Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and storms through this evening.
  Heavy rainfall likely this afternoon with localized flooding
  possible especially in northeast and east-central Kansas.

- Some storms may be severe today with hail around 1" and wind
  gusts to 65 MPH, mainly in northeast and east-central Kansas
  in the afternoon.

- More showers and storms Thursday into Friday and again around
  Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Initial band of more robust convection on mid-level moistening and
upglide has exited to the east. Another round of more tame
convection was moving in with the upper wave still upstream and the
cold front through northwest Kansas at 07Z. Precipitation likely
will be at least scattered this morning but become more robust in
the midday to early evening as at least modest instability builds
along the front. The front is somewhat slower and this may bring a
slightly more intense convective scenario to the local area, though
the NAM and GFS seems too strong with MLCAPE values. Still expect
around 1500 J/kg with around 30 knots of deep layer shear ahead of
the front for mainly a wind and hail concern, though a more linear
storm mode with time could lead to brief spin-ups in southeastern
areas. PW values still stay around 2 inches with warm cloud depths
and storm motions not far from paralleling the front so some locally
heavy rainfall is likely in mainly eastern areas. HREF 6-hour QPFs
of 2"+ are rather limited in potential but the setup suggests this
could easily be too modest. The Flood Watch remains appropriate into
this evening.

A dry period should come tonight into Wednesday evening but more
shortwave energy comes in by Thursday afternoon. Deep moisture won't
be far away and PW values push back to around 1.5 inches. The
surface front should remain south but moisture advection/isentropic
lift should support some showers and storms into at least Thursday
evening. There will be training potential again but southern Kansas
into northern Oklahoma seems to be more likely for the heavier
precip. Could see a few stronger storms in southern areas with
MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg again but this could be overdone. The
next upper wave remains on track to come in around Saturday
night though details are murky.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Expect limiting conditions in periods of showers and
thunderstorms through at least 18Z at all sites. IFR event
temporary lower conditions in +TSRA quite possible with gusty
winds. Cold front moves through by 22Z with improving conditions
following shortly thereafter.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-040900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today into this
evening. Some of the storms may be severe, with the greatest
potential coming this afternoon in east-central Kansas. Hail
around an inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 65 MPH will be the
main severe weather threats. Some of the storms may also produce
heavy rainfall rates and impact the same location multiple times
that may result in flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for much
of northeast and east-central Kansas through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging
wind, tornadoes and flooding.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
617 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ054-031200-
Lyon-
617 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LYON COUNTY THROUGH 700 AM CDT...

At 616 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northwest of Strong City to 16 miles
west of Madison. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Olpe, Neosho Rapids, Reading, Allen, and Admire.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 9635 3872 9614 3855 9595 3833 9595
      3817 9625 3817 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1116Z 226DEG 38KT 3845 9659 3812 9644

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
733 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 AM     Rain             3 E Emporia             38.41N 96.13W
06/03/2025  M1.72 Inch       Lyon               KS   Broadcast Media

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
734 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 AM     Rain             4 W Emporia             38.40N 96.25W
06/03/2025  M2.60 Inch       Lyon               KS   Broadcast Media

&&

AJ