Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

  - A multi-day period of potential severe weather is in progress
    across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central
    Arkansas.

  - Highest confidence in high impact and widespread severe
    weather remains Monday into Monday night.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Elevated strong, sub-severe thunderstorms continue to move across
far northeast OK and far northwest AR late this morning. These
storms will likely persist through the rest of the morning and
possibly into the early afternoon hours as they continue to
gradually slide eastward with time. Dime to penny sized hail will
be the main threats with this activity, but a few gusts up to 40
mph cannot be ruled out.

Latest hi-res model guidance continues to suggest a complex of
thunderstorms will form south of the Red River in northeast TX, along
a gradient of high surface-based CAPE/surface warm front, and
will move northward across the Red River early this afternoon.
There is still a lot uncertainty on the evolution of these
storms/complex once/if they do push across the Red River.

As the warm front continues to lift northward this afternoon, another
round of thunderstorms is expected to develop along it across northeast
OK and northwest AR by early-mid afternoon, once the boundary
layer is able to destabilize due to diurnal heating and bulk
shear increases. These storms would pose a large hail and
damaging wind risk, as well as a tornado risk. However, forecast
soundings show speed shear is initially weak in the low-mid
levels. Nevertheless, speed shear will likely increase mid-late
afternoon and with suface-based CAPE increasing to around
1500-2000+ J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear >40 knots, and lapse rates 7.5+
C/km, strong to severe storms appear probable if they can get
organized before lifting northward into southeast KS and southwest
MO late in the afternoon or early in the evening. Will continue
to monitor conditions and trends.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The multi day severe threat will come to a climax on Monday as
the main upper trough moves out over the Southern Plains.
Confidence is highest on a more widespread severe event Monday
afternoon and evening, with the potential for more high impact
storms, including very large hail and tornadoes. A dryline will
once again sharpen across western/central Oklahoma by Monday
afternoon, likely pushing further east than previous days aided by
a deepening surface low over southern Kansas. A relatively strong
mid level jet streak will round the base of the trough and eject
out across the dryline from mid to late afternoon Monday.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is likely along
the dry line, with additional thunderstorm development possible
across the open warm sector owing to the synoptic lift
overspreading the region. Storms will move eastward into eastern
Oklahoma during the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards
possible. The severe threat will continue with multiple rounds of
storms possible into Monday night and Tuesday morning before a
cold front moves through the region, forcing the severe weather to
the east during the day Tuesday.

Cooler and drier conditions will spread into the region for the
middle part of the week in the wake of the passing cold
front/upper trough. Northwesterly flow aloft looks to continue
through the rest of the forecast period as mid level ridging
builds across the western CONUS. That should keep conditions
rather pleasant for this time of year. Highs are expected to be in
the 70s, with lows primarily in the 50s. Some locations across the
north will likely see some 40s for a couple of mornings as the
surface high settles over the region. Southerly winds and and
increasing low level moisture will return by late week into next
weekend as the surface high shifts east. This will allow low to
medium shower and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast
through next weekend as several disturbances move through the
northwest flow aloft.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Storms near Tulsa will extend east into NW AR this morning. Have
used tempos or prob30s to cover potential. Low clouds are expected
to overspread the region this morning, with MVFR cigs forecast to
gradually rise to low-end VFR by early afternoon. Storm coverage
this evening will not be great enough to warrant anything more
than a prob30 mention.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  67  81  63 /  50  60  60  60
FSM   86  68  85  68 /  40  50  60  80
MLC   84  69  81  65 /  30  40  70  60
BVO   79  64  82  58 /  60  60  60  70
FYV   82  65  82  63 /  60  60  70  80
BYV   80  65  83  65 /  60  70  60  80
MKO   81  66  81  63 /  50  50  70  70
MIO   78  65  81  63 /  60  70  70  80
F10   81  67  80  62 /  50  40  70  60
HHW   82  67  81  67 /  40  40  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
    ONSET...This Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will become possible again by this afternoon
across the region a a storm system begins to move out into the
Plains this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible along a dryline in western/central Oklahoma this
afternoon, with storms moving east northeast toward eastern
Oklahoma by this evening. Ample instability and shear present will
support supercells capable of all hazards with potentially high
impact hazards such as very large hail and tornadoes. Additional
severe thunderstorms could move out of north Texas later this
evening and overnight across portions of southeast Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe weather increases further on Monday.
Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire area as a storm
system approaches from the west. The degree of forecast
instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes
on both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is
expected to be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The
higher-end potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe
thunderstorm chances continue into early Tuesday as the system
exits the area to the east during the day.

Low to medium thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of
severe weather, are reintroduced late this week after a couple of
days of fair weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days
in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to
impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1206 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

ARZ010-OKZ069-181730-
Washington AR-Adair OK-
1206 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1206 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Bunch, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Adair State Park...               Strickler...
Maryetta...                       Clyde...
Rhea...                           Canehill...
Hogeye...                         Odell...
Stilwell...                       Bunch...
Summers...                        Morrow...
Lincoln...                        Prairie Grove...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 9420 3576 9441 3576 9449 3572 9449
      3564 9467 3564 9473 3573 9481 3577 9481
      3606 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 233DEG 36KT 3573 9469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     Hail             1 NW Bunch              35.69N 94.77W
05/18/2025  E0.88 Inch       Adair              OK   Public

&&