Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 430
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 6, 2025, 6:18 PM CDT for 19 counties in Alabama; Escambia County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 6, 2025, 6:18 PM CDT (23:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 6, 2025, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Autauga County, AL, Baldwin County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL
The radar
The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 380 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -48 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 703 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 274 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 316 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.1
The text
As transmitted.
979
ACUS11 KWNS 062319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062318
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-070115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025
Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062318Z - 070115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado
may persist through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence
of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain
organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to
generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be
undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for
organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is
supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near
Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while
an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile.
There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire
at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a
threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado.
Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term
is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more
organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch
issuance may become possible.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545
32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718
30188865
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 8:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colbert, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone and 3 more | 90 min |
| Apr 5, 8:30 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Fayette, Franklin, Jackson and 11 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 5, 11:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colbert, Fayette, Franklin, Jackson, Lamar, Lauderdale and 7 more | 90 min |
| Apr 6, 1:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blount, Cherokee, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, St. Clair | 54 min |
| Apr 6, 2:46 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 6, 3:27 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Greene, Hale, Jefferson and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 6, 5:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Sumter | 113 min |
| Apr 6, 7:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay and 7 more | 116 min |
| Apr 6, 9:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Calhoun and 32 more | 96 min |
| Apr 6, 10:01 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers and 27 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 6, 12:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Chambers, Coffee and 17 more | 97 min |
| Apr 6, 3:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Barbour, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw and 8 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2025Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.