Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
255 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 17 2025

  - Severe thunderstorms likely today through early tonight. All
    severe hazards are possible including large to very large hail
    (2+ inches), tornadoes (potentially strong), and damaging
    wind gusts (70-80 mph).

  - Elevated flash flood potential for much of eastern Oklahoma
    and northwest Arkansas. Flood Watch remains in effect until 7
    AM tomorrow.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

  - Increasing thunderstorm chances by late Wednesday and through
    the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to impact the region
through this evening and into the early overnight hours, shifting
east with time. Several storms have tracked across E OK so far
this afternoon, well ahead of the dryline. Additional development
is likely along and ahead of the dryline over the coming hours.
While storms have struggled at times to take full advantage of
the environment early this afternoon, conditions remain favorable
for all severe hazards including large to very large hail (2+ inches),
tornadoes (potentially strong), and damaging wind gusts (70-80
mph). As convective inhibition continues to erode this afternoon,
expect storms will have an easier time utilizing the parameter
space. This is likely already occurring across south-central
Oklahoma with rapidly strengthening convection occurring within
the past hour. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings
today and tonight, as there is potential for high-end impacts for
all locations in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

With fairly widespread coverage expected, storms may congeal into
clusters or linear segments by this evening. This would tend to
favor damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard with time, along
with elevated potential for line-embedded tornadoes given strong
low level shear/ SRH. Storms and associated severe potential will
end from west to east tonight, with the highest concentration of
storms likely exiting our CWA by 3 AM. As the primary trough axis
and frontal boundary moves through mid- late overnight, additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms may redevelop across NE OK and
NW AR. Severe potential will be lower with this activity, but may
still see some severe hail or wind gusts with any stronger cells.

Thunderstorms are likely to produce torrential rainfall today and
tonight as PWATs remain near climatological maximums. With
repeated rounds of storms expected, rainfall totals between 1-4"
are expected, especially across SE OK and NW AR. This is
approaching or exceeding local flash flood guidance and elevated
flash flood potential is noted for much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include
Wagoner, Muskogee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Latimer, and Pushmataha
counties and remains in effect until 7 AM tomorrow for locations
most at risk of flash flooding. Additionally, area rivers will
experience rises, with a few locations expected to climb into
action or minor flood stage. Please remain alert for any Flash
Flood Warnings and do not attempt to drive through flooded
roadways.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Any ongoing showers or storms will move east of the FA by tomorrow
morning as high pressure fills in behind the front. A dry and
pleasant day is in store across the region with increasing
sunshine and highs in the 70s/ lower 80s. By late Wednesday/
Wednesday night, a frontal boundary sags into at least northern
portions of the FA, bringing low shower/ storm chances to the
area. Then, during the day Thursday, a subtle disturbance pushes
into the S Plains bringing additional precip chances across the FA.
Active weather is expected to continue into the weekend as SW
flow aloft sets up with multiple disturbances impacting our area.
While severe weather potential will increase during this period,
it is currently not expected to be as widespread or intense as
today's/ previous days. Heavy rainfall and flooding may become
more of a concern as well with multiple rounds of rain and storms.
Please continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days for
additional details and specifics. Temperatures generally remain
near seasonal averages through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR cigs continue to overspread most of the region early this
afternoon. There may be a few hours of VFR at a few TAF sites in
the next couple of hours, but confidence on coverage and timing
isn't too high at this time. Thunderstorms are currently flaring
up across the forecast area scattered to numerous storms will
prevail through this evening and possibly through the overnight
period. A mixture of VFR and MVFR should prevail, with periodic
IFR and LIFR possible in storms and heavy rainfall. Storms are
expected to shift east of all TAF sites after midnight, with MVFR
cigs lingering behind the precipitation through at least mid-
morning Tuesday. Ceilings should gradually lift and break apart by
late morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  77  54  83 /  70   0   0  10
FSM   67  80  56  87 /  90  10   0   0
MLC   63  79  56  86 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   56  76  49  80 /  80   0   0  10
FYV   61  76  52  83 / 100  20   0  10
BYV   62  75  53  79 /  90  20   0  10
MKO   62  75  54  82 /  90   0   0  10
MIO   60  73  50  76 /  90  20   0  10
F10   61  77  54  83 /  80   0   0   0
HHW   66  78  56  84 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-057-058-062-063-
     067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     South Coffeyville       36.99N 95.62W
05/19/2025                   Nowata             OK   Emergency Mngr

            Report of trees down in South Coffeyville.

&&

JDS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Bartlesville       36.73N 95.95W
05/19/2025                   Washington         OK   Public

&&

JDS

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