Gale Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

352 
FZAK52 PAFC 011122
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020030-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 mb N Pacific low moves to 200 nm ENE of Shemya at 997 mb 
Thu afternoon, and then to 120 nm W of Saint Paul at 1002 mb Fri 
morning. A 980 mb N Pacific low 260 nm WSW of Shemya and its front
pushes into the Western Aleutians Fri morning.

$$

PKZ750-020030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-020030-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-020030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ753-020030-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ754-020030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ755-020030-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ756-020030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ757-020030-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ758-020030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ759-020030-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ770-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ772-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ771-020030-
Unalaska Bay-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 
foot.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ774-020030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ775-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ776-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ777-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ778-020030-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ780-020030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ781-020030-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ782-020030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 46 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ783-020030-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 48 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ784-020030-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ785-020030-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt in the morning becoming SW wind 50 kt. Seas 16
ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 47 ft.
.MON...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ786-020030-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ787-020030-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 24 
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...W wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ766-020030-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ760-020030-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Snow. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ761-020030-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ762-020030-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ763-020030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ764-020030-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Snow with
rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ765-020030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 40 kt.

$$

PKZ767-020030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
222 AM AKST Thu Jan 1 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 AM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

An amplified ridge is located over the Bering Sea this morning
with broad upper level troughing located across the interior
portions of Alaska mainland and the Gulf of Alaska. Northerly flow
prevails across southwest Alaska and the western Gulf. A stacked
low is located near Yakutat and an embedded trough is bringing
light snow to portions of the Copper River Basin south to the
Prince William Sound communities and the Cordova area.

With gusty winds through the coastal mountain gaps, low
visibilities may continue through this morning, until the
transportable snow is mostly scoured out. While the strongest area
of cold advection will be across the Alaska Peninsula, the
western Gulf coastal waters, and Kodiak Island, cold air deepens
across the rest of Southcentral as well, so gap winds look to ramp
up again through today. The Matanuska Valley could have some gusty
winds this afternoon, up to 45 mph in the afternoon and decreasing
later tonight. Gusty winds, already ongoing through Thompson
Pass, are also expected to reduce visibility to one half mile or
less with snow. Visibility is expected to improve as snow comes to
an end across Prince William Sound and the Copper Basin this
evening. In all, snow accumulations up to around 3 inches are
expected near the coast, with decreasing amounts further
inland/north.

Then, dry and cold conditions will settle back in across the
region. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish Thursday into
Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from the trough.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward into the
weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills 40 below
zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and mountain
passes of the Alaska Range as early as tonight. By Friday,
ambient temperatures in the single digits above and below zero are
expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai,
Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast (including Seward,
Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will
likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero. Any bit of wind
would drop the apparent temperatures lower. This cold looks to
stick around through Monday next week.

Quesada/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

An upper level ridge moving over the central Bering Sea is now
slightly losing amplitude as an incoming North Pacific low and
leading front moving into the western Aleutians begin to erode the
ridge from the west. Strong northwesterly flow between the ridge
and a low drifting over the eastern Gulf continues across the
AKPen. Gusty gap winds along and south of the Pacific side of the
AKPen are finally dipping below Storm force as both the Bering
ridge and Gulf low steadily begin to weaken. Farther north, snow
showers are clearing out this morning behind the passage of a weak
front across the Kuskokwim Delta. Areas of low stratus have
spread in behind the front, mainly over and to the west of the
Kuskokwim Mountains. Mostly clear and cold conditions in the -0s
to -10s persist across the Lower Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay,
while warmer temperatures in the 10s to low 20s have moved in
along the coast near and northwest of Togiak.

Looking to the forecast, the front currently moving into the
southwest corner of the the Bering is on track to continue
northeast across the Bering and Aleutian Chain as areas of rain
and south winds just under Gale force continue to follow the
boundary. The front will reach the Pribilofs by this evening,
with a rain/snow mix possible at precipitation onset before warmer
air moving in with the front quickly changes everything over to
all rain. The most noteworthy change for this system is that it
now looks more likely for the front to advance a bit farther
north, likely falling just short of the Southwest Coast before it
begins to stall and weaken. Light snow now looks more likely to
spread into much of the Kuskokwim Delta, especially along the
coast, where around 2 to 3 inches of new snowfall is likely
between Thursday morning and Friday morning. East winds along the
front will be weakening as it arrives on Thursday, but could still
be strong enough to cause areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast as falling snow move
in. Farther south, gusty northwest winds along and south of the
AKPen will quickly diminish Thursday as the synoptic support
fizzles.

Looking back to the west and towards the end of the week, a shift
to a more progressive and active pattern is becoming more
apparent. A potent, compact shortwave and low will move into the
southwestern Bering on Thursday, sending a small pocket of Gale to
Storm force winds across parts of the western Aleutians along with
another quick round of rain. The low will weaken as it heads
rapidly east on Thursday night, perhaps clipping the Pribilofs
with a bit of rain as it passes to the south. Another shortwave
and frontal system will move in quickly behind the compact low,
spreading more gusty winds and light rain into the Aleutian Chain
on Friday. This increasingly active pattern will likely continue
into the weekend.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Very cold, dry weather will persist into the weekend across mainland
Alaska, while the Aleutians remain near- or just above-average in
terms of temperatures thanks to a strong amplified upper-level ridge
that remains in place  across the central Bering Sea. Models are
beginning to converge to a solution which features a deep low
crossing over the Aleutians and into the Bering late Saturday into
Sunday, helping shift that large ridge eastward a bit. Strong winds,
large waves, and heavy precipitation are all a possibility with this
low as it shifts north, with the strongest winds currently expected
to be from approximately Atka west.

For Southcentral, the main hazard for the weekend will be the
continuation of strong gap winds through Sunday before the pressure
gradient relaxes. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs near 0
for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, with lows closer to 10 below.
The Copper River Basin will remain frigid, with temperatures largely
hovering between 20 and 40 below.

Models diverge, and thus confidence lowers, as we head into the
beginning of next week. There's still reasonable consensus that a
strong front associated with this low will rotate east into mainland
Alaska, helping break down the ridge that would then be across the
Gulf of Alaska north. A strong triple point low may also develop
across the northern Gulf, which would bring heavy precip/snow to
much of the Southcentral Coast. Details are still murky with this
one, but this would ultimately be the next chance of significant
snow accumulation for much of the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Northerly winds on the order of 5 to 10 kts this morning will
slowly increase to 10 to 15 kts by 00z, with gusts as high as 20
to 25 kts later this evening.

-AM

&&