Gale Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral to continue through this
  weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Copper
  River Valley, including Glennallen and Chitina through Sunday.
  Cold Weather Advisories are in effect through Sunday for most of
  the Copper River Basin, Thompson Pass, Anchorage, Whittier, and
  Western Kenai Peninsula. Apparent temperatures well below zero
  are expected. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed to
  these temperatures.

- Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 5 minutes.
  Prepare for the weather by wearing appropriate clothing, hat,
  and gloves. Protect your pipes and trickle faucets. While
  traveling, use caution. Carry extra supplies and wear your
  winter gear while traveling. Check on yourself and others who
  may be vulnerable to these temperatures.

- Most of southern Alaska should plan ahead and prepare for a
  significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern expected
  late this weekend and next week. Monitor for updates to forecast
  as details evolve through this weekend.

Other than the cloud cover lingering near McCarthy and Cordova,
frigid cold and clear conditions remain this morning as
northwesterly flow continues across Southcentral. Gusty winds
flowing through coastal terrain gaps are a little stronger than
expected this morning and those winds are expected to persist
until Sunday morning when the pattern shifts. Calm winds and clear
skies across the rest of Southcentral will continue to allow for
bitterly cold temperatures to stick around through the weekend.
Ambient high temperatures will continue to be in the single digits
above and below zero across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage,
western Kenai, Mat-Su) and in the teens for much of the immediate
coastline along the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound
(including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Low
temperatures across Cook Inlet communities and into the Mat-Su
could see low temperatures in the minus single digits to nearly 30
below. Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will likely be in the range of
20 to 30 below zero for the highs and lows of 30 to 60 below
zero. Although winds are expected to generally remain calm, any
bit of wind would drop the apparent temperatures lower.

Temperatures are set to trend relatively warmer and become more
dynamic heading into early next week. Confidence is increasing for
a return to snowfall for many locations across southern Alaska,
including Southcentral. Current thinking is for precipitation to
begin Sunday afternoon/evening for Kodiak Island and lift north
and east through the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound by
midnight. Anchorage could see snow by midnight, give or take a
couple hours. The Susitna Valley, the rest of the northern Gulf
coast (Cordova), and Copper River Basin are likely to see snowfall
through the overnight hours Sunday and into Monday morning. Cold
surface temperatures will likely not scour out very quickly and
any gusty winds could cause dry, fluffy snow to blow and drift
easily. Reduced visibility and blowing snow will be a potential
problem, especially of locations prone to gustier winds such as
Thompson Pass. Once stronger easterly flow moves across the Kenai
and Chugach mountains later Monday morning, there could be some
downslope drying, cutting off snowfall briefly for those on the
leeside. However, another wave of snow will quickly follow later
on Monday, with precipitation enhancement for the Cook Inlet
communities. Higher snowfall rates and accumulating snowfall
amounts is possible with the snow liquid ratios on the higher
side. Details on this shift towards a more progressive and snowy
pattern are expected to evolve over the next few days. Monitor for
updates to forecast.

Rux/JH

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

Several new products have been issued overnight. Here are
watches, warnings, and advisories currently in effect:

* UPGRADED: High Wind Warning now in effect for Western and
  Central Aleutians
* NEW: High Wind Warning for Eastern Aleutians and Southern Alaska
  Peninsula
* NEW: High Wind Watch for Pribilof Islands
* Winter Storm Watch for Kuskokwim Delta, Western Capes, Northern
  Bristol Bay coast, and inland Bristol Bay
* Cold Weather Advisories for Kuskokwim Valley, Kuskokwim Delta,
  and inland Bristol Bay

Forecast updates since yesterday: the front moving towards
Southwest Alaska has trended further east with the latest model
runs, increasing the likelihood for light snow (and areas of
blowing snow with minor visibility reductions) for Kuskokwim Delta
and the Western Capes. There have been shifts with the track of
the 940-950 mb low moving in later today. While there is still a
lot of uncertainty with the track, there has been enough run-to-
run consistency to put in place High Wind Warnings for the
Aleutian Chain and the Southern Alaska Peninsula. Models continue
to show uncertainty with high wind potential for the Pribilof
Islands, so they remain in a High Wind Watch. Precipitation-wise,
the front looks to stall out longer over Southwest Alaska, so the
overnight forecast has been updated to reflect higher snow amounts
across the entirety of Southwest Alaska.

The previous discussion has been copied below with light edits:

Various lows and troughs moving across the Bering Sea will bring
active weather through today. A weak front will quickly dissipate
upon reaching the Kuskokwim Coast during the day today. Light
snow will spread across the YK Delta region and for points
southward along the Kuskokwim Coast. Very little in the way of
accumulation is forecast though areas may see a dusting to a few
inches of snow through this evening. The next couple of days will
remain cool for the interior Kuskokwim Delta, as well as inland
Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Cold weather
advisories are in effect through Sunday evening for wind chills as
low as -35 to -50 degrees.

The main weather story, however, will continue to be a developing
940-950 mb low moving into the Bering Sea on Sunday. This low
will bring high winds to the Aleutian Chain and southern Bering.
The low will bring a front into Southwest Alaska by midday on
Sunday, with moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow. Winter storm
watches are in effect for potential blizzard conditions
stretching from the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim
Delta down into Bristol Bay. Snow amounts will range from 8 to 16
inches with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph, especially across
Nunivak Island and the YK Delta. Snow amounts and finer details
will need to be ironed out over the next 24 hours and products
will be updated in kind.

Even as the low moves out of the region on Monday, snow chances
will likely continue into early next week across Southwest Alaska
as subsequent waves of low pressure traverse the region.

-BL/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Multiple waves of low pressure moving over southern Alaska will
keep the region wet through Tuesday night with rain along the
Aleutian Chain and widespread snowfall for Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska. Expect strong northwesterly winds out of
Alaska Peninsula bays and passes as low pressure pulls east of
Prince William Sound Tuesday and Wednesday.

Guidance is hinting at another strong North Pacific low pressure
system lifting up into the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
on Thursday. There is significant disagreement regarding exact
timing and placement, but it looks likely this system will bring a
round of heavy precipitation to the southern coast of Alaska.
High winds will also be a threat with this system as it possibly
deepens to around 950mb by Friday morning. A lot may change with
this system as it is still a week away but we will keep a close
eye on it going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&