this will
provide our widespread rain/storm chances, expectation is that many
areas will be limited to around 0.5-1" of additional rainfall as
opposed to much higher amounts with a stronger line of storms
working across our area.

The exception will potentially be areas south of M-72, and
especially south of M-55. Our far southern counties have the best
chance of seeing rainfall amounts in excess of 1"+ with the
potential for localized amounts of 2"+ should strong storms track
across that area. Regardless of amounts, additional rainfall tonight
will exacerbate ongoing flooding across the area -- the
magnitude/widespread nature of which is impressive for the
Northwoods. Specifically, the Au Sable River near Red Oak and the
Manistee River near Sherman are forecast to go into major flood
stage shortly this afternoon/evening.

A few strong storms, especially across far southwest portions of the
CWA, will be possible later this evening and tonight. The primary
hazards with any strong storms will be damaging winds, large hail,
and low chances for a tornado. Additional severe storms will be
possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with similar hazards
possible.

Looking ahead, additional rain chances and mild temperatures will
continue through the end of the week into this weekend. The
aforementioned strong trough will likely tank temperatures late this
weekend back down into the 30s and 40s for highs on Sunday with
overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Another round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and MVFR to IFR
producing low cigs/areas of mist expected to develop this
evening. While showers end early Tuesday, low clouds and mist
will take until late morning and afternoon to lift/scour out.
Some gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain are possible
with any stronger storms tonight. Otherwise, winds will remain
light.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...None.

&&

UPDATE...HAD
DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-150315-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again tonight into Tuesday morning,
primarily across northern lower Michigan. Severe storms are
possible with the primary hazard being damaging winds. Large hail
will also be possible.

Heavy rainfall will likely exacerbate high flows on area
watersheds. Localized flooding along inland lakeshores,
riverbanks, and other low-lying areas is possible. Potential for
flash flooding in areas that see torrential rain from repeated
thunderstorms south of M-32.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night. Severe thunderstorms are possible, with primary
hazards being large hail, gusty winds, and a low chance for a
tornado.

Heavy rainfall potential exacerbate high flows on area
watersheds. Localized flooding along inland lakeshores,
riverbanks, and other low-lying areas is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-150315-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible again tonight, primarily across the
nearshore waters off northern lower Michigan. Severe storms are
possible, with primary hazards being gusty winds and large hail
with a low chance for a waterspout.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night, primarily across the nearshore waters off northern
lower Michigan. Severe thunderstorms are possible, with primary
hazards being large hail, gusty winds, and a low chance for a
waterspout.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.