Gale Warning 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
655 AM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Two rounds of snowfall is expected across Southcentral. The
  first round is winding down this morning. However, there could
  be periods of light snow ahead of the next major round moving
  through later today and tomorrow. Significant snowfall is
  expected with the next round from the Kenai Peninsula, Western
  Prince William Sound, Anchorage, and the MatSu. Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect for snow and blowing snow.

- A cold air mass follows the snow. Strong, gusty winds will be
  possible later Tuesday through midweek for Kachemak Bay area and
  coastal gaps. Heavy to extreme freezing spray is possible near
  Kamishak Bay and southern Cook Inlet.

The first round of snow has moved through Southcentral this
morning. The low is quickly moving across the northern Gulf. While
snow is expected to decrease this morning and afternoon for most
locations, any weak embedded waves could lead to periods of light
snow before the next major round returns.

A brief period of gusty northerly winds is expected through the
rest of this morning, including the morning commute. Gusts as high
as 30 mph will result in areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibility from the MatSu Valley down into Anchorage, and also
along the Western Kenai Coast. Any cars on the road could also
easy loft snow and also reduce visibility. Plan extra time while
traveling.

The second round of snow begins this afternoon as a compact
trough moves into the region behind the front. Moderate to heavy
snow develops and then persists into Tuesday, with lighter snow
lingering into Wednesday morning. This second round of snow will
bring 6 to 14 inches of snow from the Susitna Valley down into the
Turnagain Arm. Lighter accumulations of 2 to 5 inches will fall
across the Kenai Peninsula. Valdez and Thompson Pass will see
anywhere from 4 to 10 inches with the higher amounts across
Thompson Pass. Accumulations across the Copper River Basin will be
more varied with 2 to 5 inches from the Richardson Highway up to
Paxson. Snow tapers off from west to east late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, with the Eastern Turnagain Arm and Western
Prince William Sound region perhaps experiencing another couple of
inches before all is said and done.

Following the next round of snow, significant cold air advection
will quickly filter into the area later Tuesday. Strong, gusty
winds of at least gale force (potentially as high as 50 kts
through Whittier) are expected to increase through the gap areas,
especially through Seward/Resurrection Bay, Whittier/Passage
Canal. Kachemak Bay, including Homer and Seldovia, will also see
increasingly gusty winds from the west, from Kamishak Bay. This
will increase the potential for heavy to extreme freezing spray
near the Barren Islands, Kamishak Bay, and southern Cook Inlet,
where particularly higher winds may blow through the bays and
passes. Winds may start to improve midweek with the low in the
Gulf weakening, but at this time, it appears gradual.

The forecast over the next few days will be evolve dynamically as
potentially impactful weather is expected through midweek. Check
the forecast frequently for updates and be ready to plan
accordingly.

BL/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

The forecast remains on track. With the the hurricane-force low
gradually progressing eastward, the High Wind Warning has been
cancelled for the Western and Central Aleutians. High Wind
Warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Aleutians and Southern
Alaska Peninsula, where multiple sites have recorded gusts of 75
mph or greater. A High Surf Advisory also remains in effect for
Southern Alaska Peninsula as these strong, onshore winds will
bring higher waves crashing into the shoreline. The High Wind
Watch for Saint George Island remains out, but it looks
increasingly likely that winds will remain below 75 mph.

For Southwest Alaska, snow amounts have trended up just a bit, but
the heaviest snow has already ended across the region. The
biggest threat now will be additional accumulations from longer
duration light snow. Blizzard conditions were reported throughout
Kuskokwim Delta last night, as well as for the Western Capes.
While the strongest winds have ended, another period of blowing
snow and potential blizzard conditions is possible later today as
winds pick up again. A period of wintry mix remains possible for
the Naknek and King Salmon areas as warmer air could bring up to a
light glaze of ice. Otherwise, Coastal Flood Advisories remain out
along the Bristol Bay coast from Dillingham to Pilot Point through
today.

See previous discussion (copied below) for additional details:

Key Messages:

- A potent frontal system brings high winds to the Bering Sea,
  Aleutian Islands, and Southern Alaska Peninsula and heavy snow,
  blowing snow, and strong winds to all of Southwest Alaska
  through Monday. Multiple watches, warnings, and advisories are
  in effect.

- High surf and coastal flooding along the Bering side of the
  Alaska Peninsula and the Bristol Bay coast with localized areas
  of waves 40 feet or greater.

- Colder air surges southwards post-storm, bringing a return to
  frigid temperatures and expanding coverage of heavy to extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

Wind gusts ranging from 50 to 70 mph have been recorded in the
Aleutians, Pribilof Islands and Southwest coastline this
afternoon as a hurricane-force low continues to move through the
Bering Sea. These gusts will continue through tomorrow ranging
from 60 to 80 mph in the southwest coast to as high as 100 mph in
the Aleutians from Shemya to Cold Bay. Snow and blowing snow
continue along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and interior Kuskokwim
Delta down into Bristol Bay. Blizzard conditions have been
reported in Cape Newenham and Toksook Bay this afternoon.
Blizzard conditions will continue into tomorrow afternoon. These
winds will also lead to reduced visibilities and difficult travel
for most interior locations. A shift of precipitation from the
storm to the east/southeast continues in this afternoon's
forecast package resulting in less snow is expected in the area.
Snow amounts now range from 6 to 12 inches. Lastly, any wintry mix
in the AK Pen will be short- lived as winds change to the
southwest changing the snow into a mix of snow and rain this
evening and then rain overnight.

Cold air advection and trailing upper- level waves will allow
strong westerly / northwesterly winds to continue across the
Bering and Aleutian Chain into Tuesday. The strong west-
northwesterly winds across the Southeastern Bering and Bristol Bay
may result in a period of high surf and elevated water levels
across the Northern AKPen tomorrow.

Various waves rotating around the base of the upper-level low will
allow snow showers to continue across Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday, with the most persistent bands in favored upslope areas
due to the westerly wind flow. Behind the upper-level low, another
shot of arctic air will dive south. Expect temperatures to once
again drop well below zero with gusty northwesterly winds by
midweek.

-DJ/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Saturday)...

Broad troughing with a closed low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska will be in place at the start of the long term forecast
period. Weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea will keep
Southwest Alaska dry while snow showers linger across
Southcentral. Strong northwesterly winds through gaps of the
Alaska Peninsula are likely on Wednesday, especially through the
Barren Islands. The Gulf low looks to pull east toward the Alaska
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon which will diminish Southcentral
precipitation and winds through Thursday.

Further west, another strong low pressure system looks to bring
high winds and localized heavy precipitation to the western and
central Aleutians Wednesday and Thursday. While model agreement
regarding the eastward track of this system is very poor, it is
looking likely that the southern coast of Alaska sees a
significant round of precipitation Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty winds around 20 kts are
likely through the rest of this morning. Visibilities may drop to
less than 1 SM in heavier snow. Some drifting and blowing snow is
also possible. Snow is expected to taper off mid to late morning
and ceilings could rise to VFR. Conditions deteriorate again later
this afternoon when another round of snow returns. Expect flight
conditions to similarly lower into MVFR to IFR with snowfall.
Higher snowfall accumulation is likely with this next round.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
207 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Snow             Russian Jack            61.20N 149.79W
01/05/2026  M4.3 Inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            Snow since last night. Still snowing.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
209 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     Snow             Cohoe                   60.36N 151.27W
01/05/2026  M10.8 Inch       Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

            The majority, 10.5 inches of snow, fell
            before 9 am. Still snowing.

0745 AM     Snow             Valdez                  61.11N 146.22W
01/05/2026  M1.2 Inch        Chugach            AK   CO-OP Observer

            Snow ended around time of or shortly after
            report.

0130 PM     Snow             Oceanview               61.11N 149.86W
01/05/2026  M3.8 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Snow since Sunday evening. Still snowing.

&&

Quesada

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
247 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Snow             Soldotna                60.48N 151.00W
01/05/2026  M4.7 Inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Cocorahs

            Liquid equivalent 0.28 inches. Snow depth 15
            inches. Still snowing.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     Snow             Chugiak                 61.44N 149.36W
01/05/2026  M3.5 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            Still snowing.

0305 PM     Snow             Rabbit Creek            61.07N 149.77W
01/05/2026  M4.3 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            Drifting snow made measurement difficult in
            the morning. Measured in several less
            wind-affected spots. Still snowing.

&&

Quesada

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
315 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Middleton Island        59.44N 146.33W
01/05/2026  M79 MPH          Chugach            AK   Mesonet

            69 knot (79 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station MDXA2 79 SSW Cordova.

0606 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Dutch Harbor Airport    53.90N 166.53W
01/04/2026  M78 MPH          Aleutians West     AK   AWOS

            68 knot (78 mph) peak wind gust measured at
            AWOS station PADU Audubon Airport.

0606 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Adak                    51.86N 176.63W
01/04/2026  M80 MPH          Aleutians West     AK   Mesonet

            70 knots (80 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station ADKA2 Adak Island, AK.

0642 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Dutch Harbor Pilot Stat 53.89N 166.54W
01/04/2026  M85 MPH          Aleutians West     AK   Mesonet

            71 knot (82 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station DPXA2 Dutch Harbor Pilot Station.

0536 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Unalaska                53.88N 166.54W
01/05/2026  M89 MPH          Aleutians West     AK   Mesonet

            77 knot (89 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station UNLA2 Unalaska NOS.

0132 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Nikolski (High Hill)    52.97N 168.85W
01/05/2026  M105 MPH         Aleutians West     AK   Mesonet

            91 knot (105 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station NKLA2 1 WNW Nikolski.
            This station is at 651 ft elevation.

0212 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Akutan                  54.13N 165.77W
01/05/2026  M107 MPH         Aleutians East     AK   Mesonet

            93 knot (107 mph) wind gust measured at
            mesonet station AKXA2 in Akutan.

0253 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Cold Bay                55.20N 162.72W
01/05/2026  M77 MPH          Aleutians East     AK   ASOS

            67 knot (77 mph) wind gust measured at ASOS
            station PACD Cold Bay.

&&

Quesada

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 5 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Snow             WFO Anchorage           61.16N 149.98W
01/05/2026  M6.7 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Official NWS Obs

            2.3 inches of new snow since 9 am. Liquid
            equivalent 0.47 inches for this event so
            far. Snow depth 15 inches.

0324 PM     Snow             Potter Valley           61.06N 149.76W
01/05/2026  M6.2 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter measured 6.2 inches of snow.
            0.29 inches liquid equivalent. Still
            snowing.

&&

Quesada