Gale Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Snow is not over. A second wave of low pressure is moving into
  the region this afternoon with a longer duration of snow to
  persist into Tuesday night, possibly early Wednesday. Most
  advisories remain in effect or have been upgraded across
  Southcentral. Anchorage and MatSu zones were upgraded to a winter
  storm warning for additional snow of 5 to 10 inches in addition
  to what has already fallen. Winter weather advisory for
  Kachemak Bay zones have also been upgraded to warnings for
  snow/blowing snow.

- Gusty westerly winds develop from southern Cook Inlet into the
  Shelikof Strait on Tuesday. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph will promote
  12 to 15 foot seas in Kachemak's Outer Bay waters with 5 to 9
  foot seas breaking along the coast and the Homer Spit. A threat
  for heavy to extreme freezing spray will exist.

- Storm force winds with gusts to 65+ knots will spill out of the
  Kamishak Gap on Tuesday with a threat for heavy to extreme
  freezing spray from the southern Cook Inlet waters down to the
  Shelikof Strait and out into the Barren Islands. Ice may rapidly
  accumulate on vessels at a rate of 2 to 4 cm/hour.

- Looking ahead, cold temperatures return to Southcentral as snow
  departs the region on Wednesday night. Many locations will drop
  back down to below zero degrees through Thursday night with
  increasing gap winds through the usual locales.

Discussion:

Very active weather pattern continues across Southcentral as
multiple waves traverse the region, bringing moderate to heavy
snow and areas of gusty winds. The short term forecast is well
accounted for with advisory and warning products valid through
their expiration times. To summarize, an initial round of snow
during the overnight hours is quickly becoming overtaken by a
second stronger wave of low pressure this afternoon. This second
wave will promote a longer duration, heavier snow, which is
expected to persist through Tuesday, and possibly into early
Wednesday for some areas. Thus, in addition to early Monday snow
amounts, additional snow accumulations through Tuesday night will
range from anywhere from 6 to 12 inches, with the potential for
localized higher amounts, especially at the higher elevations.
This could see storm total amounts of 10 to 20 inches by Thursday
night/Wednesday morning.

The challenge with the forecast has been with if and for how long
a break in snow would occur during the morning hours across
portions of Southcentral before snow redevelops over the latter
half of the day. Some locations may not see any breaks at all with
continuous snow lingering into tomorrow. Very cold temperatures
aloft are supporting high snow ratios of 20:1 inches or more,
which means increased snow amounts that some of the models are
having trouble accounting for.

Of particular interest related to the forecast, models are
showing a very cold airmass spilling over all of Southwest Alaska
tonight, then over the Alaska Range and into Southcentral through
the day on Tuesday, as a broad upper trough digs into the interior
of Alaska. This advection of colder temperatures and upper level
support will promote very gusty gap winds on Tuesday. Notably,
winds coming out of the Kamishak Gap into the Barren Islands will
likely gust to hurricane force late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
night. The combination of cold temperatures and high winds will
create a favorable environment for extreme freezing spray from the
southern Cook Inlet down into the Shelikof Strait. Ice may
rapidly accumulate on marine vessels at a rate of 4 cm per hour or
greater.

A second area of concern for Southcentral is Kachemak Bay and the
Homer Spit on Tuesday. Strengthening westerly winds with gusts
from 30 to 50 mph will promote building significant wave heights
in the outer bay of 12 to 15 feet, with breaking waves of 5 to 9
feet along the coast and Homer Spit. The timing of these higher
waves will coincide with peak tidal cycles, further exacerbating
coastal waves.

Snow will eventually taper off from west to east late
Tuesday/early Wednesday for Southcentral as low pressure departs
the region to the east. Increasing northerly flow behind the wave
will usher in renewed cold temperatures across the region, with
many locations to drop below zero yet again from Wednesday night
into Thursday night. Temperatures should begin to rebound on
Friday with the approach of yet another low pressure system. This
next system will bring the next chance of significant snow to
Southcentral over the weekend.

BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

- Winter weather conditions, including blizzard conditions, will
  slowly improve through the evening hours.

- Arctic air returns Tuesday and persists into late week bringing
  much colder air to the Mainland and snow showers for the
  Aleutians.

Satellite imagery shows today's storm making landfall this
afternoon and surface observations recorded rain, snow and a
rain/snow mix for the region. Throughout the day, areas along the
AK Pen switched from rain to snow as temperatures dropped. In the
Aleutians, wind gusts ranged from 60 mph to 100 mph; highest in
the Central Aleutians. On the Mainland coast and Kuskokwim Delta,
blizzard conditions prevailed with visibility at 1/4 mile or less
the majority of the morning and afternoon. The conditions across
the region will slowly improve this evening. However, the AK Pen
coastal advisories remain through early Tuesday morning

Arctic air returns Tuesday to the region and persists into mid-
week with much colder temperatures, scattered, convective snow
showers and freezing spray expected. Temperatures at 850mb
Tuesday through late this week for the Mainland range from -24C to
-28C. This results in surface low temperatures falling close to
-30F. Elsewhere, northerly winds bring continued snow showers to
 the Aleutians through mid-week.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An Arctic air mass will be in place across much of the southern
Mainland at the start of the period on Thursday, with a deep upper
level low initially centered over Southcentral. A narrow ridge
will likely be in place across parts of the Bering Sea, extending
from the North Pacific into parts of Northeast Russia and
Kamchatka. A frontal system associated with a low moving south of
the Aleutians will bring strong easterly winds and rain/snow south
of the Bering ridge along much of the Aleutian Chain on Thursday.
Strong northeast surface winds will likely be ongoing along the
Southwest Coast and out across much of the Bering Sea as a strong
north-south pressure gradient combines with strong westerly cold
advection of Arctic air from Southwest. This will likely support
areas of heavy freezing spray across the eastern Bering Sea,
especially within close proximity to the sea ice edge until winds
begin to weaken and turn more northerly on Friday.

A very active pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as
the upper level pattern amplifies with time. The upper low/trough
over Southcentral will retrograde west through the weekend,
becoming part of a deepening longwave trough setting up across the
Bering and Aleutians. At the same time, a longwave ridge will
develop downstream of the main upper trough, building steadily
into the eastern Gulf and Southeast through Sunday. This will put
Southcentral squarely within the prevailing storm track between
the very cold Arctic air building over northern/western Alaska and
the much warmer Pacific air and high pressure building into the
Gulf and Southeast. This could extend a period of major volatility
in temperatures and precipitation already getting started this
week for part of Southcentral into the weekend. Multiple large
swings between periods of cold temperatures and drier conditions
and warmer temperatures with light to moderate snow will be
possible as a series of lows move north into the region within a
corridor of southerly flow setting up between the ridge to the
southeast and trough to the northwest.

Meanwhile, most of Southwest will stay colder and drier through
the weekend as the Arctic air mass remains entrenched in place.
Much of the Aleutian Chain could see periods of ocean-effect snow
showers through Sunday as cold air streaming south modifies and
picks up moisture from the warmer ocean surface.

-AS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail through early evening
as bands of snow move north along Cook Inlet. Winds will generally
be light out of the north; however, occasional gusts to 20 kt are
still possible tonight through early Tuesday morning.

Conditions deteriorate again this evening when another round of
snow returns. Expect flight conditions to lower into IFR and LIFR
possible with snowfall. Higher snowfall accumulation is likely
with this next round. Winds will become variable Tuesday morning
then become southerly for time mid-morning through mid-afternoon
before shifting back to the north. Snow will linger over the
terminal through at least Tuesday evening.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1113 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Oceanview)   61.11N 149.86W
01/05/2026  M5.3 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Storm total accumulation since snow started
            Sunday evening.

0733 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Rabbit Creek 61.07N 149.77W
01/05/2026  M4.9 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            4.9 inches of snow measured on a snow table.

0900 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Abbott Loop) 61.14N 149.82W
01/05/2026  M4.1 Inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            Storm total as of 9:00 PM Jan 5, 2026 is 4.1
            inches.

1030 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Russian Jack 61.21N 149.80W
01/05/2026  M6.8 Inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            2.5 inches of new snow measured since 12:30
            PM for a storm total of 6.8 inches.

&&