Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
206 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- There is a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding from the
  central mountain chain eastward today. A Flash Flood Watch is
  in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact air quality across
  portions of northern New Mexico through early next week.

- Temperatures trend hotter again mid-next week, with major heat
  risk in the lower elevations of central New Mexico and the
  southeast plains, including Albuquerque and Roswell.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure is starting to nudge westward with heights rising a
bit and winds aloft relaxing more. The lighter wind field will
lead to slower and more erratic storm motions through the rest of
the afternoon which will give way to some isolated heavy rainfall
totals, mainly over and near the central mountain chain. The
moist backdoor front may not have slid as far south or west as
what earlier prognoses indicated, but it still is leading to a
more moist southeasterly upslope flow over the Sangre de Cristos,
and a synoptic southeasterly fetch from the Gulf continues to
make it to the east slopes of the central and south central
mountains of NM. This has led to convective initiation with strong
storms producing heavy rainfall rates. Activity will translate
eastward into the east central and northeastern plains through the
evening. Overall bulk shear does not appear to be quite as high
as previously advertised, given weaker winds behind the backdoor
front, and this should tend to keep the strong to severe threat
confined over far northeastern NM (Colfax and Union counties).
Convective outflows will likely spill into the Glorieta Pass and
Tijeras Canyon, leading to gusty gap/canyon winds for a couple of
hours this evening, but this is looking to be a shorter duration
event than what was previously advertised yesterday. Storms will
mostly dissipate before midnight, but a few CAMs are indicating
lingering showers persisting into the early morning hours Monday.

Storms will hurl out convective outflows this evening, including
into the middle Rio Grande valley which will temporarily offer a
boost in low layer moisture through early Monday. This will allow
storms to expand in coverage a bit on Monday afternoon, but the
focus will tend to stretch from the Gila northeastward into the
Sangre de Cristos where the strongest semblance of a monsoon
moisture plume will be found. PWATs look to range between 0.8 to
1.1 inches in most of this area, but drier air will be holding in
the northwestern third or so of NM, potentially wrapping a bit
farther into the Sangre de Cristos which might limit rainfall
efficiency there Monday afternoon. No Flood Watches are planned,
and overall the heavy rainfall threat is expected to turn more
isolated and sparse into Monday as the high keeps building
westward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A notable downtrend in convection is then forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday as the upper high builds more directly on top of NM.
Ensemble mean heights look to rise to around 594-595 decameters
with a few deterministic members showing a couple decameters
higher. Temperatures will rise and offer instability, but the
strong high will entrain drier air and cut off any significant
monsoon moisture plumes while introducing a bit of subsidence.
Storms will still initiate over the high terrain, but will become
less efficient at rainfall production with smaller footprints
reaching the ground due to lower PWATs of generally (0.7 to 0.9
inch).

Deterministic models are indicating that a central plains
shortwave will send a surface boundary into southeastern CO and
far northeastern NM which may act as a brief catalyst for storms
there late Wednesday. This boundary would only offer a few degrees
of cooling over eastern plains zones with all areas still staying
above normal into Thursday. The hope is that this backdoor front
would advect increasing low layer moisture farther south and west
for more widespread shower and thunderstorm development Thursday
and Friday afternoons, but the PWATs only look to rise back to a
0.8 to 1.0 inch range which may only bring a modest increase in
storm coverage. The upper high will orbit close to NM through
next weekend too, keeping us dependent on recycled moisture. The
above normal temperatures will creep within a couple to a few
degrees of Heat Advisory thresholds in the upper 90's and low
100's Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Thunderstorms will be focused along and near the central mountain
chain of New Mexico this afternoon with storms gradually shifting
toward the east central to northeastern high plains through the
evening. The mountains of southwestern New Mexico will also see a
few storms this afternoon. Storms will largely die off before
midnight, but a few lighter showers will linger into the early
morning. Pilots can expect the typical aviation weather hazards of
hail, frequent lightning, gusty downburst winds, and brief
downpours limiting ceilings and visibilities near and under any
thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will also be prevalent with high
density altitude readings suggesting poor aircraft performance for
some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

No widespread areas of strong winds are forecast through the next
several days with convective outflows being the primary concern.
Storm coverage will favor the central mountain chain through the
afternoon before cells roll into the east central and northeastern
plains this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and a couple of strong
to severe storms will favor northeastern NM. This activity will
dwindle slowly this evening into the overnight. A slight expansion
in storm coverage is then forecast for Monday after this evening's
storms push moisture farther west and south. After Monday, wetting
rainfall potential reduces into Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure strengthens and drier air mixes in. In addition to fewer
storms, hotter temperatures and lower afternoon humidity (15-25%)
will become more common Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak backdoor
front will slide in late Wednesday and Thursday, but will not
offer much in the way of temperature relief, just a modest uptick
in shower/storm coverage Thursday and perhaps into Friday. Areas
on the northwestern fringe of the better monsoon moisture will be
conducive to drier storms that produce less rainfall. In fact,
some isolated dry thunderstorms have been kept in the forecast for
a few of these north central to northwestern areas through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  93  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  52  89  51  91 /   0  10  10   5
Cuba............................  58  87  58  89 /   5  30  20  10
Gallup..........................  57  89  57  90 /   5  30  10  20
El Morro........................  56  82  55  84 /  20  50  20  30
Grants..........................  58  86  57  89 /  20  50  20  30
Quemado.........................  58  83  57  85 /  20  60  20  40
Magdalena.......................  62  83  62  85 /  30  50  30  30
Datil...........................  57  79  56  82 /  40  60  20  40
Reserve.........................  56  87  56  89 /  30  60  20  40
Glenwood........................  62  91  61  93 /  30  70  30  40
Chama...........................  51  82  50  84 /   0  20  20  20
Los Alamos......................  61  84  61  86 /  10  50  20  40
Pecos...........................  56  83  56  88 /  30  70  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  55  82  55  85 /  10  40  20  30
Red River.......................  43  75  44  78 /  20  50  20  30
Angel Fire......................  39  78  38  81 /  20  60  20  30
Taos............................  55  85  54  88 /   5  40  20  20
Mora............................  52  79  52  85 /  30  60  30  30
Espanola........................  58  91  57  93 /  10  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  61  85  59  89 /  20  50  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  58  88  57  91 /  20  50  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  89  66  93 /  20  50  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  91  67  94 /  20  40  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  93  61  96 /  20  40  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  92  67  95 /  20  40  20   5
Belen...........................  64  93  64  96 /  20  30  20   5
Bernalillo......................  64  92  64  95 /  20  40  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  61  92  61  95 /  20  30  20   5
Corrales........................  65  93  65  96 /  20  40  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  63  92  64  95 /  20  30  20   5
Placitas........................  63  88  63  92 /  20  50  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  66  91  66  94 /  20  40  20   5
Socorro.........................  68  93  67  96 /  30  30  20   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  84  59  88 /  30  50  20  10
Tijeras.........................  61  85  61  89 /  30  50  20  10
Edgewood........................  57  85  56  89 /  30  50  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  87  54  91 /  40  50  30  20
Clines Corners..................  56  83  57  87 /  50  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  56  86  57  89 /  30  50  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  85  58  88 /  30  40  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  62  88  63  91 /  30  40  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  52  81  55  84 /  20  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  53  82  54  86 /  60  50  20  20
Raton...........................  53  85  53  91 /  30  50  20  20
Springer........................  54  86  54  93 /  30  50  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  82  55  88 /  40  50  20  20
Clayton.........................  60  89  63  95 /  60  20  20  10
Roy.............................  58  85  59  91 /  40  30  20  10
Conchas.........................  63  94  63  99 /  50  20  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  62  90  62  95 /  60  20  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  62  95  64 100 /  50  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  65  94  66  97 /  10  10   5   0
Portales........................  65  96  67  99 /   5   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  94  66  98 /  30  20   5   0
Roswell.........................  69  98  69 100 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  91  63  94 /  10  20   5  10
Elk.............................  59  86  59  90 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

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