Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Tornado Watch 113 has been issued through 9 PM tonight, taking in
a good majority of our CWA mostly in western and northern zones
while also adding a few more counties down across lower East TX
over the past hour following the initial watch issuance at 1 PM.

The current regional radar reflects why that decision was made as
thunderstorms have rapidly fired just west of our East TX counties
near Paris southward to Corsicana. These storms will continue to
move into an increasingly volatile environment very conducive for
additional strengthening with supercell structures already evident
at this early stage.

Farther east of the current severe convection, weak capping aloft
continues to inhibit additional development across our region attm
as indicated by our 18Z sounding. However, that is not likely to
last much longer as further cap erosion is expected mid to late
afternoon. Rapid destabilization is being aided by robust heating
at the sfc with decent breaks in the cloud cover east of the cold
front which remains just west of our region. The current batch of
severe and tornado warned storms are generally riding the axis of
instability along and just east of the boundary. Additional severe
storms are likely farther east over the next several hours within
our Tornado Watch area. Aside from the increasing concern of some
high-end and potentially long-track tornadoes, very large hail in
excess of 2 inches along with damaging wind gusts of 70 mph will
be possible with these supercell thunderstorms. This is especially
true within the Moderate Risk area covering much of NE TX, SE OK
and SW Arkansas.

The severe/tornado threat may extend even later into this evening
than the current 9 PM Tornado Watch expiration so cannot rule out
additional time extensions and/or new watch products altogether.
After midnight and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning,
we should finally see a downward trend in convection. However,
that will be short-lived as additional forcing aloft will quickly
fill the void across TX as the upper-level trough ejects into West
TX around or shortly after daybreak. The trough ejection will help
to propel the cold front into our region with strong to severe
convection expected to become more widespread across the entire
region through the day on Saturday. All modes will continue to be
in play throughout the duration of the event late Saturday before
gradually diminishing from west to east through Saturday evening
and overnight into early Sunday morning. This also includes the
threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially within the
current Flood Watch area which runs through early Sunday morning.

Beyond that, our attention will turn to hydrologic response as we
still anticipate some river flooding across many of our northern
river basins in SE OK, SW AR and NE TX. In fact, some moderate to
possibly major flooding could occur within some of these basins
where the heaviest rainfall is expected over the next 24-36 hours.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Even as the cold front pushes eastward toward the MS River by
sunrise Sunday morning, some lingering light convection will be
possible as the upper-level trough continues to lag behind the
front. However, this should eventually wrap up by the afternoon
with clouds lingering through the remainder of the day Sunday.
Post-frontal temperatures will drop off rapidly with afternoon
highs on Sunday generally ranging through the 50s to lower 60s.
In addition, expect breezy conditions with gusty NW winds in the
wake of the cold front. Suffice it say, this will be in stark
contrast to recent temperatures we have observed throughout this
week.

A dry and pleasant forecast will finally resume for next week,
albeit continued cool with below normal temperatures through at
least Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will range from the mid
30s to mid 40s from early to mid week while afternoon highs will
gradually moderate back into the 60s and lower 70s on Monday and
Tuesday. Beyond that, look for a warming trend to commence from
mid to late week with temperatures returning to near seasonal
averages with dry conditions expected through the remainder of
the week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Main hazard in the immediate short-term remains the threat of
ongoing tornadic supercell thunderstorms across the northern
airspace, with the immediate TSRA hazard approaching the KTXK
terminal over the next hour. This supercell has a history of
producing a tornado and is continuing to the NE, moving out of the
NETX airspace, into the SWAR airspace. Training TSRA hazards
meanwhile continue in a line from KTYR east to KTXK, and will
continue to so through the overnight period. Hi-res guidance
continues to support TSRA/SHRA through the TAF period, with a
general eastward progression through the period, moving through
ETX, SWAR the NWLA airspace vicinity through 06/00z. Hazards
include, but not limited to, the risk of tornadoes through the
afternoon period, strong wind gust, heavy rain, hail and frequent
lightning. Low cloud bases will prevail through the period as
BKN/OVC continues ahead of the boundary.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Spotter activation will be needed today and this evening across
East TX, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest AR, and Northwest LA for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  80  52  58 /  70 100  70  20
MLU  74  84  55  62 /  20  90 100  20
DEQ  56  64  43  53 / 100 100  80  30
TXK  65  74  49  56 /  90 100  70  20
ELD  69  80  49  57 /  60 100  90  30
TYR  60  69  46  54 /  90 100  40  10
GGG  64  74  47  54 /  80 100  60  10
LFK  70  79  49  57 /  50 100  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53

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