Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
234 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

  - A multi-day period of potential severe weather is in progress
    across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central
    Arkansas.

  - Highest confidence in high impact and widespread severe
    weather remains Monday into Monday night.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Current scattered thunderstorms ongoing from I-40 north will
continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours. At
least some low end severe threat will continue to be maintained
with the storms, mainly a hail/wind threat, owing to steep lapse
rates aloft over the region. Additional elevated thunderstorm
development will be possible through the early morning hours in
close proximity to the elevated frontal zone draped across
northeast Oklahoma as the low level jet continues with a broad
zone of warm advection through sunrise. This activity should begin
to dissipate/move off to the east by mid morning.

Attention will then turn to thunderstorm chances during the
afternoon and evening hours Sunday. Uncertainty is still high with
how widespread storm development will be over the region with at
least some mid level capping present and the lack of strong
synoptic support for much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Development this afternoon will likely be tied to the
dry line across western/central Oklahoma and along the warm front
over southern Kansas. A strong upper trough is progged to dig
into the Desert Southwest during the day today, with a strong mid
level jet rounding the base of the trough and ejecting out over
the Central Plains by mid to late afternoon. Much the synoptic
lift will be associated with this feature and confined to areas
north and west of our forecast area. Still, strong diurnal heating
along the dryline and south of the warm front, along with rich
low level moisture resurgence should be enough to force at least
some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon from near the triple point in south central Kansas and
south along the dry line into north central Oklahoma. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support rapidly intensifying supercells,
capable of all hazards where they develop. These storms would move
east northeastward into parts of northeast Oklahoma by early
evening Storm initiation gets more uncertain with southward extent
and would likely be tied to any mesoscale features/boundaries
left over from ongoing convection this morning. Any storms that
are able to form further south would also pose a severe risk, more
focused on hail and wind threats, with a lower tornado threat
south of I-40 through the evening. A cluster of storms could also
move into parts of southeast Oklahoma later in the
evening/overnight hours as storms move out of northern Texas
associated with a secondary jet streak.

Temperature wise, it will be another warm and muggy spring day
over much of the area with highs in generally in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The multi day severe threat will come to a climax on Monday as
the main upper trough moves out over the Southern Plains.
Confidence is highest on a more widespread severe event Monday
afternoon and evening, with the potential for more high impact
storms, including very large hail and tornadoes. A dryline will
once again sharpen across western/central Oklahoma by Monday
afternoon, likely pushing further east than previous days aided by
a deepening surface low over southern Kansas. A relatively strong
mid level jet streak will round the base of the trough and eject
out across the dryline from mid to late afternoon Monday.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is likely along
the dry line, with additional thunderstorm development possible
across the open warm sector owing to the synoptic lift
overspreading the region. Storms will move eastward into eastern
Oklahoma during the late afternoon/evening hours with all hazards
possible. The severe threat will continue with multiple rounds of
storms possible into Monday night and Tuesday morning before a
cold front moves through the region, forcing the severe weather to
the east during the day Tuesday.

Cooler and drier conditions will spread into the region for the
middle part of the week in the wake of the passing cold
front/upper trough. Northwesterly flow aloft looks to continue
through the rest of the forecast period as mid level ridging
builds across the western CONUS. That should keep conditions
rather pleasant for this time of year. Highs are expected to be in
the 70s, with lows primarily in the 50s. Some locations across the
north will likely see some 40s for a couple of mornings as the
surface high settles over the region. Southerly winds and and
increasing low level moisture will return by late week into next
weekend as the surface high shifts east. This will allow low to
medium shower and thunderstorm chances to return to the forecast
through next weekend as several disturbances move through the
northwest flow aloft.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Scattered storms over the region could impact the terminals, but
confidence isn't high enough to go other than prob30 for mention,
except at KBVO with storms approaching from the west and tempo
mention. Low level moisture return will result in the overspread
of MVFR cigs across E OK and low-end VFR cigs across W AR (with
possibly a brief MVFR cig) btwn 12 and 15Z, with cigs areawide
gradually becoming low-end VFR everywhere by 18Z. There is some
chance for storms btwn 00Z and 06Z tomorrow evening at all sites
per latest CAMs, so a prob30 mention was included in all TAFs.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  67  81  63 /  50  60  60  60
FSM   86  68  85  68 /  40  50  60  80
MLC   84  69  81  65 /  30  40  70  60
BVO   79  64  82  58 /  60  60  60  70
FYV   82  65  82  63 /  50  60  70  80
BYV   80  65  83  65 /  50  70  60  80
MKO   81  66  81  63 /  50  50  70  70
MIO   78  65  81  63 /  60  70  70  80
F10   81  67  80  62 /  50  40  70  60
HHW   82  67  81  67 /  40  40  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1031 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this evening
over central and northwestern Oklahoma, and are expected to affect
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas overnight.
Moderately strong instability combined with strong deep layer wind
shear will support the potential for some of these storms to produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe weather increases on Sunday and increases
further on Monday. Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire
area as a storm system approaches from the west. The degree of
forecast instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes on
both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is expected to
be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The higher-end
potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe thunderstorm chances
continue into early Tuesday as the system exits the area to the east
during the day.

Low thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of severe weather,
are reintroduced late this week after a couple of days of fair
weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days
in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to
impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
305 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SW Morris             35.58N 95.90W
05/18/2025  M60 MPH          Okmulgee           OK   Mesonet

&&

MDL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     Hail             Checotah                35.47N 95.52W
05/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       McIntosh           OK   Emergency Mngr

            55 mph winds also reported.

&&

MDL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

OKZ071-073>075-180900-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-McIntosh OK-
334 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HASKELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MCINTOSH...NORTHERN LATIMER AND NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

At 334 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
west of Enterprise, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Red Oak...                        Panola...
Whitefield...                     Mccurtain...
Blocker...                        Robbers Cave State Park...
Kinta...                          Mc Curtain...
Quinton...                        Featherston...
Stigler...                        Enterprise...
Lequire...                        Lewisville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 9565 3534 9554 3530 9535 3529 9534
      3530 9532 3529 9528 3526 9525 3528 9522
      3522 9491 3520 9491 3520 9493 3514 9493
      3494 9497 3494 9500 3489 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 289DEG 50KT 3524 9545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

69