Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

  - Thunderstorms persist early this morning across eastern
    Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Flooding threat will
    continue, in addition to severe weather concerns.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Widespread heavy rainfall footprint expected through Monday
    across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest/west central
    Arkansas. The holiday weekend will have many outdoor
    activities and the prolonged heavy rainfall potential may
    expose many to an increasing flood risk. Flood safety
    awareness remains a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across northern portions of
the area early this morning with a risk for severe hail and
wind gusts. Convection will likely continue into the daylight
hours across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Latest
trends and near-term guidance suggest development of some bowing
segments through the morning hours, which would imply a locally
enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts. Precip gradually shifts
south, primarily impacting areas along and south of the I-40
corridor this afternoon, with more isolated to scattered coverage
to the north. A synoptic front will become the primary focus for
additional development this afternoon and evening as it sags
south through the FA. Severe potential persists with any
redevelopment this afternoon.

By late afternoon/ evening, a mid level wave will be approaching
the region from the west, promoting height falls across much of
Oklahoma. This is expected to ignite additional storms which will
then move into our area during the evening and overnight period.
As has been the case for the last couple nights, the environment
will be capable of producing severe weather tonight, this time
with more of a focus on damaging wind gusts... though large hail
and a low tornado potential may exist near the boundary as well.
While rain coverage will likely encompass much of the forecast
area, the synoptic front will be making gradual progress south
during this time and highest storm coverage and severe threat
should tend to move towards E-Central/ Southeast Oklahoma and
W-Central Arkansas overnight.

Significant flooding potential is anticipated areawide today and
tonight given multiple rounds of storms, anomalously high PWAT
values, and saturated soils from previous day's precipitation.
Several more inches of rainfall will be possible across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning, extending into
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later in the day and
tonight. Considering the rainfall footprint over the last 36 hours
and tendency for storms to focus more across the south later
tonight into Monday, have expanded the current Flood Watch to
include Pushmataha and Choctaw counties as well. Please keep flood
safety in mind today and tonight, and as always, do not attempt
to drive through flooded roadways. Additionally, be especially
attentive when traveling at night as it is more difficult to
identify floodwater in the dark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

By Monday morning, the bulk of heavy precip should be moving off
to the southeast of the CWA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain possible through the day, however, as upper troughing
moves through the region. Locally heavy rainfall will remain
possible through Monday night, as well as a limited risk for
severe hail/ wind. The associated sfc low navigates eastward into
Tuesday with drier northerly flow filling into the region and
precip ending from west to east. By late Wednesday night into
thursday, another wave will be approaching the region with another
round of showers and storms areawide. Will need to keep an eye on
the heavy rain potential with this system, but it is not looking
as intense as the current stretch of rainfall. Periodic low rain
chances may persist into next weekend, but in general the forecast
appears to become drier with time as ridging attempts to push
into the central plains. Temperatures through the extended period
will begin below average before warning back to near average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Initially VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR by Sunday morning and
will likely remain mainly MVFR for the rest of the forecast
period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
overnight into Sunday morning, especially at the northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Another round of showers
and storms will likely occur late Sunday and Sunday night, but the
location and timing of this activity is unclear at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  64  75  60 /  70  80  80  70
FSM   84  67  78  65 /  70  80  90  80
MLC   87  66  78  62 /  50  90  80  80
BVO   76  59  73  56 /  90  90  80  70
FYV   79  61  74  60 /  90  90  80  70
BYV   74  59  68  60 /  90  90  80  80
MKO   80  64  75  61 /  80  90  80  70
MIO   74  61  69  60 /  90  90  70  70
F10   81  64  76  61 /  70  90  80  70
HHW   89  67  76  65 /  30  70  90  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH
MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...After 9 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 pm.

FLASH FLOOD and HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 pm.

DISCUSSION...
An increase in storm coverage is expected this evening across eastern
Oklahoma, expanding into northwest Arkansas during the late evening
hours. Strong instability and wind shear profiles remain across the
region, which will support an increasing severe weather risk this
evening and persisting through the overnight hours. Additionally, an
outflow boundary will remain across eastern Oklahoma this evening,
which could become a focus for a limited tornado threat. Otherwise,
the overall coverage of storms will steadily increase overnight with
a continued large hail and damaging wind threat. Rainfall accumulations
will continue to increase with another round of widespread and locally
heavy rains. Flooding potential will become more widespread and
potentially significant. Be prepared to take flood safety actions,
especially for any outdoor activities that extend into the overnight
hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
TUESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather may be ongoing early Sunday along with continued heavy
rains and flooding. A similar weather scenario is likely Sunday
afternoon through Monday with thunderstorms developing and expanding
in coverage with a risk of severe weather and additional heavy
rains. The coverage of thunderstorms is forecast to become less by
mid week, however, the weather pattern will remain unsettled and
daily thunderstorm chances continue.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ056-057-060>062-064-067-250900-
Tulsa OK-Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Mayes OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
321 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG...ROGERS...
NORTHEASTERN CREEK...MAYES...SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA...WAGONER AND TULSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 320 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles east of Watova to near Inola to 2 miles
north of Kellyville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Broken Arrow...
Sapulpa...                        Inola...
Vinita...                         Collinsville...
Mazie...                          Jenks Riverside Airport...
Snowdale State Park...            Locust Grove...
Watova...                         Big Cabin...
Stonebluff...                     Talala...
Chouteau...                       Chelsea...
Pryor Creek...                    Leonard...
Jenks...                          White Oak...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 203 and 283.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9515 3609 9514 3607 9521 3605 9521
      3580 9561 3581 9564 3586 9565 3585 9583
      3598 9634 3616 9613 3617 9600 3627 9600
      3637 9588 3643 9585 3642 9581 3650 9581
      3674 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 0820Z 275DEG 27KT 3662 9559 3614 9557 3599 9622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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