Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

  - Increasing thunderstorm coverage late this evening and overnight
    across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Flooding threat
    will continue, in addition to severe weather concerns.

  - Widespread showers and storms Sunday through Sunday night and
    may persist through the day Monday. Severe weather potential
    remains. Flooding likely to be ongoing by Monday.

  - Widespread heavy rainfall footprint expected through Monday
    across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest/west central
    Arkansas. The holiday weekend will have many outdoor
    activities and the prolonged heavy rainfall potential may
    expose many to an increasing flood risk. Flood safety
    awareness remains a focus.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The next round of thunderstorms is beginning to develop as earlier
expected across portions of northwestern Oklahoma along the boundary
that extends southeastward from there, across central Oklahoma and
into southeastern Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms are developing
north of the boundary across northeastern Oklahoma as the low level
jet strengthens and increases lift across that region. Guidance
continues to indicate increasing thunderstorms this evening and
overnight across the area, as activity moves east and southeast from
the west, and activity continues to expand across northeastern
Oklahoma to the north of the boundary. Instability is moderate to
strong from north to south across the area, and deep layer shear is
in excess of 35 kts, thus severe weather including large hail and
damaging wind is possible just about anywhere in the CWA, and there
will be a low tornado threat (mainly) near the boundary. Heavy
rainfall is also expected, especially across northeastern Oklahoma
where multiple rounds of storms are most likely to occur through
Sunday morning. The Flash Flood Watch will continue as is overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Storms will likely be ongoing across the region Sunday morning,
especially in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A further
expansion in the coverage should occur during the afternoon and
early evening hours along the surface front expected to extend
west to east across the forecast area. While flooding, large
hail, and damaging wind potential should continue to be the main
severe weather concerns, given the presence of the front, a low
tornado threat will exist as well. An expansive complex of storms
is expected to develop to the west during the overnight and into
Monday morning as a stronger disturbance pushes eastward, with a
continued heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat, focused
on damaging wind. Additional development Monday afternoon and into
Monday night should focus across southeastern portions of the
forecast area, with the front located in the vicinity of the Red
River.

The pattern will remain active with an upper low located in the
Upper Midwest leading to continued periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the middle to latter part of next week. At
this point, the severe weather and heavy rain potential does not
look as great as what we are currently dealing with. Expect near
to below normal temperatures through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

Initially VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR by Sunday morning and
will likely remain mainly MVFR for the rest of the forecast
period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
overnight into Sunday morning, especially at the northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Another round of showers
and storms will likely occur late Sunday and Sunday night, but the
location and timing of this activity is unclear at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  63  74  60 /  80 100  80  70
FSM   83  66  77  65 /  80  90  90  80
MLC   87  65  79  62 /  50  90  90  80
BVO   76  59  71  56 /  70 100  80  70
FYV   77  61  74  60 /  80  90  90  70
BYV   76  57  67  60 /  70  90  90  80
MKO   81  64  74  61 /  80 100  90  70
MIO   76  60  70  60 /  70  90  90  70
F10   83  64  75  61 /  70 100  90  70
HHW   89  67  77  65 /  20  80  90  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH
MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...After 9 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 pm.

FLASH FLOOD and HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 pm.

DISCUSSION...
An increase in storm coverage is expected this evening across eastern
Oklahoma, expanding into northwest Arkansas during the late evening
hours. Strong instability and wind shear profiles remain across the
region, which will support an increasing severe weather risk this
evening and persisting through the overnight hours. Additionally, an
outflow boundary will remain across eastern Oklahoma this evening,
which could become a focus for a limited tornado threat. Otherwise,
the overall coverage of storms will steadily increase overnight with
a continued large hail and damaging wind threat. Rainfall accumulations
will continue to increase with another round of widespread and locally
heavy rains. Flooding potential will become more widespread and
potentially significant. Be prepared to take flood safety actions,
especially for any outdoor activities that extend into the overnight
hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain
Potential.
TUESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather may be ongoing early Sunday along with continued heavy
rains and flooding. A similar weather scenario is likely Sunday
afternoon through Monday with thunderstorms developing and expanding
in coverage with a risk of severe weather and additional heavy
rains. The coverage of thunderstorms is forecast to become less by
mid week, however, the weather pattern will remain unsettled and
daily thunderstorm chances continue.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
742 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     Tornado          3 ENE Marble            36.16N 93.54W
05/19/2025                   Carroll            AR   NWS Storm Survey

            A tornado snapped and uprooted numerous
            trees. Based on this damage, it was rated
            EF-1.

&&

EJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
748 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     Tornado          3 N Delmar              36.21N 93.35W
05/19/2025                   Carroll            AR   NWS Storm Survey

            A tornado snapped and uprooted numerous
            trees, and damaged outbuildings. Based on
            this damage, it was rated EF-1.

&&

EJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

OKZ054-250515-
Osage OK-
1132 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1132 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
north of Kaw Lake, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Foraker...                        Grainola...
Webb City...                      Apperson...
Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9631 3666 9691 3670 9693 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 239DEG 22KT 3686 9689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ054-250545-
Osage OK-
1212 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...

At 1212 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
east of Kaw City, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Foraker...                        Grainola...
Pearsonia...                      Webb City...
Shidler...                        Apperson...
Burbank...                        Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9663 3677 9636 3657 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704 3666 9706
      3669 9706 3670 9703 3669 9700 3668 9694
      3675 9689 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 256DEG 23KT 3678 9680

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

OKZ054-059-250615-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1242 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1242 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northeast of Grainola to 3 miles north of
Burbank to 5 miles northwest of Fairfax. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ralston...                        Foraker...
Grainola...                       Pearsonia...
Webb City...                      Shidler...
Apperson...                       Burbank...
Fairfax...                        Elgin...
Sooner Lake...                    Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9628 3670 9639 3644 9662 3645 9702
      3652 9701 3657 9689 3660 9692 3659 9700
      3669 9699 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 263DEG 21KT 3697 9661 3674 9671 3661 9679

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH