Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Broad upper level troughing spanning across the eastern Interior
down into the Gulf has allowed for broken cloud cover to linger
this afternoon along much of the Gulf coast and Copper River
Basin. A few light snow showers around the Cordova area continue
to taper off through this afternoon as the trough and vertically
stacked low located near Yakutat nudges east towards the Alaskan
Panhandle and Canada. To the west, an amplified ridge centered
over the eastern Bering continues to push east into the Mainland,
keeping conditions dry and clear elsewhere.

Persistent northerly flow and cold air advection will continue to
keep gusty winds through coastal and inland mountain gaps this
evening through tomorrow, with winds likely peaking this evening
into the overnight hours. Strong winds through Thompson Pass are
expected to continue to reduce visibility to one half mile or less
through this afternoon, with visibilities improving this evening
as any remaining snowfall ends and transportable snow scours out.
Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska
Valley from this evening until early Thursday morning for wind
gusts reaching as high as 40 to 50 mph.

Then, dry and cold conditions will settle back in across the
region. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish Thursday into
Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from the trough.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward into the
weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills 40 below
zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and mountain
passes of the Alaska Range as early as tonight. By Friday, ambient
temperatures in the single digits above and below zero are
expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai,
Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast (including Seward,
Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will
likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero. Any bit of wind
would drop the apparent temperatures lower. This cold looks to
stick around through Monday next week.

JH/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

High pressure over Southwest Alaska on Wednesday resulted in
predominantly clear skies and mild winds east of the Kuskokwim
Mountains. Low stratus and fog was more common to the west of the
mountains with clouds blanketing the region from the YK Delta to
the Kuskokwim River down into the Kuskokwim Bay. On satellite, the
main synoptic feature continues to be a large occluded low
located over the western Bering. The southern portion of the
front, currently over the Central Aleutians, will slowly shift
eastward through tomorrow, eventually falling apart as it crosses
Unalaska. To the north, the front is expected to move into the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast tomorrow afternoon. Light to moderate snow
will fall across Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Coast. Anywhere
from 1 to 3 inches of total snow is forecast through tomorrow
night along with increasing winds. Gusts as high as 30 mph
combined with blowing snow will reduce visibility down to one half
mile or less as times. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and
blowing snow is in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Nunivak Island from noon tomorrow to midnight tomorrow night. The
higher snow amounts will occur from Nelson Island to Kipnuk with
snow amounts decreasing further inland. Bethel should be on the
lower end of snow totals with only around an inch forecast. After
Thursday's snow, conditions across Southwest Alaska will improve
with high pressure ridging back over the region on Friday and
Saturday.

The forecast for the Bering and Aleutians remains more active
with several troughs expected to traverse the region into the
weekend. The first trough will clip the Western Aleutians on
Thursday, the Pribilof Islands Thursday night, and then the Alaska
Peninsula Friday morning as it slides back into the North Pacific
by the weekend. Brief light snow and an uptick in winds will
accompany the trough's passage, but should be relatively short-
lived for each area. A second trough lifts over the Western and
Central Aleutians early Friday. Models have the front becoming
more elongated over the Aleutians, with light rain to spread from
Adak to Unalaska. The trough gets picked up by a broad Bering
front on Saturday, which should extend from near Saint Matthew
Island down to the Eastern Aleutians. As with Thursday's
progressive or faster moving trough, this system will slide
eastward at a steady pace, reaching the Kuskokwim Coast by
Saturday afternoon. Models then have yet another, stronger system
moving into the Western Bering and Aleutian Chain late Saturday.
It is this third system that has potential to bring stronger winds
and heavier snow across the Bering and into Southwest Alaska
Sunday into early next week. Stay tuned.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

A 956 mb North Pacific low enters the western Bering Sunday,
brings strong winds, areas of 40 foot waves, and heavy
precipitation for the Aleutian Islands with storm-force winds
currently expected from Attu to Atka, and Gales as far east as
Akutan. Improving model consensus indicates that the strong front
associated with this system will dislodge the high pressure ridge
off to the north and east and lift temperatures up to the normal
range for this time of year. This will set up a strong pressure
gradient and increase chances for a return of gap winds.

A strong triple point low may also develop along the front in the
northern Gulf on Monday into Tuesday, which would bring
precip/snow to much of the Southcentral Coast. A clearer picture
will emerge as consensus improves, but this will likely bring the
next round of significant snow accumulation across Southcentral
through Wednesday.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Northerly winds will persist into Thursday with the strongest
period likely being from this evening through around 3 AM tonight
(12Z Jan 1) when winds could gust to around 25 kt.

&&