Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 PM AKST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral to continue through this
  weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Copper
  River Valley, including Glennallen and Chitina through Sunday.
  Cold Weather Advisories are in effect through Sunday for most of
  the Copper River Basin, Thompson Pass, Anchorage, Whittier, and
  Western Kenai Peninsula. Apparent temperatures well below zero
  are expected. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed to
  these temperatures.

- For the aforementioned areas, frostbite on exposed skin can
  occur in as little as 5 minutes. Prepare for the weather by
  wearing appropriate clothing, hat, and gloves. Protect your
  pipes and trickle faucets. While traveling, use caution. Carry
  extra supplies and wear your winter gear while traveling. Check
  on yourself and others who may be vulnerable to these
  temperatures.

- Most of southern Alaska should plan ahead and prepare for a
  significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern expected
  late this weekend and next week. Monitor for updates to forecast
  as details evolve through this weekend.

Cold and clear conditions remain this evening as dry, northerly
flow continues across Southcentral. Gusty winds flowing through
coastal terrain gaps are expected to persist through Saturday
until the pattern shifts late this weekend. Calm winds and clear
skies across the rest of Southcentral will continue to allow for
bitterly cold temperatures to stick around through the weekend.
Ambient high temperatures will continue to be in the single digits
above and below zero across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage,
western Kenai, Mat- Su) and in the teens for much of the north
Gulf coast (including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Low
temperatures across Cook Inlet communities and into the Mat-Su
could see low temperatures in the minus single digits to nearly 30
below. Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will likely be in the range of
20 to 30 below zero for the highs and lows of 30 to 60 below
zero. Although winds are expected to generally remain calm, any
bit of wind would drop the apparent temperatures lower.

Temperatures are set to trend relatively warmer and become more
dynamic heading into early next week. Confidence is increasing
for a return to snowfall for many locations across southern
Alaska, including Southcentral. Current thinking is still for
precipitation to begin Sunday afternoon/evening for Kodiak Island
and lift north and east through the Kenai Peninsula and northern
Gulf by midnight. Anchorage, the Susitna Valley, and Copper River
Basin are likely to see snowfall through the overnight hours
Sunday and into Monday morning. Cold surface temperatures will
likely not scour out very quickly and any gusty winds could cause
dry snow to blow and drift easily. Details of the shift towards a
more progressive and snowy pattern are expected to evolve over the
next few days. Monitor for updates to forecast.

Rux/JH

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

The forecast remains largely unchanged this afternoon. Various
lows and troughs moving across the Bering Sea will bring active
weather through early Saturday. A weak front will quickly
dissipate upon reaching the Kuskokwim Coast during the day on
Saturday. Very light snow will be possible across the YK Delta
region and for points southward along the Kuskokwim Coast. Very
little in the way of accumulation is forecast though areas may see
a dusting to up to an inch of snow through Saturday evening. The
next couple of days will remain cool for the interior Kuskokwim
Delta, as well as inland Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Cold weather advisories are in effect through Sunday
evening for wind chills as low as -35 to -45 degrees.

The main weather story, however, will continue to be a developing
940-950 mb low moving into the Bering Sea on Sunday. This low
will bring high winds to the Aleutian Chain and southern Bering. A
High Wind Watch is in effect for the Western and Central
Aleutians with potential westerly wind gusts greater than 75 mph.
The low will bring a front into Southwest Alaska by midday on
Sunday, with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow. Winter storm
watches are in effect for potential blizzard conditions
stretching from the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim
Delta down into Bristol Bay. Snow amounts will range from 6 to 12
inches with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph, especially across
Nunivak Island and the YK Delta. Snow amounts and finer details
will need to be ironed out over the next 24 hours and products
will be updated in kind.

Even as the low moves out of the region on Monday, snow chances
will likely continue into early next week across Southwest Alaska
as subsequent waves of low pressure traverse the region.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Multiple waves of low pressure moving over southern Alaska will
keep the region wet through Tuesday night with rain along the
Aleutian Chain and widespread snowfall for Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska. Expect strong northwesterly winds out of
Alaska Peninsula bays and passes as low pressure pulls east of
Prince William Sound Tuesday and Wednesday.

Guidance is hinting at another strong North Pacific low pressure
system lifting up into the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
on Thursday. There is significant disagreement regarding exact
timing and placement, but it looks likely this system will bring a
round of heavy precipitation to the southern coast of Alaska.
High winds will also be a threat with this system as it possibly
deepens to around 950mb by Friday morning. A lot may change with
this system as it is still a week away but we will keep a close
eye on it going forward.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions with light northerly winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1002 PM AKST Fri Jan 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Extreme Cold     Chitina                 61.52N 144.44W
01/02/2026  M-66 F           Copper River       AK   ASOS

            North wind at 23 mph produced a wind chill
            of -66F at 8:40pm on 1/2/2026.

&&

AM