Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Very active day expected once again today as we await the ejection
of the vigorous upper level trough out of the Intermountain West
and into the Southern Plains. It's this feature and the forcing
in advance of it, combined with a nearly stationary frontal
boundary across NE TX and SW AR that will combine with ample pre-
frontal instability to produce another volatile severe weather
day across much of the region.

The frontal boundary currently near a Jacksonville, to Longview,
Texas to near Camden, Arkansas has shown a tendency over the last
couple hours to move very slowly south and east, likely getting a
push from post-frontal convection. Progs are in good agreement
that this feature will likely stall and may return back north just
slightly but not to the extreme this boundary returned back
northward (north of even our far northwest zones) on Friday. This
does not mean that areas north of the boundary will be spared from
at least the possibility of large hail as convection moves our
way from the west but at this time, the greatest tornado potential
will be along and southeast of the boundary (the warm-sector)
which should reside near or just south and east of the I-30
Corridor as we go through the day. This matches up well with SPC's
Enhanced Convective Risk today across mainly East Central and
Deep East Texas as well as all of Northern Louisiana and South
Central Arkansas. Upstream convection is currently lined up west
of the I-35 Corridor across NC TX into Central OK and will rapidly
move eastward into our region through the day and may even slow
down across N LA/SC AR later this afternoon. As it does, any warm
sector convection, given the amount of low level directional and
deep layer shear, will result in embedded and/or discrete
supercells that will have the potential to produce tornadoes once
again like we saw on Friday but this time, further east across SC
AR and N LA as well as extreme EC and Deep East Texas. Lapse rates
will support large hail once again with bowing line segments
supporting a damaging wind theat. The severe weather threat should
rapidly decrease across our western half by early afternoon and
across our eastern half by this evening with the heavy rainfall
threat ending during the late evening hours as well across our
eastern most zones.

Speaking of the heavy rainfall threat, contemplated expanding the
current Flood Watch further south to encompass the I-20 Corridor
of N LA where 2-3 inch rainfall amounts will be possible later
today but given that this area has received virtually no rainfall
thus far, decided to keep the current configuration of the Flood
Watch in tact. Otherwise, areas that have been inundated with
rainfall over the last 24-48 hours which includes the Middle Red
River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR could see an additional 1-3
inches with isolated higher amounts which will only further
exacerbate an already dangerous and ongoing flooding situation
across these areas.

Much cooler weather will infiltrate the region in the wake of the
cold front but we may not be completely done with the rainfall as
models are continuing to hang on to some very light precipitation
across most of the region (especially northern areas) as the
upper trough axis very slowly moves into our region from the west
on Sunday. This precipitation will likely continue into Sunday
Night as well.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Held only slight chance pops across our eastern half Sunday Night
but feel like much of the forcing in association with the
remainder of the trough axis will be located far enough east not
to carry any small pop across our eastern zones into Monday. Kept
the region dry through the extended even though we should see
another frontal passage by sometime late next work week as an
upper level trough swings out of the Central Plains and into the
Ohio Valley. The big story in the wake of this current storm
system will be the return of cold temperatures with lows Sunday
Night in the 30s near but especially north and west of the I-30
Corridor and it would not be surprising to see temperatures near
freezing across our far northwest zones if we can get the skies to
clear. Colder temperatures may be felt across our region Monday
Night where patchy frost will be likely across at least our
northern half. Southerly winds return for Tue thru Thu ahead of
late next week's cold front which will result in a rapid return to
more April like temperatures.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Terminals will be mostly IFR conditions, with a few periods in
both MVFR and LIFR depending on the intensity of rainfall.
Fortunately, the line of storms has been moving eastward faster
than expected so far. This line will continue eastward and clear
all terminals of rain by the end of the TAF period. Persistant
moisture from the rainfall and the gusty southerly flow for the
past several days may present itself with some lingering mist
creating lower visibilities overnight into tomorrow morning.
Ceilings will also stay low through the period behind the rain.
But winds should shift northerly and begin to weaken behind the
rain as well. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and this evening
across East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  59  44  65 /  70  20  20   0
MLU  57  64  45  62 /  90  30  20   0
DEQ  44  54  35  64 /  70  40  20   0
TXK  50  56  41  65 /  70  30  20   0
ELD  49  58  40  63 /  90  40  20   0
TYR  46  54  40  64 /  30  20   0   0
GGG  47  55  40  64 /  30  20  10   0
LFK  49  58  43  64 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...57

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1108 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 S Texarkana           33.37N 94.01W
04/05/2025                   Miller             AR   Amateur Radio

            Picture of trees down on a house on Old
            Blackman Ferry Rd.

&&

AEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Plain Dealing           32.90N 93.70W
04/05/2025                   Bossier            LA   911 Call Center

            Tree downed in Plain Dealing.

&&

BB

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