Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

  - Widespread thunderstorm development remains expected this
    evening and into Monday, with highest confidence across the
    southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Heavy rain and
    flooding will remain the primary concern, with severe
    thunderstorm hazards also a threat.

  - Additional showers and thunderstorms, with largely a heavy
    rain and continued flooding threat, are expected through
    Monday with a shift more toward southeast Oklahoma and west
    central Arkansas.

  - Widespread flash flooding and mainstem river flooding
    potential will continue through the rest of the Memorial Day
    holiday weekend. Flood safety messaging will remain a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Therough Tonight)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Widespread thunderstorm development remains expected this evening
and overnight, with a focus across the southern half to two-thirds
of the forecast area. Thunderstorms currently ongoing across far
east central Oklahoma and into western Arkansas are elevated, with
mainly a threat for heavy rain and marginally severe hail through
mid afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the past
hour in south central Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a surface front
that extends into southeast Oklahoma. Very moist conditions are
located across that portion of the forecast area with a large area
of mid 70s dew points present, leading to a highly unstable
airmass along and just north of the Red River. This boundary,
which is farther south than some models depict, should continue
to be a focus for development this evening, with all severe
weather hazards possible. There may be some northward movement in
the boundary as the low level jet strengthens aided by some
modest clearing occurring behind the ongoing activity farther
north. However, still think a more southern solution with the
strongest activity this evening remains the most likely one.

Attention is also on the potential for development this afternoon
in West Texas that will eventually congeal into a mature MCS and
move eastward toward mainly southeast Oklahoma into early Monday
morning. A damaging wind threat will likely accompany the MCS as
it moves across far southeast Oklahoma, with the heavy rain threat
extending farther northward.

Given the very heavy rains that have occurred in the past 12 hours
across a swath from Osage County through the Tulsa metro and into
northwest Arkansas will remain the most susceptible part of the
forecast area to rapid onset flash flooding. Unfortunately, a good
portion of this area looks to be within the likely northern
extent of the heaviest rains this evening. Southeast Oklahoma also
remains very saturated from rains over the past week, especially
from northern Pittsburg County eastward into the northern half of
LeFlore County. As a result, this area will also be susceptible to
rapid onset flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Memorial Day through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

There will likely be a relative lull in the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms during the morning hours on Monday on the heels
of the overnight thunderstorm complex. The next batch of showers
and thunderstorms will be more likely to develop mid to late
afternoon to the west and southwest, moving eastward across the
region through the evening, focused in southeast Oklahoma.
Depending on how this evolves and what happens rainfall wise
tonight, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into Monday night
for southern portions of the region. The severe weather threat
does not look substantial, although it is nonzero.

The pattern will remain fairly active, from a continued isolated
to scatteered shower and thunderstorm perspective, mid to late in
the upcoming work week as a result of a stubborn upper low in the
Upper Midwest. Low to medium thunderstorm chances will be timed
with impulses rotating around the southern periphery of the low.
The overall severe thunderstorm threat does not look substantial
given the unseasonably cool conditions and lower dew points.

Warmer conditions should make a return by the weekend, as the
upper low finally shifts eastward and upper level ridging moves
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Aviation impacts will continue through much of this forecast
period. Ongoing showers and storms will primarily impact western
AR terminals through mid afternoon. Additional storms likely
develop by late afternoon and evening with likelihood of impacts
increasing again especially across SE OK into western AR. Low
ceilings in the MVFR to IFR range will also periodically impact
sites away from storms with the lower ceilings becoming more
widespread overnight. Precip coverage likely diminishes toward the
end of this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  72  60  73 /  90  60  70  20
FSM   66  76  65  79 /  90  80  80  30
MLC   66  77  62  77 /  90  70  80  20
BVO   59  70  57  71 /  80  70  70  20
FYV   60  71  60  75 /  80  80  70  40
BYV   59  66  59  73 /  80  80  70  50
MKO   64  74  61  73 /  90  70  80  30
MIO   61  69  60  71 /  70  80  70  30
F10   64  75  61  73 /  90  60  80  20
HHW   67  77  65  79 /  90  80  80  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
111 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
111 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH
MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN and FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated strong to severe storms will persist through mid afternoon
along with periods of heavy rain. Flooding concerns will remain
across a corridor from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas
where excessive rains fell early Sunday.

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity by mid to
late afternoon especially along and south of Interstate 40.
Additional storms will spread across the region this evening
through the early morning hours on Monday. The higher severe
weather threat late tonight will be across southeast Oklahoma.
The additional storms will further increase the flood potential
as heavy rainfall will remain a hazard through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The majority of the severe weather and heavy rain threats should exit
the area by Monday morning with a lower chances of thunderstorms later
in the day Monday. Another round of widespread showers and storms is
forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Any heavy rains will likely
increase flooding concerns. Thunderstorm chances decrease by mid week
before returning again late in the work week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ074>076-252015-
Haskell OK-Latimer OK-Le Flore OK-
233 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HASKELL...NORTHERN
LATIMER AND CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Wilburton to 3 miles northwest of Red Oak to
5 miles east of Heavener. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Red Oak...                        Damon...
Panola...                         Summerfield...
Robbers Cave State Park...        Fanshawe...
Wilburton...                      Poteau...
Wister...                         Lake Wister State Park...
Heavener...                       Howe...
Bengal...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 9444 3483 9445 3485 9461 3482 9542
      3504 9534 3510 9480 3509 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 267DEG 44KT 3493 9533 3500 9511 3492 9452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Flood            5 W Sand Springs        36.15N 96.19W
05/25/2025                   Tulsa              OK   Amateur Radio

            Portion of roadway still underwater at 177 W
            Avenue and Wekiwa Road.

&&

KAH

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