Brisk Wind Advisory 36, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Sun Feb 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Southcentral Alaska sits in an upper-level col (area of weak
flow) this morning, between a broad upper-level low over the
North Pacific and a second upper-level trough digging south from
the Interior. Multiple shortwaves are rotating around the North
Pacific low, with the first bringing a surface trough into the
northern Gulf toward Prince William Sound. There is a weak
southwesterly flow between this feature and the upper-level trough
to the north. The result, is moisture advection across and over
the coastal mountains, with light snow wringing out over the
Copper River Basin and a few scattered flurries across the Cook
Inlet region. Farther northwest, skies remain clear over the
northern half of the the Susitna Valley, allowing temperatures
overnight to fall into the single digits above and below zero.

The challenge in the short term will be the extent and intensity
of any snow across the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys through
this morning as a weak vorticity lobe moves underneath the
northern trough and across these regions. While some very light
snow is likely, especially along upslope areas, any accumulations
should be nothing more than a dusting to a tenth of an inch at
most, with a few tenths of an inch possible toward Sutton. This
feature will be able to tap into additional moisture from a low
south of Cordova as it moves east. This will mean another round of
snow from Thompson Pass into the Copper River Basin. For Valdez,
any precipitation will likely be a mix of rain and snow before
colder temperature work towards this evening.

The northern shortwave will then dig south across Southwest Alaska
tonight, moving east over Southcentral for Monday. As it does, a
new surface low will spin up south of Seward and move into Prince
William Sound, absorbing the other surface low near Cordova. The
flow aloft will shift and become more southerly as the shortwave
moves over the Susitna Valley, likely allowing for an area of
light snow to develop from Anchorage north to Talkeetna by early
Monday morning. This wave will move quickly east, and this will
allow the snow to taper off by late morning. The exception again
may be northeast of Palmer, given the southwesterly flow into the
Matanuska Valley. Any snow accumulations will be light, on the
order of 1 to 2 inches, with amounts near 3 inches closer to
Sutton.

This wave will strengthen as it moves over the Copper River
Basin, drawing the surface low and its moisture northward over
the region. Snowfall rates Monday morning may approach one to two
inches per hour across the eastern half of the Basin as the
shortwave continues to drive through the region. While snow will
persist across the basin through Monday, the southwesterly flow
aloft will favor the upslope areas along the Tok Cutoff and the
Edgerton Highway. As such, 10 to 20 inches of snow is possible for
places like McCarthy and Chistochina to Mentasta Pass.
Northeasterly winds at the surface will also increase through
Mentasta Pass on Monday, potentially leading to areas of blowing
snow along the Tok Cutoff.

This system will move out of the region late Monday with snow
tapering off by Monday night. A transient ridge moves over
Southcentral for early Tuesday before a strong front moves from
the western Gulf to the northern Gulf with gales across western
half of the Gulf and snow changing to rain for Kodiak Island. The
front will quickly reach the northern Gulf by Tuesday evening with
widespread snow for many interior locations and snow changing to
rain along the coast.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

KEY MESSAGES...

1) EXTENDED: High Wind Warning for the Central Aleutians is now in
effect through noon on Tuesday.

2) A Kamchatka low moves through the Bering Monday / Tuesday.

3) NEW: Winter Storm Watch in effect for Kuskokwim Delta coast
and Nunivak Island from late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon due to the potential for heavy snow and blizzard
conditions

There have been few major changes, so the previous discussion is
copied below with minor edits:

KEY MESSAGE 1... High Wind Warning for the Central Aleutians

A 960 mb North Pacific low moves into the western Bering Sea west
of Adak through today. This will result in hurricane force winds
gusting to 85 mph from this afternoon through the evening hours
from Adak to Atka. Forecaster experience and pattern recognition
agrees with the good model agreement that strong winds arrive in
the Central Aleutians around mid-morning and switch from a
southeast to southwest wind direction by mid-afternoon. Most of
the precipitation with this system will fall as rain. As the winds
change direction, however, snow levels simultaneously fall and a
mix of rain and snow showers late tonight is likely in this area.
Reductions in visibility is expected during the rain/snow mix
though warm surface temperatures will be too warm for snow
accumulation or significant visibility reductions.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A Kamchatka low moves through the Bering
Monday / Tuesday

A 950 mb Kamchatka low moves northward through the Western
Aleutians and into the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday. It will
deepen as it crosses into the Bering Sea to a 940mb low as the
trough digs deeper and the low becomes vertically stacked. Its
front reaches the Central and Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon
bringing southeasterly winds through the evening hours. These
winds stretch into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
Monday into Tuesday. As the low deepens, hurricane force winds
remain in the Central Aleutians with storm force increasing to
hurricane force in the Eastern Aleutians through the day Monday.
Precipitation during this time will range from rain to frozen
precipitation to snow, though forecaster experience is leaning
toward a snowier period of precipitation as the occluding low will
bring in colder air aloft.

Conditions in Southwest Alaska won't fare any better with this
early week storm. The aforementioned front reaches the Southwest
Alaska coastline Tuesday morning and brings mixed precipitation
and strong winds to the region through Tuesday evening. We're
monitoring the potential for blizzard conditions for parts of the
Southwest coast, as well as heavy snow for parts of Southwest
Alaska. Confidence is high enough for a Winter Storm Watch to be
issued for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island, though
we'll be waiting for at least one more model cycle before
assessing the potential for advisories and warnings in other parts
of Southwest. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will allow
precipitation to remain mostly rain for the Aleutian Islands and
Alaska Peninsula, though strong moisture advection with this
system will bring a fair amount of accumulation, on the order of
0.5 to 1 inch.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

The beginning of the long term consists of a strong surface low
in the Bering Sea with a robust corresponding upper low sitting in
the crest of a deep longwave trough with multiple ripples of
enhanced vorticity and shortwaves rounding the trough. At the
surface, upper level support downstream of the trough over the
Gulf will induce cyclogenesis somewhere near Kodiak Island and the
Kenai Peninsula, bringing a plethora of moisture to coastal
Southcentral.

By Thursday, the amplification of the 500 mb flow out west
flattens a bit, with a transient ridge entering the picture as the
longwave trough moves eastward. The upper level flow sharpens
again heading into Friday. During this time, the aforementioned
Bering low is forced to move eastward towards Bristol Bay and the
Alaska Peninsula.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Conditions will remain primarily VFR with occasional MVFR
ceilings this morning with light snowfall. Precipitation chances
diminish around 21Z until a transient shortwave trough increases
chances again early Monday morning. Light northerly surface winds
will persist.

&&