Blizzard Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

372 
WWAK42 PAFC 100139
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

AKZ755-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.260210T1000Z-260211T1200Z/
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Kipnuk, Toksook Bay, Mekoryuk, and
Quinhagak
439 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Visibilities reduced to one 
  quarter mile or less due to blowing snow. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along the 
  Kuskokwim Delta coast from Kipnuk north to Toksook Bay from late 
  this evening through early Tuesday afternoon. This time frame will 
  also be when the worst visibility conditions are expected to 
  occur. After this time, lower snow rates and warmer temperatures 
  will slowly lead to improved visibility despite gusty winds 
  continuing to blow snow around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider delaying travel. If travel is necessary, do so with extreme 
caution. Take a winter storm kit along with you, including such 
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets 
and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything 
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ756-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.260210T1200Z-260211T1200Z/
Interior Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Kwethluk, Kasigluk, Bethel, and Akiachak
439 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM 
AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Interior Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates, of up to 1 inch of 
  snow per hour, will continue through Tuesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you plan on traveling, use caution. Consider delaying travel. If 
you must travel, take a winter storm kit along with you, including 
such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, 
blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and 
anything else that would help you survive in case you become 
stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ757-764-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.260210T1200Z-260211T1200Z/
Western Capes-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Goodnews Bay, Manokotak, Dillingham,
Togiak, and Platinum
439 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM 
AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 
  12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Western Capes.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates (over 1 inch of snow 
  per hour) may end as early as Tuesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous. Consider delaying 
travel. If you must travel, use caution. Take a winter storm kit 
along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, 
flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a 
first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case 
you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ795-101500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0020.260210T0300Z-260211T0600Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the cities of Saint George and Saint Paul
439 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST 
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 6 inches. Visibilities as low as one-half mile or 
  less at times. Winds gusting as high as 65 to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel 
  could be very difficult. Very strong winds may move loose debris, 
  damage property, and cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southeasterly to southerly winds, in 
  combination with snow, could significantly reduce visibilities in 
  blowing snow. While the heaviest snow will end by early Tuesday 
  morning, blowing snow will likely remain a threat through Tuesday 
  evening due to continued snow showers and strong winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

DJ

555 
WWAK42 PAFC 101401
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

AKZ755-110215-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Toksook Bay, Kipnuk, Quinhagak, and
Mekoryuk
501 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Visibilities reduced to one 
  quarter mile or less due to blowing snow. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very 
  difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along the 
  Kuskokwim Delta coast from Kipnuk north to Toksook Bay through 
  early this afternoon. This will also be when the worst visibility 
  conditions are expected to occur. After this time, lower snow 
  rates and warmer temperatures will slowly lead to improved 
  visibility despite gusty winds continuing to blow snow around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a 
winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your 
vehicle.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use 
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter 
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, 
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. 
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help 
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ756-110215-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Interior Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Akiachak, Bethel, Kasigluk, and Kwethluk
501 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Interior Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates, of up to 1 inch of 
  snow per hour, will continue through this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel, keep 
an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an 
emergency.

Persons are urged to stay indoors until conditions improve. If you 
must go outside, dress in layers. Several layers of clothes will 
keep you warmer than a single heavy coat. Cover exposed skin to 
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia. Gloves, a scarf, and a 
hat will keep you from losing your body heat.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden 
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the 
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your 
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially 
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is 
winterized and in good working order.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely 
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter 
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, 
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. 
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help 
you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ757-764-110215-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Western Capes-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Goodnews Bay, Togiak, Manokotak,
Dillingham, and Platinum
501 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 
  12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Western Capes.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates (over 1 inch of snow 
  per hour) may end as early as this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel, keep 
an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an 
emergency.

&&

$$

AKZ795-110215-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-260211T0600Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the cities of Saint Paul and Saint George
501 AM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 4 and 6 inches. Visibilities as low as one-half mile or 
  less at times. Winds gusting as high as 65 to 75 mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel 
  could be very difficult. Very strong winds may move loose debris, 
  damage property, and cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southeasterly to southerly winds, in 
  combination with snow, could significantly reduce visibilities in 
  blowing snow. While the heaviest snow will end by early this 
  morning, blowing snow will likely remain a threat through this 
  evening due to continued snow showers and strong winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

Mitchell

835 
WWAK42 PAFC 102336
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

AKZ755-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Toksook Bay, Kipnuk, Quinhagak, and
Mekoryuk
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions persist. Visibilities reduced to one 
  quarter mile or less due to blowing snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 
  mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along the 
  Kuskokwim Delta coast from Kipnuk north to Toksook Bay through 
  early this afternoon. This will also be when the worst visibility 
  conditions are expected to occur. After this time, lower snow 
  rates and warmer temperatures will slowly lead to improved 
  visibility despite gusty winds continuing to blow snow around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider delaying travel. If travel is necessary, do so with extreme 
caution. Take a winter storm kit along with you, including such 
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets 
and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything 
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ756-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Interior Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Kwethluk, Akiachak, and Kasigluk
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow continues. Additional snow accumulations between 
  2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Interior Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates, of up to 1 inch of 
  snow per hour, will continue through this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you plan on traveling, use caution. Consider delaying travel. If 
you must travel, take a winter storm kit along with you, including 
such items as flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also 
take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you 
survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ757-764-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Western Capes-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Manokotak, Goodnews Bay, Platinum,
Dillingham, and Togiak
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow continues. Additional snow accumulations between 
  2 and 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Western Capes.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates (over 1 inch of snow 
  per hour) may end as early as this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous. Consider delaying 
travel. If you must travel, use caution. Take a winter storm kit 
along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, 
flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a 
first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case 
you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ795-110600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-260211T0600Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the cities of Saint Paul and Saint George
236 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow continues. Additional snow 
  accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. Visibilities as low as 
  one-half mile or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 65 to 75 
  mph.

* WHERE...Pribilof Islands.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Very strong winds may 
  move loose debris, damage property, and cause power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong southeasterly to southerly winds, in 
  combination with snow, could significantly reduce visibilities in 
  blowing snow. Blowing snow will continue through this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

SS

534 
WWAK42 PAFC 110604
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
904 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

AKZ795-110715-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-260211T0600Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the cities of Saint George and Saint Paul
904 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Snow showers will continue, though minimal accumulation is expected 
due to above freezing temperatures.

$$

AKZ755-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Kipnuk, Mekoryuk, Toksook Bay, and
Quinhagak
904 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations up to 
  one inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel 
  treacherous and potentially life-threatening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected along the 
  Kuskokwim Delta coast from Kipnuk north to Toksook Bay through 
  early this afternoon. This will also be when the worst visibility 
  conditions are expected to occur. After this time, lower snow 
  rates and warmer temperatures will slowly lead to improved 
  visibility despite gusty winds continuing to blow snow around.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider delaying travel. If travel is necessary, do so with extreme 
caution. Take a winter storm kit along with you, including such 
items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets 
and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything 
else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ756-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Interior Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Kwethluk, Kasigluk, Akiachak, and Bethel
904 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Interior Kuskokwim Delta.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates, of up to 1 inch of 
  snow per hour, will continue through this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you plan on traveling, use caution. Consider delaying travel. If 
you must travel, take a winter storm kit along with you, including 
such items as flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also 
take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you 
survive in case you become stranded.

&&

$$

AKZ757-764-111200-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Western Capes-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Togiak, Goodnews Bay, Platinum,
Manokotak, and Dillingham
904 PM AKST Tue Feb 10 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations up to two inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Western Capes.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Localized areas of 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility to one-half 
  mile or less at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow rates (over 1 inch of snow 
  per hour) may end as early as this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather 
conditions will make travel very hazardous. Consider delaying 
travel. If you must travel, use caution. Take a winter storm kit 
along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, 
flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a 
first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case 
you become stranded.

&&

$$

AM

658 
WWAK42 PAFC 111204
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

AKZ755-111315-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island-
Including the cities of Mekoryuk, Quinhagak, Toksook Bay, and
Kipnuk
304 AM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Conditions have improved above Blizzard criteria. Periods of snow 
showers and gusty winds will continue through this morning, 
resulting in brief periods of reduced visibilities at times.

$$

AKZ756-757-764-111315-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260211T1200Z/
Interior Kuskokwim Delta-Western Capes-Northern Bristol Bay Coast-
Including the cities of Togiak, Manokotak, Kasigluk, Dillingham,
Akiachak, Platinum, Kwethluk, Goodnews Bay, and Bethel
304 AM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Conditions have improved. Periods of snow showers and gusty winds 
will continue through this morning, resulting in brief periods of 
reduced visibilities at times.

$$

Mitchell

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Sun Feb 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the upper level trough
digging south across the Interior and a surface trough driving
towards Prince William Sound is allowing for light snowfall to
continue across the Copper Valley with rain and snow for the
eastern Prince William Sound coast. Further east across Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley, low-level moisture and temperatures in
the mid 20s has resulted in freezing drizzle being observed this
afternoon following this morning's snow showers. Any remaining
freezing drizzle this afternoon is expected to taper off this
evening from south to north as snow chances begin to increase
tonight for Anchorage and the MatSu.

A shortwave tracking across Southwest Alaska will continue to
phase with the Arctic trough this evening before moving east over
Southcentral for Monday. As it does, a new surface low will spin
up south of Seward and move into Prince William Sound, absorbing
the other surface low near Cordova. The flow aloft will shift and
become more southerly as the shortwave moves over the Susitna
Valley, likely allowing for an area of light snow to develop from
Anchorage north to Talkeetna by early Monday morning. This wave
will move quickly east, and this will allow the snow to taper off
by late morning. The exception again may be northeast of Palmer,
given the southwesterly flow into the Matanuska Valley. Any snow
accumulations will be light, on the order of 1 to 2 inches, with
amounts near 3 inches closer to Sutton.

This wave will strengthen as it moves over the Copper River
Basin, drawing the surface low and its moisture northward over the
region. Snowfall rates Monday morning may approach one to two
inches per hour across the eastern half of the Basin as the
shortwave continues to drive through the region. While snow will
persist across the basin through Monday, the southwesterly flow
aloft will favor the upslope areas along the Tok Cutoff and the
Edgerton Highway. As such, up to an additional 8 to 12 inches is
possible for places like McCarthy and Chistochina to Mentasta
Pass. Northeasterly winds at the surface will also increase
through Mentasta Pass tonight into Monday, potentially leading to
areas of blowing snow and light drifting of snow along the Tok
Cutoff.

This system will move out of the region late Monday with snow
tapering off by Monday night. A transient ridge moves over
Southcentral for early Tuesday before a strong front moves from
the western Gulf to the northern Gulf with gales across western
half of the Gulf and snow changing to rain for Kodiak Island. The
front will quickly reach the northern Gulf by Tuesday evening with
widespread snow for many interior locations and snow changing to
rain along the coast.

-JH/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka low moving
through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

2) Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

3) Prolonged winter weather conditions expected for the Pribilof
Islands.

KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple products are in effect for the Kamchatka
low moving through the Bering Sea Monday / Tuesday.

A 950 mb Kamchatka low moves northward through the Western
Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday. It will
deepen as it crosses into the Bering Sea to a 940 mb low as the
trough digs deeper and the low becomes vertically stacked. Its
front reaches the Central and Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon
bringing south/southeasterly winds through the evening hours.
These winds stretch into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
Monday into Tuesday. As the low deepens, hurricane force winds
continue in the Central Aleutians with mainly storm force to
hurricane force winds in the Eastern Aleutians through Tuesday.
Precipitation during this time in the Aleutians will be high
elevation snowfall and a mix of rain/snow at lower elevations. The
front's passing will create an east to west wind flow causing the
best chance for strongest wind gusts between Monday evening and
Tuesday evening. Forecaster experience continues to lean toward a
snowier period of precipitation type during this time as the
occluding low brings colder air aloft to the surface and
increased precipitation rates that aid in cooler surface
temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow amounts will be highest in Southwest Alaska.

Conditions in Southwest Alaska won't fare any better with this
early week storm. The aforementioned front reaches the Southwest
Alaska coastline Tuesday morning bringing rain, snow and strong
winds to the region through Tuesday evening. We're monitoring the
potential for blizzard conditions for the Southwest coast, as
well as heavy snow for parts of Southwest Alaska, including
Bethel. Onshore wind flow could result in Bristol Bay and Bering
Sea coastal impacts. Various winter weather products have been
issued for the next 72 hours for this storm. Additionally, southerly
winds bring warmer temperatures to the Alaska Peninsula allowing
most of the precipitation to remain as rain though snow mixing in
with this rain at times is possible the next 72 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Prolonged winter weather conditions expected on the Pribilof
Islands.

As the low moves into the Bering Sea and its associated front
works its was northward, southerly to southeasterly winds are
expected. Though not a favorable direction for blizzard conditions
on the Islands, the heavy precipitation and wind gusts in the
40 mph to 60 mph range Monday and Tuesday could cause a prolonged
period of visibility conditions as low as 1/2 mile. The greatest
chance for these low visibility conditions range from Monday
evening into late Tuesday evening when the heaviest precipitation
is expected. Of note, temperatures will remain around 32 degrees
during his time frame and this is a change from previous model
guidance of a cooler solution during the heaviest precipitation.
Forecaster experience of pattern recognition lean towards a
cooler solution resulting in temperatures at or slightly below 32
degrees during this heavy precipitation time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Starting off the long term forecast on Wednesday lies a strong
low in the Eastern Bering. This low is expected to bring gale to
storm force winds to the Aleutians Islands and the Pribilof
Islands. Precipitation from the low is expected to be mostly
snowfall due to a cooler air mass wrapping around the low. Blowing
snow from the gusty winds and snowfall could reduce visibility.
Southcentral will be less active, but lingering snowfall from a
previous low is possible. Thursday has the low moving onshore
bringing snowfall to the mainland and gusty winds to the coast.
With this, winds and precipitation in the Bering will diminish.
However, a strong front from a Kamchatka low pushes into the
Western Aleutians, making its way eastward and pushing onshore by
Friday. This front will bring another round of gusty winds to the
Aleutians, but the airmass will be warmer due to southerly flow,
so rain or a rain/snow are the more likely precipitation types.
However, the Southwest Mainland will remain cold enough for snow
once the front pushes onshore on Friday. Meanwhile, shortwaves
moving through Southcentral could allow for some snowfall, but
this is uncertain at this point in time.

Uncertainty arises on Saturday with the potential for smaller
lows to move through the Bering. These would up winds and
precipitation chances for wherever they move over. Uncertainty for
Southcentral is a little better, with a low forming somewhere in
the northern Gulf, allowing for snowfall for the coast and
potentially inland as well. The picture will become more clear
overtime as guidance better resolves key features.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR and light northerly winds expected. Light snow is
possible after 06Z, with the most likely timeframe after 10Z. Snow
tapers off by Monday afternoon and ceilings are expected to
improve. There is a small potential for light freezing drizzle
before snow.

&&