Tornado Warning 7, NWS Aberdeen, SD

988 
WWUS53 KABR 022033
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
333 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDC017-022045-
/O.CON.KABR.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260702T2045Z/
Buffalo SD-
333 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY...

At 333 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles south of Danforth, or 25 miles east of Fort
Thompson, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Buffalo County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9895 4419 9893 4413 9892 4407 9893
      4410 9899
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 186DEG 21KT 4414 9892 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

SRF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe
weather this afternoon through tonight over much of the region. Main
hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind
gusts of 60-80 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning over much of the region. Main
hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind
gusts of 60-75 mph.

- Smoke from wildfires across the Western U.S. and Canada will
continue to remain mostly aloft through at least late Friday.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as
10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between late
this week through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Early morning convection across north central SD rolled east across
the ND/SD border through about midday and produced a fairly
substantial outflow boundary that has progressed southeastward across
the CWA during the mid to late morning hours. We saw some initial
convective shower and t-storm development along and to the north of
this boundary late this morning. More robust convection kicked off
along the southwestern flank of this outflow across parts of central
SD(north of Pierre) which was short-lived. Now, more numerous
convection is breaking out across parts of south central SD and in
the Pierre and Fort Thompson area.

A seasonably warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the
forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Broad southwest mid level
flow across the Dakotas contains multiple shortwave troughs. In
addition to the aforementioned sfc outflow boundary, a stationary
front is draped west to east across parts of central/southern SD
with a lee of the Black Hills sfc cyclone attendant to this front
across southwest/south central SD. Strong sfc heating through the
afternoon will lead to atmospheric destabilization with MLCAPE
values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg. RAP13/NAM12 depict a couple
areas of strongest instability developing across our southern zones,
basically along and south of U.S. Hwy 212 as well across across
portions of north central SD. MLCAPE values in those areas may reach
the 3500-4000 J/kg range. Deep layer shear magnitudes of 35-45 kts
and steep mid level lapse rates are progged to help contribute to
further convective development with time through the afternoon. This
is what we are already seeing signs of in the Pierre area early this
afternoon.

SPC continues to highlight our forecast area with an Enhanced (3 of
5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather mainly during the mid
afternoon hours through early Friday morning. Initial storm mode
favors discrete cells that form in the vicinity of these sfc
boundaries and move off said boundary toward the east-northeast.
Initial hazards will be large hail and tornadoes. However, with time
a more significant wind threat will develop as storms coalesce,
potentially forming an MCS type structure with bowing line segments
that will be capable of producing severe wind gusts up to 75 mph or
stronger. With shear vectors running nearly parallel to the sfc
boundary and increasing dew point depressions, outflow dominant
convection will be favored with time that will support this severe
wind threat. Can't rule out locally heavy rainfall with any of this
convection as weak flow will lead to slower moving storms and some
locales being affected by multiple cells over time. Areas that have
seen decent rains lately and that are saturated will be susceptible
to localized flooding. These threats will persist through the
evening into the early overnight hours before conditions start to
settle down early Friday morning.

Early Friday morning convection will be possible across our southern
and eastern zones with that activity shifting out of our area by mid
morning. We'll reset the mechanisms so to speak for Friday afternoon
and Friday night with much of the aforementioned thermodynamic
environment parameters returning to our forecast area. SPC has
highlighted our forecast area with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe
weather mainly for Friday afternoon through Friday night. Much the
same severe hazards will be in play once again with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Can't rule out a tornado either,
but probabilities for that activity look to be confined closer to
the SD/NE border. Convection is anticipated to push across our
eastern zones through the overnight hours into early Saturday and
perhaps could linger there through at least Saturday morning. Then,
we should start to calm down with drier conditions taking hold by
the latter half of Saturday through the end of the weekend. Wildfire
smoke aloft is progged to continue across the region through at
least the end of the day Friday, so when we aren't clouded up from
thunderstorm activity, a hazy type sky can be expected. The hot and
humid conditions are expected to persist through the end of the week
and the holiday weekend into the first half of next week. High
temperatures will likely remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for the
next several days and with dew point temperatures in the 60s to
around 70 degrees, overnight lows will only cool into the 60s
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main concerns for all terminals will be convection and potential
for severe wind gusts and severe hail through the remainder of
today into tonight. VFR conditions can be expected at all
terminals with temporary reduced cigs/vsbys if any storms cross
through any of the aerodromes. Winds will generally remain east
to southeasterly through the next 24 hours potentially gusting
up to 25 kts at times with any storm that affect the 4 terminals
capable of producing much stronger gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-034-036-037-051-030815-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Sully-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 /204 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms this
afternoon through the overnight hours. Main hazards are 2 inches or
more in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-80 mph. Additionally, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe storms to develop Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.
These storms could have hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60-75 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

SDZ033-035-045-048-030815-
Stanley-Hughes-Jones-Lyman-
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 /204 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms this
afternoon through the overnight hours. Main hazards are 2 inches or
more in diameter hail and wind gusts 60-80 mph. Additionally, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe storms to develop Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.
These storms could have hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60-75 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Funnel Cloud     1 W Blunt               44.52N 100.01W
07/02/2026                   Hughes             SD   Storm Chaser

            Storm chaser looking west reported a
            rotating wall cloud with funnels.

&&

SD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
227 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     Hail             7 SSW Gann Valley       43.95N 99.05W
07/02/2026  E1.75 Inch       Buffalo            SD   Trained Spotter

&&

SD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Hail             7 SSW Gann Valley       43.94N 99.04W
07/02/2026  M3.00 Inch       Buffalo            SD   Trained Spotter

            Photo relayed via text, included spotter
            ruler card.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SW Joe Creek Rec Area 44.08N 99.87W
07/02/2026  M64 MPH          Lyman              SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 285 Lower Brule 14 W
            (SDDOT).

&&

RV