Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an Enhanced (3 of 5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe
weather this afternoon through tonight over much of the region. Main
hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind
gusts of 60-80 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

- There is a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning over much of the region. Main
hazards will be large hail 1 to 2 inches in diameter and severe wind
gusts of 60-75 mph.

- Smoke from wildfires across the Western U.S. and Canada will
continue to remain mostly aloft through at least late Friday.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected throughout the
seven day forecast, with the warmest readings, possibly as much as
10 degrees above normal, running up into the low 90s between late
this week through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Early morning convection across north central SD rolled east across
the ND/SD border through about midday and produced a fairly
substantial outflow boundary that has progressed southeastward across
the CWA during the mid to late morning hours. We saw some initial
convective shower and t-storm development along and to the north of
this boundary late this morning. More robust convection kicked off
along the southwestern flank of this outflow across parts of central
SD(north of Pierre) which was short-lived. Now, more numerous
convection is breaking out across parts of south central SD and in
the Pierre and Fort Thompson area.

A seasonably warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the
forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Broad southwest mid level
flow across the Dakotas contains multiple shortwave troughs. In
addition to the aforementioned sfc outflow boundary, a stationary
front is draped west to east across parts of central/southern SD
with a lee of the Black Hills sfc cyclone attendant to this front
across southwest/south central SD. Strong sfc heating through the
afternoon will lead to atmospheric destabilization with MLCAPE
values ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg. RAP13/NAM12 depict a couple
areas of strongest instability developing across our southern zones,
basically along and south of U.S. Hwy 212 as well across across
portions of north central SD. MLCAPE values in those areas may reach
the 3500-4000 J/kg range. Deep layer shear magnitudes of 35-45 kts
and steep mid level lapse rates are progged to help contribute to
further convective development with time through the afternoon. This
is what we are already seeing signs of in the Pierre area early this
afternoon.

SPC continues to highlight our forecast area with an Enhanced (3 of
5) to Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather mainly during the mid
afternoon hours through early Friday morning. Initial storm mode
favors discrete cells that form in the vicinity of these sfc
boundaries and move off said boundary toward the east-northeast.
Initial hazards will be large hail and tornadoes. However, with time
a more significant wind threat will develop as storms coalesce,
potentially forming an MCS type structure with bowing line segments
that will be capable of producing severe wind gusts up to 75 mph or
stronger. With shear vectors running nearly parallel to the sfc
boundary and increasing dew point depressions, outflow dominant
convection will be favored with time that will support this severe
wind threat. Can't rule out locally heavy rainfall with any of this
convection as weak flow will lead to slower moving storms and some
locales being affected by multiple cells over time. Areas that have
seen decent rains lately and that are saturated will be susceptible
to localized flooding. These threats will persist through the
evening into the early overnight hours before conditions start to
settle down early Friday morning.

Early Friday morning convection will be possible across our southern
and eastern zones with that activity shifting out of our area by mid
morning. We'll reset the mechanisms so to speak for Friday afternoon
and Friday night with much of the aforementioned thermodynamic
environment parameters returning to our forecast area. SPC has
highlighted our forecast area with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe
weather mainly for Friday afternoon through Friday night. Much the
same severe hazards will be in play once again with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Can't rule out a tornado either,
but probabilities for that activity look to be confined closer to
the SD/NE border. Convection is anticipated to push across our
eastern zones through the overnight hours into early Saturday and
perhaps could linger there through at least Saturday morning. Then,
we should start to calm down with drier conditions taking hold by
the latter half of Saturday through the end of the weekend. Wildfire
smoke aloft is progged to continue across the region through at
least the end of the day Friday, so when we aren't clouded up from
thunderstorm activity, a hazy type sky can be expected. The hot and
humid conditions are expected to persist through the end of the week
and the holiday weekend into the first half of next week. High
temperatures will likely remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for the
next several days and with dew point temperatures in the 60s to
around 70 degrees, overnight lows will only cool into the 60s
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main concerns for all terminals will be convection and potential
for severe wind gusts and severe hail through the remainder of
today into tonight. VFR conditions can be expected at all
terminals with temporary reduced cigs/vsbys if any storms cross
through any of the aerodromes. Winds will generally remain east
to southeasterly through the next 24 hours potentially gusting
up to 25 kts at times with any storm that affect the 4 terminals
capable of producing much stronger gusts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
414 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDZ006-009>011-016>020-022-023-034-036-037-032115-
Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Hamlin-
Deuel-Sully-Hyde-Hand-
414 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms through
the overnight hours. Main hazards are 2 inches or more in diameter
hail and wind gusts 60-80 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe storms to develop Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.
These storms could have hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60-75 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>005-007-008-015-021-033-035-045-048-051-032115-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Marshall-Roberts-Dewey-
Grant-Stanley-Hughes-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
414 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 /314 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms through the
overnight hours. Main hazards are 2 inches or more in diameter hail
and wind gusts 60-80 mph. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe storms to develop Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.
These storms could have hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60-75 mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
403 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     11 SW Sunshine Bible Ac 44.20N 99.11W
07/02/2026  E70 MPH          Hand               SD   Public

            report relayed via EM. Time and location
            estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
406 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Gann Valley         44.08N 98.99W
07/02/2026  M62 MPH          Buffalo            SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 201 Gann Valley (SDDOT).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
419 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Gann Valley         44.08N 98.99W
07/02/2026  M81 MPH          Buffalo            SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 201 Gann Valley (SDDOT).

&&

RV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
439 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SE Reliance           43.85N 99.56W
07/02/2026  M63 MPH          Lyman              SD   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 54 Reliance (SDDOT).

&&

RV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
444 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

SDZ018-019-022215-
Spink SD-Clark SD-
444 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN SPINK COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 444 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carpenter, or 17 miles southwest of Clark, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Carpenter and Hillside Colony around 445 PM CDT.
  Fordham Colony and Clark Colony around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4463 9815 4485 9798 4473 9776 4463 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 217DEG 8KT 4469 9795

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

SRF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
536 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tornado          5 SW Willow Lake        44.59N 97.72W
07/02/2026                   Clark              SD   Fire Dept/Rescue

            tornado on the ground.

&&