Gale Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 AM AKST Fri Jan 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Some of the coldest temperatures and wind chills of the season
  are expected across Southcentral to continue through this
  weekend. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Copper
  River Valley, including Glennallen and Chitina through Sunday.
  And Cold Weather Advisories are in effect through Sunday for
  most of the Copper River Basin, Thompson Pass, Anchorage, and
  Western Kenai Peninsula. Apparent temperatures well below zero
  are expected. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed to
  these temperatures.

- Frostbite on exposed skin can occur in as little as 5 minutes.
  Prepare for the weather by wearing appropriate clothing, hat,
  and gloves. Protect your pipes and trickle faucets. While
  traveling, use caution. Carry extra supplies and wear your
  winter gear while traveling. Check on yourself and others who
  may be vulnerable to these temperatures.

- Most of southern Alaska should plan ahead and prepare for a
  significant switch towards a snowier weather pattern is expected
  next week. Monitor for updates to forecast as details evolve
  through this weekend.

Northwesterly flow continues across Southcentral this morning.
Strong, gusty winds flowing through coastal terrain gaps are
expected to gradually decrease throughout the day today.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is projected to quickly track across
the Alaska Peninsula into the southwestern Gulf later today,
bringing a brief shot of snow with minimal accumulations to the
southernmost communities on Kodiak Island. Otherwise, the rest of
Southcentral remains dry and bitterly cold. Ambient high
temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero
across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai, Mat-Su)
and teens and 20s above zero for much of the north Gulf coast
(including Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Low
temperatures across Cook Inlet communities and into the Mat-Su
could see low temperatures in the minus single digits to nearly 30
below. Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will likely be in the range of
20 to 30 below zero for the highs and lows of 30 to 60 below
zero. Any bit of wind would drop the apparent temperatures lower
and this cold looks to stick around through Monday next week.

Although there is still considerable uncertainty in the models
heading into next week, temperatures look to trend relatively
warmer and become more dynamic. Confidence is increasing for a
return to snowfall for many locations across southern Alaska,
including Southcentral. At this time, precipitation looks to begin
later Sunday for Kodiak Island and lift north and east through
the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf before midnight. By Monday
morning, Anchorage, the Susitna Valley, and Copper River Basin
could see snowfall. Cold surface temperatures will likey not scour
out very quickly and any gusty winds could cause dry snow to blow
and drift easily. Details for the pattern shift are expected to
evolve over the next few days. Monitor for updates to forecast.

JH/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Friday through Sunday night)...

Various lows and troughs moving across the Bering Sea will bring
active weather through early Saturday, but the worst conditions
are expected later this weekend as a 940-950 mb storm force low
moves into the Bering Sea. This storm will likely bring widespread
impacts across both the Aleutian Islands and Southwest Alaska.
Here are the potential impacts that could be in store:
* High Winds (gusts > 75 mph) for the Aleutian Chain, Pribilof
  Islands, and perhaps the Southern Alaska Peninsula
* Blowing Snow for Kuskokwim Delta, Western Capes, and Northern
  Bristol Bay coast
* Moderate to heavy snow for Kuskokwim Delta, Western Capes,
  Northern Bristol Bay coast, interior Bristol Bay, and King
  Salmon area
* Light freezing rain for Northern Alaska Peninsula

Much of this forecast will depend on the track of the deep low,
with the potential for impacts to carry out past this weekend and
into early next week. We'll continue to monitor the storm and
provide updates. In the meantime, here are the products currently
in effect:

* Cold Weather Advisory in effect for Kuskokwim Delta interior,
  Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and interior Bristol Bay
* High Wind Watch in effect for Western and Central Aleutian
  Islands

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A 950 mb low moves across the Bering Sea on Monday, bringing
strong winds, high seas, and moderate to heavy precipitation to
the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. Current deterministic model
runs are in good agreement that a strong triple point low will
develop along its front in the northern Gulf on Monday and
Tuesday. While downsloping and other local effects may limit
precipitation in certain areas, expect generally widespread
snowfall for southern Alaska lasting into Wednesday as shortwaves
reinforce the stout low.

This system looks strong enough to dislodge the high pressure and
flip the weather pattern that kept the region cold and dry for
December. By Wednesday and Thursday, multiple lows look to
continue tracking into the Bering and Gulf of Alaska, keeping
chances for precipitation high and increasing temperatures to near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will
persist through the TAF period.

&&