Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 AM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

An amplified ridge is located over the Bering Sea this morning
with broad upper level troughing located across the interior
portions of Alaska mainland and the Gulf of Alaska. Northerly flow
prevails across southwest Alaska and the western Gulf. A stacked
low is located near Yakutat and an embedded trough is bringing
light snow to portions of the Copper River Basin south to the
Prince William Sound communities and the Cordova area.

With gusty winds through the coastal mountain gaps, low
visibilities may continue through this morning, until the
transportable snow is mostly scoured out. While the strongest area
of cold advection will be across the Alaska Peninsula, the
western Gulf coastal waters, and Kodiak Island, cold air deepens
across the rest of Southcentral as well, so gap winds look to ramp
up again through today. The Matanuska Valley could have some gusty
winds this afternoon, up to 45 mph in the afternoon and decreasing
later tonight. Gusty winds, already ongoing through Thompson
Pass, are also expected to reduce visibility to one half mile or
less with snow. Visibility is expected to improve as snow comes to
an end across Prince William Sound and the Copper Basin this
evening. In all, snow accumulations up to around 3 inches are
expected near the coast, with decreasing amounts further
inland/north.

Then, dry and cold conditions will settle back in across the
region. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish Thursday into
Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from the trough.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward into the
weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills 40 below
zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and mountain
passes of the Alaska Range as early as tonight. By Friday,
ambient temperatures in the single digits above and below zero are
expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai,
Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast (including Seward,
Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will
likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero. Any bit of wind
would drop the apparent temperatures lower. This cold looks to
stick around through Monday next week.

Quesada/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

An upper level ridge moving over the central Bering Sea is now
slightly losing amplitude as an incoming North Pacific low and
leading front moving into the western Aleutians begin to erode the
ridge from the west. Strong northwesterly flow between the ridge
and a low drifting over the eastern Gulf continues across the
AKPen. Gusty gap winds along and south of the Pacific side of the
AKPen are finally dipping below Storm force as both the Bering
ridge and Gulf low steadily begin to weaken. Farther north, snow
showers are clearing out this morning behind the passage of a weak
front across the Kuskokwim Delta. Areas of low stratus have
spread in behind the front, mainly over and to the west of the
Kuskokwim Mountains. Mostly clear and cold conditions in the -0s
to -10s persist across the Lower Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay,
while warmer temperatures in the 10s to low 20s have moved in
along the coast near and northwest of Togiak.

Looking to the forecast, the front currently moving into the
southwest corner of the the Bering is on track to continue
northeast across the Bering and Aleutian Chain as areas of rain
and south winds just under Gale force continue to follow the
boundary. The front will reach the Pribilofs by this evening,
with a rain/snow mix possible at precipitation onset before warmer
air moving in with the front quickly changes everything over to
all rain. The most noteworthy change for this system is that it
now looks more likely for the front to advance a bit farther
north, likely falling just short of the Southwest Coast before it
begins to stall and weaken. Light snow now looks more likely to
spread into much of the Kuskokwim Delta, especially along the
coast, where around 2 to 3 inches of new snowfall is likely
between Thursday morning and Friday morning. East winds along the
front will be weakening as it arrives on Thursday, but could still
be strong enough to cause areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast as falling snow move
in. Farther south, gusty northwest winds along and south of the
AKPen will quickly diminish Thursday as the synoptic support
fizzles.

Looking back to the west and towards the end of the week, a shift
to a more progressive and active pattern is becoming more
apparent. A potent, compact shortwave and low will move into the
southwestern Bering on Thursday, sending a small pocket of Gale to
Storm force winds across parts of the western Aleutians along with
another quick round of rain. The low will weaken as it heads
rapidly east on Thursday night, perhaps clipping the Pribilofs
with a bit of rain as it passes to the south. Another shortwave
and frontal system will move in quickly behind the compact low,
spreading more gusty winds and light rain into the Aleutian Chain
on Friday. This increasingly active pattern will likely continue
into the weekend.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Very cold, dry weather will persist into the weekend across mainland
Alaska, while the Aleutians remain near- or just above-average in
terms of temperatures thanks to a strong amplified upper-level ridge
that remains in place  across the central Bering Sea. Models are
beginning to converge to a solution which features a deep low
crossing over the Aleutians and into the Bering late Saturday into
Sunday, helping shift that large ridge eastward a bit. Strong winds,
large waves, and heavy precipitation are all a possibility with this
low as it shifts north, with the strongest winds currently expected
to be from approximately Atka west.

For Southcentral, the main hazard for the weekend will be the
continuation of strong gap winds through Sunday before the pressure
gradient relaxes. Temperatures will be quite cold, with highs near 0
for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula, with lows closer to 10 below.
The Copper River Basin will remain frigid, with temperatures largely
hovering between 20 and 40 below.

Models diverge, and thus confidence lowers, as we head into the
beginning of next week. There's still reasonable consensus that a
strong front associated with this low will rotate east into mainland
Alaska, helping break down the ridge that would then be across the
Gulf of Alaska north. A strong triple point low may also develop
across the northern Gulf, which would bring heavy precip/snow to
much of the Southcentral Coast. Details are still murky with this
one, but this would ultimately be the next chance of significant
snow accumulation for much of the area. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Northerly winds on the order of 5 to 10 kts this morning will
slowly increase to 10 to 15 kts by 00z, with gusts as high as 20
to 25 kts later this evening.

-AM

&&