Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Very active day expected once again today as we await the ejection
of the vigorous upper level trough out of the Intermountain West
and into the Southern Plains. It's this feature and the forcing
in advance of it, combined with a nearly stationary frontal
boundary across NE TX and SW AR that will combine with ample pre-
frontal instability to produce another volatile severe weather
day across much of the region.

The frontal boundary currently near a Jacksonville, to Longview,
Texas to near Camden, Arkansas has shown a tendency over the last
couple hours to move very slowly south and east, likely getting a
push from post-frontal convection. Progs are in good agreement
that this feature will likely stall and may return back north just
slightly but not to the extreme this boundary returned back
northward (north of even our far northwest zones) on Friday. This
does not mean that areas north of the boundary will be spared from
at least the possibility of large hail as convection moves our
way from the west but at this time, the greatest tornado potential
will be along and southeast of the boundary (the warm-sector)
which should reside near or just south and east of the I-30
Corridor as we go through the day. This matches up well with SPC's
Enhanced Convective Risk today across mainly East Central and
Deep East Texas as well as all of Northern Louisiana and South
Central Arkansas. Upstream convection is currently lined up west
of the I-35 Corridor across NC TX into Central OK and will rapidly
move eastward into our region through the day and may even slow
down across N LA/SC AR later this afternoon. As it does, any warm
sector convection, given the amount of low level directional and
deep layer shear, will result in embedded and/or discrete
supercells that will have the potential to produce tornadoes once
again like we saw on Friday but this time, further east across SC
AR and N LA as well as extreme EC and Deep East Texas. Lapse rates
will support large hail once again with bowing line segments
supporting a damaging wind theat. The severe weather threat should
rapidly decrease across our western half by early afternoon and
across our eastern half by this evening with the heavy rainfall
threat ending during the late evening hours as well across our
eastern most zones.

Speaking of the heavy rainfall threat, contemplated expanding the
current Flood Watch further south to encompass the I-20 Corridor
of N LA where 2-3 inch rainfall amounts will be possible later
today but given that this area has received virtually no rainfall
thus far, decided to keep the current configuration of the Flood
Watch in tact. Otherwise, areas that have been inundated with
rainfall over the last 24-48 hours which includes the Middle Red
River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR could see an additional 1-3
inches with isolated higher amounts which will only further
exacerbate an already dangerous and ongoing flooding situation
across these areas.

Much cooler weather will infiltrate the region in the wake of the
cold front but we may not be completely done with the rainfall as
models are continuing to hang on to some very light precipitation
across most of the region (especially northern areas) as the
upper trough axis very slowly moves into our region from the west
on Sunday. This precipitation will likely continue into Sunday
Night as well.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Held only slight chance pops across our eastern half Sunday Night
but feel like much of the forcing in association with the
remainder of the trough axis will be located far enough east not
to carry any small pop across our eastern zones into Monday. Kept
the region dry through the extended even though we should see
another frontal passage by sometime late next work week as an
upper level trough swings out of the Central Plains and into the
Ohio Valley. The big story in the wake of this current storm
system will be the return of cold temperatures with lows Sunday
Night in the 30s near but especially north and west of the I-30
Corridor and it would not be surprising to see temperatures near
freezing across our far northwest zones if we can get the skies to
clear. Colder temperatures may be felt across our region Monday
Night where patchy frost will be likely across at least our
northern half. Southerly winds return for Tue thru Thu ahead of
late next week's cold front which will result in a rapid return to
more April like temperatures.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

For the 04/12z TAF update...Radar imagery this morning has calmed
down some, however, we are seeing more widespread light returns
showing up across other portions of the area. Nonetheless, this
TAF period is going to be one filled with widespread MVFR, IFR and
even LIFR flight conditions due to low CIGs and lower visibilities
thanks to an increase in showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day. Aside from this, gusty conditions will prevail for most
terminals throughout this TAF period. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Spotter activation will be needed today and this evening across
East TX, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest AR, and Northern LA for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  53  59  44 / 100  70  20  20
MLU  84  57  64  45 / 100  90  30  20
DEQ  63  44  54  35 / 100  70  40  20
TXK  69  50  56  41 / 100  70  30  20
ELD  77  49  58  40 / 100  90  40  20
TYR  65  46  54  40 / 100  30  20   0
GGG  71  47  55  40 / 100  30  20  10
LFK  78  49  58  43 / 100  40  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
836 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

ARZ070-LAZ001-TXZ112-126-138-150-151-051430-
Miller AR-Caddo LA-Panola TX-Harrison TX-Cass TX-Marion TX-Rusk TX-
836 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN CADDO PARISH...MARION...EASTERN CASS...HARRISON...
NORTHERN PANOLA AND NORTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM CDT...

At 836 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Queen City to near
Beckville. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deberry, Bivins, Nesbitt, Front, Elysian Fields, Ida, Fouke, Vivian,
Lodi, Darco, Red Hill, Leigh, Fairview, Domino, Carthage, Uncertain,
Smithland, Midyett, Tatum, and Atlanta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3331 9381 3215 9412 3215 9465 3322 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1336Z 274DEG 20KT 3321 9426 3222 9454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-TXZ097-112-051445-
Howard AR-Hempstead AR-Lafayette AR-Sevier AR-Little River AR-
Miller AR-Nevada AR-Cass TX-Bowie TX-
844 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LITTLE RIVER...
HEMPSTEAD...NORTHERN MILLER...EASTERN SEVIER...NORTH CENTRAL
LAFAYETTE...HOWARD...NEVADA...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN
BOWIE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 843 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Athens to 7 miles east of Lockesburg to
near Ogden to near Redwater. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bright Star, Bodcaw, McNab, Redwater, Red Lick, Tollette, Genoa,
Morris, Provo, Piney Grove, Ogden, Corinth, Blevins, Bellview,
Lockesburg, Mount Pleasant, Ben Lomond, Sutton, Oak Grove, and
Wilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 9394 3419 9392 3418 9382 3401 9382
      3401 9375 3395 9353 3396 9347 3396 9338
      3390 9330 3384 9329 3383 9323 3380 9318
      3382 9314 3378 9310 3374 9311 3333 9371
      3322 9432 3357 9420 3393 9417 3435 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 212DEG 54KT 3433 9413 3399 9406 3360 9411 3335
9421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1042 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Nash              33.48N 94.15W
04/05/2025                   Bowie              TX   County Official

            Several reports of damage in the area.
            Higher concentration around Arnold Ln near
            Red Lick.

&&

AEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1046 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Texarkana         33.43N 93.96W
04/05/2025                   Miller             AR   County Official

            Several reports of damage across the AR side
            of Texarkana. No specific area given by
            dispatcher.

&&

AEC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1051 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Garland            33.39N 93.67W
04/05/2025                   Lafayette          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Report of multiple power poles down on CR 5.

&&

AEC