Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Scattered showers and storms again today, with the greatest
  chances in the western Piedmont

* Locally heavy rain possible, resulting in isolated flash flooding

Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals weak flow aloft, with NC
sandwiched between weak southwesterly flow to our west and light
northeasterly flow to our east. Convection from earlier this morning
has dissipated although it hasn't taken long for new showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Most of the new convective development is
on the periphery of where we had precip this morning, with areas
along and west of I-85 filling in as early as noon, while a few
storms have initiated across the southern Coastal Plain. While some
cu have developed along the US-1 corridor, storm development has
been slow thus far, which isn't overly surprising. Temperatures area-
wide are generally in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 70s.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, expect additional
shower/thunderstorm development, primarily across the western
Piedmont within an area of 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE and 1.8-1.9" PW's
in closest proximity to the Piedmont trough. Convection is also
likely to initiate across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in the
vicinity of where the morning round of showers dissipated (roughly
Hwy 24/27). The biggest forecast uncertainty is in between those two
areas, where the atmosphere was overturned earlier today but is
showing signs of recovery. The SPC mesoanalysis page suggests any
CIN from this morning has already eroded, but that may be missing
some details and may be an artifact of the 40km nature of the
mesoanalysis grid. One would expect showers and storms to already be
ongoing across the Triangle if CIN had indeed eroded, and that's
clearly not the case. Nonetheless, I'm going to maintain the highest
PoPs in the CWA in the western Piedmont, another swath of elevated
values across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, with some 30-40
percent values along US-1. It's hard to justify completely removing
precip chances across the Triangle given the potential for colliding
outflow boundaries and elevated PW's. 12Z HREF suggests a relative
minima in the center of the forecast area and our PoPs were tailored
to match its depiction. Showers may linger into the evening hours
before dissipating entirely before midnight.

Primary hazards from any storms today will once again be periods of
heavy rain and flooding, especially in the western Piedmont where
areal coverage will be the greatest. An occasional near-severe gust
is also possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated
with this afternoon's storms.

As for temps, looks for lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Slightly lower storm chances on Wednesday

* Still hot and humid

Areal coverage of showers and storms should be a bit less on
Wednesday as upper ridging strengthens across the area. This will
push the highest PW values into the western Piedmont, once again
making them the primary focal area for shower and thunderstorm
development with somewhat lesser coverage elsewhere. Sea breeze
initiated convection is possible across the southern Coastal Plain,
with the center part of the state potentially seeing fewer storms
than others. This areal coverage is supported by the 12Z HREF and
other hi-res guidance, and closely resembles the inherited forecast
as well as NBM.

Temperatures should be a bit warmer than those seen today, with
highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows once again falling
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Diurnal showers/storms possible each day through the extended
  period.

* Hot and humid conditions expected each day, with potentially
  dangerous heat this weekend.

Thursday and Friday, high pressure will move westward off the
Atlantic Ocean into the southeast United States. This should
somewhat limit the diurnally induced showers/storms over central
North Carolina, especially closer to the center of the high pressure
in the southeast portions of the CWA. Saturday should have
increasing diurnal rain chances as a shortwave trough looks like it
could reach the region from the north. Sunday through Tuesday should
return to riding over the region, however there does not appear to
be a large change in airmass so diurnal shower/storm chances remain
until at least mid-week.

Temperatures will be above normal for the extended period. Maximum
temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s each day of the long
term period, with the potential for temperatures in the upper 90s in
the warmest spots in the south Friday through Sunday. This will
combine with high humidity values to increase heat indices to
potentially dangerous levels. The maximum heat indices may be near
or above 100 degrees for much of central North Carolina for the
majority of the long term. Heat advisory apparent temperature
criteria (105 to 109 degrees) may be met this weekend for eastern
portions of central North Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Another round of afternoon and evening storms is expected this
afternoon and early evening, with the greatest coverage coverage
expected across the western Piedmont terminals(KINT and KGSO). Storm
activity should diminish after sunset.

Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for areas of low
stratus to develop between 06 to 12z, leading to a period of MVFR to
IFR restrictions. These restrictions should lift by mid to late
Wednesday morning(13 to 16z), returning conditions to VFR.

Shower and storm coverage is expected to be lower on Wednesday, with
the best chances focused along the inland-moving seabreeze, mainly
impacting the eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening convection, along with patchy late night and
early morning fog and stratus through the end of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ007>011-021>026-038>041-073>076-160915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected
again this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding is
possible. The areas most vulnerable are the Triad region east across
the northern Piedmont into portions of the Triangle Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-083>086-088-089-160915-
Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
303 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ007>011-152000-
Vance NC-Warren NC-Person NC-Halifax NC-Granville NC-
303 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PERSON...VANCE...WARREN...
NORTHERN GRANVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of training
thunderstorms along a line extending from Leasburg to near Roanoke
Rapids. Movement was north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph. Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Additionally, locally heavy rain is also
         occurring with these storms and may lead to localized
         flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Henderson, Oxford, Roxboro, Warrenton, Halifax,
Norlina, Littleton, Concord, and Weldon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7790 3651 7790 3648 7777 3648 7765
      3644 7762 3642 7757 3634 7759 3631 7757
      3624 7915 3654 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 199DEG 6KT 3638 7915 3644 7773

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ011-152015-
Halifax NC-
310 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Littleton, or 7 miles west of Roanoke Rapids, moving northeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Littleton, Weldon, South Weldon, Rosemary, Roanoke
Rapids Lake, and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7772 3648 7768 3648 7765
      3645 7763 3643 7759 3642 7759 3642 7755
      3640 7754 3639 7754 3629 7775 3636 7792
      3639 7791 3644 7792 3644 7791 3651 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 215DEG 5KT 3641 7779

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ007-022>025-152045-
Guilford NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-Person NC-Orange NC-
346 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALAMANCE...PERSON...
NORTHERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN GUILFORD AND NORTHWESTERN DURHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Lake Townsend east-northeast to
near Roxboro, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Burlington, Graham, Roxboro, Mebane, Elon, Rougemont,
McLeansville, Concord, and Gibsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These thunderstorms are producing an excessive amount of deadly
cloud to ground lightning. Seek shelter indoors and stay away from
windows. If you cannot seek shelter indoors, an enclosed vehicle can
provide safe shelter. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 7880 3604 7926 3615 7983 3625 7982
      3624 7915 3654 7914 3654 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 233DEG 10KT 3622 7936

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

10

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