Alert archive / Oklahoma / River Flood Warnings in 2025

River Flood Warning 39, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 19, 2025LeFlore County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this river flood warning at May 19, 2025, 2:51 PM CDT for LeFlore County, Oklahoma. It took effect at May 20, 2025, 4:32 AM CDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 19, 2025, 2:51 PM CDT (19:51 UTC)
In effect from
May 20, 2025, 4:32 AM CDT
Expired
May 20, 2025, 10:55 PM CDT
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

County LeFlore County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Poteau River near Poteau (PTAO2).

Action stage
24 ft
Minor stage
24 ft
Moderate stage
26 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07249000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

909 
WGUS44 KTSA 191951
FLWTSA

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...The National Weather Service in Tulsa OK has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-200800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0039.250520T0932Z-250521T0549Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T0932Z.250520T1800Z.250520T2348Z.NO/
251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...From late tonight to early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, moderate valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 7.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tonight to a crest of 27.0 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
    evening. This crest is based on the forecast of heavy
    rainfall over the next 12 hours. Continue to closely monitor
    later updates to this river forecast.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

OKC079-200800-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.250520T1021Z-250522T1454Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T1021Z.250521T0600Z.250522T0854Z.NO/
251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE THURSDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...From late tonight to late Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in 
  the floodplain become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 16.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tonight to a crest of 38.0 feet late Tuesday night. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Thursday morning. This
    crest is based on the forecast of heavy rainfall over the
    next 12 hours. Continue to closely monitor later updates to
    this river forecast.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$
6 follow-up statements
580 
WGUS84 KTSA 200131
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-201345-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0039.250520T1127Z-250521T0636Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T1127Z.250520T1800Z.250521T0036Z.NO/
831 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning to early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, moderate valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Tuesday morning to a crest of 27.0 feet early Tuesday
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

OKC079-201345-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.250520T1448Z-250522T0852Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T1448Z.250521T0600Z.250522T0252Z.NO/
831 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning to early Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 35.0 feet, moderate flooding of agricultural lands 
  occur from Panama to Arkoma. Some local and county roads in the 
  floodplain become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 15.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Tuesday morning to a crest of 34.3 feet early Wednesday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage late Wednesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$

05
434 
WGUS84 KTSA 200716
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-201930-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.250520T0724Z-250523T0009Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T0724Z.250521T1200Z.250522T1809Z.NO/
216 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 39.0 feet, severe depths of flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur from Shady Point to Arkoma. Several roads 
  crossing the Poteau River are totally impassable.
  At 41.0 feet, very severe flooding occurs from near Poteau to 
  Arkoma. Up to 20,000 acres of farmland is flooded. Several county 
  roads crossing the Poteau River are totally impassable. This is a 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early this morning to a crest of 40.6 feet tomorrow morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$

OKC079-201930-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0039.250520T1233Z-250521T1553Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T1233Z.250520T1800Z.250521T0953Z.NO/
216 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TO LATE TOMORROW 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...From this morning to late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, severe valley flooding affects croplands 
  and county roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek. Old Highway 112 may become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 19.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this morning to a crest of 27.9 feet this afternoon. It will
    then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

Lacy
050 
WGUS84 KTSA 201331
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-210145-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250521T0826Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T0918Z.250520T1800Z.250521T0226Z.NO/
831 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, moderate valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 26.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.0
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late
    this evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

OKC079-210145-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-250522T1741Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T0734Z.250521T1200Z.250522T1141Z.NO/
831 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in 
  the floodplain become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 31.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 38.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$
043 
WGUS84 KTSA 202003
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-210800-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250521T0800Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T0918Z.250520T1630Z.250521T0200Z.NO/
303 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 26.0 feet, moderate valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 26.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has crested and is falling. The river is
    expected to fall below flood stage late this evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

OKC079-210815-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-250522T1410Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T0734Z.250521T1200Z.250522T0810Z.NO/
303 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in 
  the floodplain become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 34.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 38.0
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$
081 
WGUS84 KTSA 210120
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
820 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Panama affecting Le Flore County.

&&

OKC079-210830-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250521T0816Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T0918Z.250520T1630Z.250521T0216Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Poteau.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, minor valley flooding affects croplands 
  and farm roads from southeast of Poteau to the mouth of Brazil 
  Creek.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 24.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this evening and continue falling and remain below flood
    stage.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

OKC079-211330-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-250522T1410Z/
/PANO2.2.ER.250520T0734Z.250521T1200Z.250522T0810Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Poteau River near Panama.

* WHEN...Until late Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 37.0 feet, extensive flooding of crop and 
  pasturelands occur between Shady Point and Arkoma. Many roads in 
  the floodplain become impassable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 36.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 38.0
    feet Wednesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3540 9449 3540 9439 3523 9442 3504 9462
      3521 9470


$$

05
400 
WGUS84 KTSA 210355
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Poteau River near Poteau affecting Le Flore County.

OKC079-210500-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-250521T0355Z/
/PTAO2.2.ER.250520T0918Z.250520T1630Z.250521T0257Z.NO/
1055 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Poteau River near Poteau.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:45 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall and remain below
    flood stage.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9456 3506 9454 3495 9461 3495 9471
      3513 9468


$$

05

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 19, 1:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 17 2025
  • Highest confidence in widespread severe weather remains from today into tonight.
  • Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.
  • Increasing thunderstorm chances late in the work week.
Area forecast discussion, May 19, 1:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 17 2025

  - Highest confidence in widespread severe weather remains
    from today into tonight.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

  - Increasing thunderstorm chances late in the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

A few thunderstorms developed earlier this morning along a
northeast-to-southwest distinctive boundary that extended from
Nowata County to Creek/Okfuskee Counties in combination with warm
air advection taking place. Storms really failed to become
mature, likely due to weak forcing and a modest capping inversion
that has been in place. Since then, additional thunderstorms have
recently developed along/near the Red River in southern OK, which
actually might be the start of the active weather day for the
region.

As for the remainder of the day, widespread severe weather
remains on track for the entire forecast area (see previous
discussion below). Latest model guidance suggests whatever
capping inversion that is in place this morning will quickly erode
in the next hour or so. Latest water vapor imagery from GOES-19
shows an evident mid/upper level jet streak moving northeastward
over west TX. This jet streak is expected to help initiate
surface-based thunderstorms as it shifts north of the Red River
early this afternoon. Consensus in hi-res model data has widely
scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing across much of the
forecast area sometime between 12-2pm. These storms are expected
to quickly go strong to severe given ample low-level moisture,
instability, lift, and shear that will be in place. All severe
hazards will be possible, especially with discrete or semi-
discrete storms, including very large hail (2+ inches), damaging
wind gusts (75+ mph), and tornadoes (a few may be strong) through
the afternoon. A second round of severe thunderstorms is expected
to develop along a dryline that is currently in place across far
western OK. This dryline will gradually mix eastward through the
daytime today, possibly reaching as far east as the I-35 corridor
by the end of the short-term period. Storms that develop ahead of
the dryline will eventually move into eastern OK early this
evening.

Additionally, on top of the severe threat today, heavy rainfall
is anticipated to fall, especially under with mature
thunderstorms, and especially those that cluster and train.
Updated data indicate the highest flood threat today will occur
across far eastern OK and northwest AR mid-late afternoon and into
this evening. Thus, the Flood Watch has expanded to include
Haskell, Le Flore, and Sequoyah Counties in OK and Sebastian
County in AR. The QPF and Flood Watch will be reevaluated early
this afternoon and a further expansion may be needed.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today & Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Widespread severe weather looks likely today across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Several rounds of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the region starting as early as this
morning and last into the overnight hours tonight. a few scattered
thunderstorms will become possible by mid morning within a zone of
warm advection across northeast Oklahoma. While mostly elevated in
nature, these storms will pose a severe risk, primarily hail and
wind, as they shift eastward through the morning. The next round
of storms is forecast in the afternoon, with possibly high impact
hazards with any storms in this time frame. A relatively strong
mid level jet max is expected to round the base of the trough and
spread over the Southern Plains by midday today. In response a
surface cyclone is progged to deepen over north central Oklahoma
with dry line extending south near the I-35 corridor. A minimally
capped warm sector is expected to evolve during the morning hours
owing to rich boundary layer moisture and diurnal heating. Thus,
numerous thunderstorms are expected to fire along and east of the
dryline as early as in the noon-1PM timeframe near I-35 and
quickly move northeast into eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon.
An environment consisting of large instability and strong deep
layer shear will support all severe hazards, with potentially very
large hail and tornadoes (possibly strong) with any discrete or
semi discrete storms through the afternoon hours. One failure mode
could be that there are too many storms and interactions owing to
the weak cap, limiting the overall high end severe potential.
Still, all hazards will be in play with all storm modes today with
the environmental parameters in place, some remain weather aware
at all times today.

Another round of storms is expected to develop during the evening
and overnight hours along the advancing dryline/cold front. These
storms will continue to pose a severe threat, depending on the
recovery behind the afternoon storms. This activity is expected to
be more linear in nature, with damaging winds a primary threat
along with tornadic potential along the leading edge as low level
shear intensifies during the evening hours. Additionally, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will begin to become a threat heading
into the nighttime hours as multiple rounds of storms affect the
same areas. High moisture content noted by near record daily PWAT
values will lead to very high rain rates of 2-3 in/hr within the
convective cores. Some locations across NW AR and far NE OK have
already seen a swath of 2-5 inches of estimated rainfall in the
previous 24 hours and the ground is highly saturated. Therefore
have decided to issue a Flood Watch for these areas, with an
additional 2-4+ inches of rain possible by Tuesday morning.
Extension of the watch could be needed depending on morning
trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Any remaining storms should quickly exit the area early Tuesday
as the front and upper trough push through the region. Clearing
skies and cooler and drier air will filter into the area in the
wake of the exiting system. A pleasant late Spring days are in
store through the middle part of the week as surface high pressure
settles over the region. Lows in the 40s will be probable across
the northern part of the forecast area, with highs generally in
the 70s for most locations with some lower 80s near the Red River.
The surface ridge axis will shift east by Friday, allowing a
return of more southerly surface flow and slowly increasing
moisture as a warm front tries to develop and lift through the
Southern Plains. Several disturbances within the modest west to
northwest flow aloft are progged to move through the region over
the Memorial Day Holiday. Therefore, daily thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast through the latter half of the forecast
period. At this time, widespread severe weather does not look
likely, but several rounds of thunderstorms could lead to the
potential for locally heavy rainfall, along with some isolated
severe potential. Temperatures look to remain in check through the
period, near or below seasonal averages across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR cigs continue to overspread most of the region early this
afternoon. There may be a few hours of VFR at a few TAF sites in
the next couple of hours, but confidence on coverage and timing
isn't too high at this time. Thunderstorms are currently flaring
up across the forecast area scattered to numerous storms will
prevail through this evening and possibly through the overnight
period. A mixture of VFR and MVFR should prevail, with periodic
IFR and LIFR possible in storms and heavy rainfall. Storms are
expected to shift east of all TAF sites after midnight, with MVFR
cigs lingering behind the precipitation through at least mid-
morning Tuesday. Ceilings should gradually lift and break apart by
late morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  78  54 /  80  60   0   0
FSM   84  68  80  56 /  90  80  10   0
MLC   82  63  79  56 /  80  80   0   0
BVO   82  57  76  49 /  80  70   0   0
FYV   81  62  76  52 /  90  90  10   0
BYV   81  63  76  54 /  80  90  10   0
MKO   83  63  77  53 /  80  80   0   0
MIO   81  60  74  51 /  90  90  10   0
F10   83  60  80  54 /  80  60   0   0
HHW   83  67  79  56 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ057-058-062-063-068-
     069-072-074-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67
Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 1:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
116 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
116 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread severe weather is expected through tonight as multiple
rounds of thunderstorms impact the region. Large instability and
shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including potentially high impact severe hazards such as very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and numerous tornadoes.

Additionally, rich moisture content will lead to heavy rainfall
and flash flood potential as several rounds of thunderstorms
impact the same locations through tonight. Some areas have seen
recent rainfall of 2-5 inches already over the last two days with
additional heavy rainfall causing localized flash flooding
concerns across the region.

The final round of storms should begin to push through eastern
Oklahoma and into western Arkansas toward the end of the period as
a cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential
                     ...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of dry weather. More rounds of thunderstorms could also again
lead to heavy rainfall and flooding concerns for some locations.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready to
respond to impacts from severe weather through tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 19, 12:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

OKZ049-073>075-191830-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
1240 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA...
SOUTHERN HASKELL...LATIMER AND SOUTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM CDT...

At 1240 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
north of Stanley, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Red Oak...                        Gowen...
Sardis...                         Damon...
Higgins...                        Panola...
Tuskahoma...                      Yanush...
Clayton...                        Robbers Cave State Park...
Kinta...                          Wilburton...
Stanley...                        Lequire...
Lewisville...                     Quinton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 9558 3464 9565 3514 9535 3513 9493
      3503 9493 3451 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 221DEG 51KT 3466 9550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

69
Special weather statement, May 19, 1:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
123 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

OKZ055-060-061-067-191900-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Washington OK-Wagoner OK-
123 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
CDT...

At 123 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Broken Arrow, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Jenks Riverside Airport...
Sperry...                         Tulsa...
Claremore...                      Skiatook...
Turley...                         Tulsa International Airport...
Ramona...                         Vera...
Talala...                         Oologah...
Jenks...                          Catoosa...
Bixby...                          Owasso...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 219 and 248.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9548 3591 9576 3599 9603 3616 9601
      3617 9600 3623 9600 3660 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 209DEG 42KT 3606 9583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69
Local storm report, May 19, 1:55 PM CDT, 56 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
155 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     Hail             2 NE Oologah            36.47N 95.70W
05/19/2025  M0.75 Inch       Rogers             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&
Special weather statement, May 19, 1:57 PM CDT, 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
157 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

OKZ059-060-064-191930-
Tulsa OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
157 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CREEK...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM
CDT...

At 156 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated two strong thunderstorms near
Shamrock, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Westport...                       Sand Springs...
Keystone State Park...            Silver City...
Drumright...                      Shamrock...
Mannford...                       Terlton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9662 3628 9643 3627 9639 3623 9633
      3623 9626 3621 9624 3620 9624 3617 9627
      3616 9627 3616 9615 3612 9609 3580 9658
      3581 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 218DEG 53KT 3588 9658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 8:39 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAChoctaw, Pushmataha66 min
May 18, 9:25 PM CDTWind AdvisoryTSAChoctaw, Pushmataha3 hr
May 19, 2:11 AM CDTFlood WatchTSAAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 7 more24 hr
May 19, 8:13 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware59 hr
May 19, 8:13 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSAOttawa30 hr
May 19, 8:13 AM CDTRiver Flood AdvisoryTSACherokee6 hr
May 19, 8:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSANowata16 min
May 19, 8:26 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSALeFlore3 days
May 19, 11:48 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMcIntosh, Pittsburg57 min
May 19, 11:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSALatimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha55 min
May 19, 12:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg and 1 more56 min
May 19, 12:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSALatimer50 min
May 19, 1:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner50 min
May 19, 1:23 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSARogers, Tulsa37 min
May 19, 1:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Mayes, Nowata, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and 1 more47 min
May 19, 1:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa62 min
May 19, 1:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Nowata36 min
May 19, 1:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACreek33 min
May 19, 2:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Nowata47 min
May 19, 2:38 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSAAdair, Delaware30 hr
May 19, 2:38 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningTSACherokee60 hr
May 19, 2:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSACreek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee41 min
May 19, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee27 min
May 19, 3:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSACreek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more49 min
May 19, 3:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMcIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee43 min
May 19, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington43 min
May 19, 3:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkfuskee, Okmulgee33 min
May 19, 4:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Wagoner38 min
May 19, 4:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Creek, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Rogers and 3 more52 min
May 19, 4:27 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAOkfuskee, Okmulgee33 min
May 19, 4:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSACherokee, McIntosh, Mayes, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Wagoner44 min
May 19, 4:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSAMcIntosh28 min
May 19, 4:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Wagoner39 min
May 19, 4:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Mayes, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington50 min
May 19, 4:55 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware50 min
May 19, 4:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementTSACraig, Ottawa33 min
May 19, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes48 min
May 19, 5:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner53 min
May 19, 5:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAPittsburg46 min
May 19, 5:20 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAPittsburg25 min
May 19, 5:22 PM CDTTornado WarningTSADelaware24 min
May 19, 5:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner47 min
May 19, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair43 min
May 19, 5:39 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSALatimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha3 hr
May 19, 5:40 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedTSAPittsburg35 min
May 19, 5:42 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair27 min
May 19, 5:47 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAPittsburg28 min
May 19, 5:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner40 min
May 19, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAMuskogee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner46 min
May 19, 6:03 PM CDTTornado WarningTSADelaware, Mayes27 min
May 19, 6:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage, Pawnee52 min
May 19, 6:08 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatTSAHaskell, Latimer, Pittsburg52 min
May 19, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAHaskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg48 min
May 19, 6:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Wagoner42 min
May 19, 6:19 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryTSAHaskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg, Sequoyah3 hr
May 19, 6:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threatTSACherokee, Delaware, Mayes37 min
May 19, 6:24 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Muskogee, Sequoyah36 min
May 19, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee, Wagoner32 min
May 19, 6:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair, Cherokee, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Muskogee and 1 more42 min
May 19, 6:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAOsage39 min
May 19, 6:41 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAHaskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg25 min
May 19, 6:50 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee25 min
May 19, 6:52 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedTSAAdair23 min
May 19, 6:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware52 min
May 19, 6:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAAdair, Cherokee, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Sequoyah51 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Oklahoma, 2025Every river flood warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.