Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Albuquerque, NM

580 
WWUS55 KABQ 162007
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMC007-162045-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-260816T2045Z/
Colfax NM-
207 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

At 207 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Raton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Raton, Sugarite and Sugarite Canyon State Park.

This includes the following highways...
Highway 64 between Mile Markers 350 and 353. Interstate 25 between
Mile Markers 450 and 460.

This includes the following recreation areas...
Sugarite Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 10465 3699 10466 3699 10431 3684 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 279DEG 15KT 3698 10463

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

11

282 
WWUS55 KABQ 162039
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMC007-162049-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0252.000000T0000Z-260816T2045Z/
Colfax NM-
239 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, small
hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT Sunday
for a portion of northeast New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 10465 3699 10466 3699 10431 3684 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 279DEG 15KT 3697 10456

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1153 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- There is a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding from the
  central mountain chain eastward today. A Flash Flood Watch is
  in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through early next week.

- Temperatures trend hotter again mid-next week, with major heat
  risk in the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the
  southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A moist boundary has pushed southward to I-40 this morning and will
continue slowly trekking south and westward overnight, eventually
pushing up against the east slopes of the central mountain chain by
the time of convective initiation this afternoon. In the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere, ridging will shift and amplify
overhead. This will have the effect of decreasing storm motions as
they move off the terrain. The slower and more erratic motion will
elevate the flash flood concern, with the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
of greatest concern given the influx of moisture overnight and
modest moist upslope flow. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch was issued
for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar where hi-res models have
been consistently showing rainfall amounts of 1-2" within the
central and southern portions of the burn scar the favored areas.
Storms will also develop along a sfc boundary in the eastern plains
and there could be training of storms with heavy rainfall rates in a
moist environment with PWATs upwards of 1.5". Storms that develop
over the Sandia/Manzano Mountains will send a boundary westward into
the Rio Grande Valley and this will generate briefly strong east
canyon wind gusts. There could be enough instability to re-generate
storms in the Albuquerque metro during the evening hours, but there
is low confidence in this happening.

Storm outflows will push sfc moisture westward Sunday evening and
overnight, with PWATs rising ticking up a tenth or two in central
and western NM. Monday's storm coverage will expand westward as a
result with a robust crop of storms over the Continental Divide and
the northern mountains. Storm motions will be slow and erratic as
high pressure centers itself overhead. Outflow boundaries will move
into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and evening, but
these may struggle to generate additional convection given the
modest instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Moisture will be scoured out Tuesday, with PWATs dropping down to
near to slightly below normal. This combined with less favorable
thermodynamics and increasing subsidence aloft will translate to a
notable downtick in storms Tuesday afternoon, with only isolated
activity favoring the Southwest and South Central Mountains.

The monsoon ridge will then shift westward into The Great Basin
Wednesday and Thursday. A shortwave riding over the ridge will exit
into the High Plains Wednesday afternoon, sending a backdoor front
into eastern NM and replenishing moisture once again. The uptick
Thursday (and potentially Friday) will be relatively short-lived as
drier air sneaks back in from the southeast.

The other story mid to late week will be the heat. Temperatures will
generally run 5 to 10 degrees above normal, which will create
pockets of major heat risk in lower elevation areas, including
Albuquerque and Roswell. Model consensus shows the ridge centering
itself over the southern Rockies late week, with weak easterly
steering flow over most of New Mexico. The monsoon high is progged
to slowly shift eastward late week into the weekend, with easterly
flow becoming more southerly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorms will be focused along and near the central mountain
chain of New Mexico this afternoon with storms gradually shifting
toward the east central to northeastern high plains through the
evening. The mountains of southwestern New Mexico will also see a
few storms this afternoon. Storms will largely die off before
midnight, but a few lighter showers will linger into the early
morning. Pilots can expect the typical aviation weather hazards of
hail, frequent lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief
downpours limiting ceilings and visibilities near and under any
thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will also be prevalent with high
density altitude readings suggesting poor aircraft performance for
some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Scattered showers and storms today will favor areas along and east
of the central mountain chain, with the highest chances for wetting
rainfall over the southern and eastern slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Storms become more widespread on Monday as outflow
boundaries push more moisture into central and western New Mexico.

The monsoon high will shift into northern New Mexico Monday,
eventually shifting westward into Arizona by mid-week. Drier
conditions are likely Tuesday, with a wetter trend
Wednesday/Thursday as another backdoor front replenishes moisture
for at least eastern areas. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer
next week, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal in most areas
Tuesday onward. This will translate to lower afternoon humidity,
bottoming out at 15 to 25% in most areas each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  52  89  51 /   0   0  10  10
Cuba............................  88  58  87  58 /   0   5  30  20
Gallup..........................  88  57  89  57 /   0   5  30  10
El Morro........................  83  56  82  55 /  10  20  50  20
Grants..........................  88  58  86  57 /  10  20  50  20
Quemado.........................  85  58  83  57 /  20  20  60  20
Magdalena.......................  86  62  83  62 /  30  30  50  30
Datil...........................  82  57  79  56 /  20  40  60  20
Reserve.........................  90  56  87  56 /  30  30  60  20
Glenwood........................  94  62  91  61 /  30  30  70  30
Chama...........................  82  51  82  50 /   0   0  20  20
Los Alamos......................  86  61  84  61 /  20  10  50  20
Pecos...........................  85  56  83  56 /  70  30  70  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  55  82  55 /  10  10  40  20
Red River.......................  75  43  75  44 /  30  20  50  20
Angel Fire......................  78  39  78  38 /  40  20  60  20
Taos............................  86  55  85  54 /   5   5  40  20
Mora............................  79  52  79  52 /  70  30  60  30
Espanola........................  93  58  91  57 /  20  10  40  20
Santa Fe........................  86  61  85  59 /  40  20  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  88  57 /  30  20  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  65  89  66 /  40  20  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  66  91  67 /  30  20  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  60  93  61 /  20  20  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  92  67 /  20  20  40  20
Belen...........................  95  64  93  64 /  20  20  30  20
Bernalillo......................  94  64  92  64 /  30  20  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  94  61  92  61 /  20  20  30  20
Corrales........................  95  65  93  65 /  30  20  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  94  63  92  64 /  20  20  30  20
Placitas........................  90  63  88  63 /  40  20  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  94  66  91  66 /  20  20  40  20
Socorro.........................  96  68  93  67 /  30  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  59  84  59 /  50  30  50  20
Tijeras.........................  87  61  85  61 /  50  30  50  20
Edgewood........................  86  57  85  56 /  50  30  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  55  87  54 /  60  40  50  30
Clines Corners..................  83  56  83  57 /  60  50  50  30
Mountainair.....................  87  56  86  57 /  60  30  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  85  58  85  58 /  70  30  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  89  62  88  63 /  80  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  82  52  81  55 /  40  20  40  20
Capulin.........................  79  53  82  54 /  80  60  50  20
Raton...........................  84  53  85  53 /  80  30  50  20
Springer........................  85  54  86  54 /  70  30  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  55  82  55 /  70  40  50  20
Clayton.........................  86  60  89  63 /  40  60  20  20
Roy.............................  84  58  85  59 /  50  40  30  20
Conchas.........................  92  63  94  63 /  50  50  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  90  62  90  62 /  40  60  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  93  62  95  64 /  50  50  20  10
Clovis..........................  93  65  94  66 /  20  10  10   5
Portales........................  95  65  96  67 /  10   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  94  65  94  66 /  40  30  20   5
Roswell.........................  98  69  98  69 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  63  91  63 /  30  10  20   5
Elk.............................  87  59  86  59 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMZ227-162015-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass NM-
139 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 139 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles west of Raton, and is stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of North Central Colfax County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10460 3693 10451 3686 10484 3699 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 329DEG 2KT 3698 10478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

NMZ215-162015-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-
151 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MORA AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 151 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ocate, or 23 miles northeast of Mora, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ocate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 10517 3630 10517 3631 10493 3629 10493
      3628 10492 3627 10492 3626 10491 3624 10492
      3624 10494 3623 10494 3623 10495 3622 10494
      3621 10492 3618 10493 3618 10494 3616 10494
      3609 10495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 281DEG 5KT 3622 10506

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11