Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Albuquerque, NM

869 
WGUS75 KABQ 162036
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMC047-162215-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0099.000000T0000Z-260816T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
236 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN
SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 236 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar had ended and
only light to moderate showers persisted. Between 1.25 and 2 inches
of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  El Porvenir, Gallinas and Mineral Hill.

This includes the following recreation areas...
E.V. Long Campground and El Porvenir Campground.

This also includes Blue Haven Youth Camp and Sebastian Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches in
the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows can
also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be washed
away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 10552 3572 10555 3568 10552 3559 10540
      3560 10539 3565 10541 3564 10532 3566 10531
      3582 10545

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

11

549 
WGUS75 KABQ 162212
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
412 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMC047-162222-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0099.000000T0000Z-260816T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
412 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN SCAR
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flash flooding
is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for a portion of
north central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 10552 3572 10555 3568 10552 3559 10540
      3560 10539 3565 10541 3564 10532 3566 10531
      3582 10545

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- There is a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding from the
  central mountain chain eastward today. A Flash Flood Watch is
  in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through early next week.

- Temperatures trend hotter again mid-next week, with major heat
  risk in the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the
  southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A moist boundary has pushed southward to I-40 this morning and will
continue slowly trekking south and westward overnight, eventually
pushing up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain by
the time of convective initiation this afternoon. In the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere, ridging will shift and amplify
overhead. This will have the effect of decreasing storm motions as
they move off the terrain. The slower and more erratic motion will
elevate the flash flood concern, with the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
of greatest concern given the influx of moisture overnight and
modest moist upslope flow. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch was issued
for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar where hi-res models have
been consistently showing rainfall amounts of 1-2" within the
central and southern portions of the burn scar the favored areas.
Storms will also develop along a sfc boundary in the eastern plains
and there could be training of storms with heavy rainfall rates in a
moist environment with PWATs upwards of 1.5". Storms that develop
over the Sandia/Manzano Mountains will send a boundary westward into
the Rio Grande Valley and this will generate briefly strong east
canyon wind gusts. There could be enough instability to re-generate
storms in the Albuquerque metro during the evening hours, but there
is low confidence in this happening.

Storm outflows will push sfc moisture westward Sunday evening and
overnight, with PWATs rising ticking up a tenth or two in central
and western NM. Monday's storm coverage will expand westward as a
result with a robust crop of storms over the Continental Divide and
the northern mountains. Storm motions will be slow and erratic as
high pressure centers itself overhead. Outflow boundaries will move
into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening, but
these may struggle to generate additional convection given the
modest instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Moisture will be scoured out Tuesday, with PWATs dropping down to
near to slightly below normal. This combined with less favorable
thermodynamics and increasing subsidence aloft will translate to a
notable downtick in storms Tuesday afternoon, with only isolated
activity favoring the Southwest and South Central Mountains.

The monsoon ridge will then shift westward into The Great Basin
Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave riding over the ridge will exit
into the High Plains Wednesday afternoon, sending a backdoor front
into eastern NM and replenishing moisture once again. The uptick
Thursday (and potentially Friday) will be relatively short-lived as
drier air sneaks back in from the southeast.

The other story mid to late week will be the heat. Temperatures will
generally run 5 to 10 degrees above normal, which will create
pockets of major heat risk in lower elevation areas, including
Albuquerque and Roswell. Model consensus shows the ridge centering
itself over the southern Rockies late week, with weak easterly
steering flow over most of New Mexico. The monsoon high is progged
to slowly shift eastward late week into the weekend, with easterly
flow becoming more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorms will be focused along and near the central mountain
chain of New Mexico this afternoon with storms gradually shifting
toward the east central to northeastern high plains through the
evening. The mountains of southwestern New Mexico will also see a
few storms this afternoon. Storms will largely die off before
midnight, but a few lighter showers will linger into the early
morning. Pilots can expect the typical aviation weather hazards of
hail, frequent lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief
downpours limiting ceilings and visibilities near and under any
thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will also be prevalent with high
density altitude readings suggesting poor aircraft performance for
some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will favor areas along and east
of the central mountain chain, with the highest chances for wetting
rainfall over the southern and eastern slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Storms become more widespread on Monday as outflow
boundaries push more moisture into central and western New Mexico.

The monsoon high will shift into northern New Mexico Monday,
eventually shifting westward into Arizona by mid-week. Drier
conditions are likely Tuesday, with a wetter trend
Wednesday/Thursday as another backdoor front replenishes moisture
for at least eastern areas. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer
next week, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal in most areas
Tuesday onward. This will translate to lower afternoon humidity,
bottoming out at 15 to 25% in most areas each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  52  89  51 /   0   0  10  10
Cuba............................  88  58  87  58 /   0   5  30  20
Gallup..........................  88  57  89  57 /   0   5  30  10
El Morro........................  83  56  82  55 /  10  20  50  20
Grants..........................  88  58  86  57 /  10  20  50  20
Quemado.........................  85  58  83  57 /  20  20  60  20
Magdalena.......................  86  62  83  62 /  30  30  50  30
Datil...........................  82  57  79  56 /  20  40  60  20
Reserve.........................  90  56  87  56 /  30  30  60  20
Glenwood........................  94  62  91  61 /  30  30  70  30
Chama...........................  82  51  82  50 /   0   0  20  20
Los Alamos......................  86  61  84  61 /  20  10  50  20
Pecos...........................  85  56  83  56 /  70  30  70  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  55  82  55 /  10  10  40  20
Red River.......................  75  43  75  44 /  30  20  50  20
Angel Fire......................  78  39  78  38 /  40  20  60  20
Taos............................  86  55  85  54 /   5   5  40  20
Mora............................  79  52  79  52 /  70  30  60  30
Espanola........................  93  58  91  57 /  20  10  40  20
Santa Fe........................  86  61  85  59 /  40  20  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  88  57 /  30  20  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  65  89  66 /  40  20  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  66  91  67 /  30  20  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  60  93  61 /  20  20  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  92  67 /  20  20  40  20
Belen...........................  95  64  93  64 /  20  20  30  20
Bernalillo......................  94  64  92  64 /  30  20  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  94  61  92  61 /  20  20  30  20
Corrales........................  95  65  93  65 /  30  20  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  94  63  92  64 /  20  20  30  20
Placitas........................  90  63  88  63 /  40  20  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  94  66  91  66 /  20  20  40  20
Socorro.........................  96  68  93  67 /  30  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  59  84  59 /  50  30  50  20
Tijeras.........................  87  61  85  61 /  50  30  50  20
Edgewood........................  86  57  85  56 /  50  30  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  55  87  54 /  60  40  50  30
Clines Corners..................  83  56  83  57 /  60  50  50  30
Mountainair.....................  87  56  86  57 /  60  30  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  85  58  85  58 /  70  30  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  89  62  88  63 /  80  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  82  52  81  55 /  40  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  79  53  82  54 /  80  60  50  20
Raton...........................  84  53  85  53 /  80  30  50  20
Springer........................  85  54  86  54 /  70  30  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  55  82  55 /  70  40  50  20
Clayton.........................  86  60  89  63 /  40  60  20  20
Roy.............................  84  58  85  59 /  50  40  30  20
Conchas.........................  92  63  94  63 /  50  50  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  90  62  90  62 /  40  60  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  93  62  95  64 /  50  50  20  10
Clovis..........................  93  65  94  66 /  20  10  10   5
Portales........................  95  65  96  67 /  10   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  94  65  94  66 /  40  30  20   5
Roswell.........................  98  69  98  69 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  63  91  63 /  30  10  20   5
Elk.............................  87  59  86  59 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52