Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

  - A multi-day period of potential severe weather is in progress
    across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central
    Arkansas.

  - Highest confidence in high impact and widespread severe
    weather remains Monday into Monday night.

  - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 917 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Latest surface analysis indicates the warm front extends across
southeastern Oklahoma, with moist and very unstable air mass in place
along and south of the boundary. Strong to severe convection
continues across portions of southeastern Oklahoma where instability
and wind shear are currently best colocated. Latest mesoanalyses
indicate elevated instability exists northward into southern Kansas,
with most unstable CAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg. Additional convection
has developed across central and northwestern Oklahoma. Latest CAMs
indicate this activity will become more organized next few hours and
affect northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas overnight.
This has been a fairly consistent signal in these models for several
hours. There will continue to be a risk of severe weather overnight
given the expected instability and wind shear over the area. Have
adjusted thunderstorm coverage upward overnight, especially
northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The severe weather threat will continue into the early part of the
upcoming work week, with potential for high impact weather both
Sunday and Monday. Much more pleasant conditions remain on deck by
the middle of the week.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday at
sunrise, focused in areas north of I-40, with potential for
additional development in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas continuing through the morning. At least isolated severe
storm potential will exist Sunday morning given the high
instability likely to be in place. Development on Sunday afternoon
and evening will likely be tied to the warm front near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border and the dryline across western Oklahoma,
spurred on by a weak disturbance moving northeastward through the
region. The highest tornado threat locally should be in areas
northwest of I-44 near the triple point. Questions remain
regarding the amount of thunderstorm coverage late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night with some capping evident on forecast
soundings.

Monday and into Monday night, confidence is highest in more
widespread development given the proximity of the upper level
system and upper level jet. Upper level diffluence across the
region will support potential for open warm sector development,
with additional development near the dryline in western Oklahoma.
All modes of severe weather should be expected, with the threats
continuing into early Tuesday morning. The cold front should begin
to catch up to the dryline Monday night and into Tuesday morning,
which should force any Tuesday severe weather threat into the
eastern portion of the forecast area and also earlier in the day.

Cooler and drier weather should arrive by Tuesday evening, with a
period of below normal temperatures looking likely. Low shower and
thunderstorm chances reenter the forecast late in the week in
association with disturbances in the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will approach KMLC the next two hours
with the potential for hail, lightning, heavy rain, strong winds,
some of these storms could be severe. These storms may move
towards KFSM the next few hours but will likely weaken as they do
so. Additional storms are expected to move through areas near and
north of I-40 in the late evening through the early overnight
hours. These storms will also be potentially severe. Then, for the
second half of the night scattered storms and rainfall will
continue in far northeast OK towards northwest AR. Yet another
round of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will occur
late Sunday afternoon.

Winds will generally be light at 5-15 kts with a few gusts to 20
kts out of the east or southeast through the period. However, much
stronger winds with erratic directions are expected near storms.
Ceilings will develop for eastern OK for a few hours late tonight
into Sunday morning, then probably rising just above 3 kft mid
morning. Local visibility reductions may occur in any
thunderstorms. Due to the repeated rounds of storms, each of which
affects the following, forecast confidence is lower than normal so
check back in for the latest updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  82  68  81 /  60  60  50  60
FSM   66  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  70
MLC   65  82  70  81 /  60  40  40  80
BVO   57  79  65  82 /  60  60  60  60
FYV   61  82  66  82 /  60  60  60  70
BYV   60  80  66  83 /  40  60  60  60
MKO   62  81  66  81 /  60  50  50  80
MIO   60  79  66  81 /  60  70  70  70
F10   62  81  68  80 /  60  50  40  70
HHW   67  82  68  81 /  60  30  30  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1031 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this evening
over central and northwestern Oklahoma, and are expected to affect
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas overnight.
Moderately strong instability combined with strong deep layer wind
shear will support the potential for some of these storms to produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The threat for severe weather increases on Sunday and increases
further on Monday. Unstable air is forecast to overspread the entire
area as a storm system approaches from the west. The degree of
forecast instability and the pattern of the winds aloft suggest the
potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes on
both Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, the greater risk is expected to
be more confined to parts of northeast Oklahoma. The higher-end
potential on Monday is forecast to be over most of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west-central Arkansas. Severe thunderstorm chances
continue into early Tuesday as the system exits the area to the east
during the day.

Low thunderstorm chances, including a limited risk of severe weather,
are reintroduced late this week after a couple of days of fair
weather.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management and response agencies should be ready for 3 days
in a row of severe weather operations, and be ready to respond to
impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

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