River Flood Warning 37, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
202 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch continues through 7 AM Thursday with another round
  of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue during the day
  Thursday. Therefore, any lingering flood impacts may continue
  for areas receiving more heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show a large scale trough shifting into the
central and southern plains, and another shortwave trough
shifting southeast across Montana and northwest Wyoming.
Regional radar shows a thunderstorm complex over eastern
Oklahoma into Texas shifting east northeast, with the northern
edge of precipitation shifting into southwest Missouri. A
stationary boundary was located along the MO/AR border.
Temperatures were ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s with the
warmer conditions in areas across southern Missouri which have
broken out of the cloud cover.

Rest of this afternoon into tonight: The thunderstorm complex
should continue shifting east-northeast with the northern
portions of this pushing across mostly southern Missouri within
our CWA. Some instability has crept into far southern Missouri
and will need to monitor this area for potential strong to
severe wind gusts. Can't entirely rule out a brief spin-up
tornado given near the surface front. The better severe weather
chances will occur further south of the CWA within a higher area
of instability. CAMS shift the majority of this convection to
the east of the CWA by 04-06z, so most of the precipitation will
occur in the remainder of the afternoon and evening. During the
overnight hours, the southern/central plains shortwave should
shift into the area. Pops will continue, but should be lower
behind the MCS. We are expecting low stratus to build into the
area overnight tonight.

Thursday-Thursday night: The shortwave will continue to lift
northeast through the area while the northern stream system will
drop southeast into the mid and upper Mississippi valley
regions. Additional rain chances will continue through Thursday
night, however the risk for the heavy rain/flood potential
should come to an end by Thursday morning.

Will continue the flood watch through 7 AM Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

The upper trough will then begin to shift into the area from the
northwest on Friday into Friday night. This will keep at least
low pops in the forecast through Friday night. Differences are
showing up in how the trough is handled over the weekend. Some
of the models start to cut off the low east of the area and may
linger low precipitation chances over the area through the
weekend. Some of the models are pushing a more progressive
trough trough which would keep generally dry conditions in
through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. We
will likely keep in some low pops in at least our eastern CWA
through the weekend and diminish pops below 15% over the west.

We should get some upper level ridging in between two trough
axis early next week with a dry and slightly warmer
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

For the 18z TAFS, a thunderstorm complex was over eastern
Oklahoma and will continue to lift northeast and into southern
Missouri this afternoon and evening. Will likely see MVFR
within the convection. The convection should clear east of the
TAF sites by 02z and then stratus builds back into the area
overnight with MVFR and IFR conditions. Some of the winds within
the convection may gust up to 45 to 50 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
208 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
208 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal tornado risk.
  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

A thunderstorm complex will move into the area this afternoon and
evening, with a risk of heavy rainfall and potentially some
localized flooding. In addition, some of the stronger storms will
be capable of hail to the size of quarters, damaging wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph and a low end risk of a spin-up tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring
more rainfall and lightning risk to the region through Thursday
into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1044 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Strafford          37.25N 93.16W
04/29/2025                   Greene             MO   Public

            Delayed report. Branches down even some
            trees down. Only one critical damage spotted
            so far was one shed destroyed by fallen
            trees.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
121 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Aurora              36.96N 93.72W
04/29/2025                   Lawrence           MO   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1
            S Aurora for time. Facebook photo of
            significant roof damage to Aurora Church of
            Christ. Time based on radar.

&&

TEO