Gale Warning 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Sun Feb 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the upper level trough
digging south across the Interior and a surface trough driving
towards Prince William Sound is allowing for light snowfall to
continue across the Copper Valley with rain and snow for the
eastern Prince William Sound coast. Further east across Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley, low-level moisture and temperatures in
the mid 20s has resulted in freezing drizzle being observed this
afternoon following this morning's snow showers. Any remaining
freezing drizzle this afternoon is expected to taper off this
evening from south to north as snow chances begin to increase
tonight for Anchorage and the MatSu.

A shortwave tracking across Southwest Alaska will continue to
phase with the Arctic trough this evening before moving east over
Southcentral for Monday. As it does, a new surface low will spin
up south of Seward and move into Prince William Sound, absorbing
the other surface low near Cordova. The flow aloft will shift and
become more southerly as the shortwave moves over the Susitna
Valley, likely allowing for an area of light snow to develop from
Anchorage north to Talkeetna by early Monday morning. This wave
will move quickly east, and this will allow the snow to taper off
by late morning. The exception again may be northeast of Palmer,
given the southwesterly flow into the Matanuska Valley. Any snow
accumulations will be light, on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with
amounts near 3 inches closer to Sutton.

This wave will strengthen as it moves over the Copper River
Basin, drawing the surface low and its moisture northward over the
region. Snowfall rates Monday morning may approach one to two
inches per hour across the eastern half of the Basin as the
shortwave continues to drive through the region. While snow will
persist across the basin through Monday, the southwesterly flow
aloft will favor the upslope areas along the Tok Cutoff and the
Edgerton Highway. As such, up to an additional 8 to 12 inches is
possible for places like McCarthy and Chistochina to Mentasta
Pass. Northeasterly winds at the surface will also increase
through Mentasta Pass tonight into Monday, potentially leading to
areas of blowing snow and light drifting of snow along the Tok
Cutoff.

This system will move out of the region late Monday with snow
tapering off by Monday night. A transient ridge moves over
Southcentral for early Tuesday before a strong front moves from
the western Gulf to the northern Gulf with gales across western
half of the Gulf and snow changing to rain for Kodiak Island. The
front will quickly reach the northern Gulf by Tuesday evening with
widespread snow for many interior locations and snow changing to
rain along the coast.

-JH/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka low moving
through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

2) Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

3) Prolonged winter weather conditions expected for the Pribilof
Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka
low moving through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

A 950 mb Kamchatka low moves northward through the Western
Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday. It will
deepen as it crosses into the Bering Sea to a 940 mb low as the
trough digs deeper and the low becomes vertically stacked. Its
front reaches the Central and Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon
bringing south/southeasterly winds through the evening hours.
These winds stretch into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
Monday into Tuesday. As the low deepens, hurricane force winds
continue in the Central Aleutians with mainly storm force to
hurricane force winds in the Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday.
Precipitation during this time in the Aleutians will be high
elevation snowfall and a mix of rain/snow at lower elevations. The
front's passing will create an east to west wind flow causing the
best chance for strongest wind gusts between Monday evening and
Tuesday evening. Forecaster experience continues to lean toward a
snowier period of precipitation type during this time as the
occluding low brings colder air aloft to the surface and
increased precipitation rates that aid in cooler surface
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

Conditions in Southwest Alaska won't fare any better with this
early week storm. The aforementioned front reaches the Southwest
Alaska coastline Tuesday morning bringing rain, snow and strong
winds to the region through Tuesday evening. We're monitoring the
potential for blizzard conditions for the Southwest coast, as
well as heavy snow for parts of Southwest Alaska, including
Bethel. Onshore wind flow could result in Bristol Bay and Bering
Sea coastal impacts. Various winter weather products have been
issued for the next 72 hours for this storm. Additionally, southerly
winds bring warmer temperatures to the Alaska Peninsula allowing
most of the precipitation to remain as rain though snow mixing in
with this rain at times is possible the next 72 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Prolonged winter weather conditions expected on the Pribilof
Islands.

As the low moves into the Bering Sea and its associated front
works its was northward, southerly to southeasterly winds are
expected. Though not a favorable direction for blizzard conditions
on the Islands, the heavy precipitation and wind gusts in the
40 mph to 60 mph range Monday and Tuesday could cause a prolonged
period of visibility conditions as low as 1/2 mile. The greatest
chance for these low visibility conditions range from Monday
evening into late Tuesday evening when the heaviest precipitation
is expected. Of note, temperatures will remain around 32 degrees
during his time frame and this is a change from previous model
guidance of a cooler solution during the heaviest precipitation.
Forecaster experience of pattern recognition lean towards a
cooler solution resulting in temperatures at or slightly below 32
degrees during this heavy precipitation time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Starting off the long term forecast on Wednesday lies a strong
low in the Eastern Bering. This low is expected to bring gale to
storm force winds to the Aleutians Islands and the Pribilof
Islands. Precipitation from the low is expected to be mostly
snowfall due to a cooler air mass wrapping around the low. Blowing
snow from the gusty winds and snowfall could reduce visibility.
Southcentral will be less active, but lingering snowfall from a
previous low is possible. Thursday has the low moving onshore
bringing snowfall to the mainland and gusty winds to the coast.
With this, winds and precipitation in the Bering will diminish.
However, a strong front from a Kamchatka low pushes into the
Western Aleutians, making its way eastward and pushing onshore by
Friday. This front will bring another round of gusty winds to the
Aleutians, but the airmass will be warmer due to southerly flow,
so rain or a rain/snow are the more likely precipitation types.
However, the Southwest Mainland will remain cold enough for snow
once the front pushes onshore on Friday. Meanwhile, shortwaves
moving through Southcentral could allow for some snowfall, but
this is uncertain at this point in time.

Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller
lows to move through the Bering. These would up winds and
precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for
Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in
the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and
potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear
overtime as guidance better resolves key features.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR and light northerly winds expected. Light snow is
possible after 06Z, with the most likely timeframe after 10Z. Snow
tapers off by Monday afternoon and ceilings are expected to
improve. There is a small potential for light freezing drizzle
before snow.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKST Sun Feb 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     Snow             5 E Valdez              61.11N 146.22W
02/08/2026  M0.3 Inch        Chugach            AK   Public

            Still snowing at time of report. 0.05 inch
            of SWE.

&&

PP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Sun Feb 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Potter Valle 61.06N 149.76W
02/08/2026  M0.6 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Trained Spotter

            On and off snow showers. SWE was 0.13
            inches.

&&

PP