Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Raleigh, NC

717 
WGUS72 KRAH 151428
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1028 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCC105-151438-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-250715T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee NC-
1028 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN LEE COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7916 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
      3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3554 7929
      3555 7928 3556 7929 3554 7932 3557 7934
      3558 7937 3565 7939 3567 7933 3565 7910
      3563 7911 3563 7912 3562 7914

$$

NCC037-151600-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-250715T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chatham NC-
1028 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL CHATHAM COUNTY...

At 1028 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported flooded roads in 
southern Chatham County. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. 
Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned 
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Goldston.

Portions of Henry Oldham Rd north of US 421 have been closed due to 
high water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7916 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
      3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3554 7929
      3555 7928 3556 7929 3554 7932 3557 7934
      3558 7937 3565 7939 3567 7933 3565 7910
      3563 7911 3563 7912 3562 7914

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Leins

529 
WGUS72 KRAH 151550
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1150 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCC037-151600-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-250715T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chatham NC-
1150 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL CHATHAM COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7916 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
      3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3554 7929
      3555 7928 3556 7929 3554 7932 3557 7934
      3558 7937 3565 7939 3567 7933 3565 7910
      3563 7911 3563 7912 3562 7914

$$

Leins

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Updated the forecast to beef POP significantly from Davidson to Wake
and Franklin Counties were moisture pooling was occurring on the
southern edge of the H925 to H850 front. PWs were in excess of
2 inches from near RDU into SE VA. There was also lingering
instability in this region with moisture convergence at the
surface due to previous southward moving outflows. CAMS
are finally picking up on some of the convection especially around
the Triangle, which should persist a few hours this morning during
the rush. Slow moving storms will pose an isolated flash flood
threat around portions of the Triangle.

Isolated flash flooding will be possible again this afternoon and
evening with the region in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) of
excessive rainfall.

Antecedent wet ground will result in easier and quicker flash flood
potential with the heavier downpours, especially over the western
and northern Piedmont.

The Triad area appears most vulnerable to potential isolated flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Even though all of our region
is in the marginal risk of excessive rainfall, the NW Piedmont has
the higher probabilities of additional thunderstorms today per most
guidance and the latest CAMS. This region is also the wettest with
the past few days bringing plenty of heavy rain events. Greensboro
was already approaching 8 inches of rain for the month and it is not
even half over yet. This is already double the monthly 30 year
average. In addition, Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop again this afternoon and linger well into the evening. The
focus will be on the western and northern Piedmont locations where
basin averages of around 1 inch can be expected QPF wise. However,
some locations will likely top 2-3 inches locally. This would
produce additional flash flooding. The heaviest rains are not
expected to be widespread, limiting the potential scope of the flash
flooding to mainly localized or urban areas. To the east and south,
widely scattered storms are expected with locally 1+ inch of rain.
The instability is expected to be less today than in previous days
limiting the severe damaging wind threat. However, an isolated
damaging wind gust with the stronger cores. Highs will generally be
87-92. Lows tonight should be 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north on Wednesday with the upper ridge building in the
southeast U.S. from off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the
convection to widely scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities
will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along
the Blue Ridge. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with partly to
mostly sunny afternoon skies (90-95). Lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

* Hot temperatures, probably a degree or three higher than NBM ones
  used to populate the current official forecast, will remain
  anomalously warm and well in the 70s each night and yield Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk through the forecast period.

* Only very localized outflow relief from the heat may briefly grow
  in coverage Sat, when diurnal convection may attain maximum
  coverage in cntl NC

A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the swrn N. Atlantic
to the Southeast through the weekend, with perhaps some minimally
decreasing heights across the srn Middle Atlantic Sat-Mon, when the
models hint that a weakness may develop between the center of that
ridge and another forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N.
Atlantic. Such a solution would cause mid-level flow to assume a
more wnwly component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCV into
at least the nrn half of NC by Sat.

At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its
wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and
also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may
briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC on Sat, as the
aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of
very weakly falling heights aloft.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to
suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain
forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, and related small outflows
through at least Fri - with probably only scattered coverage along
those features. Sat will offer the relative highest probability of
diurnal convection, when the aforementioned outflow-reinforced front
will probably make its closest approach. It will otherwise remain
hot and humid, with high temperatures generally a couple of
categories above average and low temperatures two to three
categories above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms may persist over portions of the region
through 12z-14z, before finally dying off. The RDU area will have
the higher chances of showers/storms. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions will give way to the development of IFR to LIFR stratus
at many locations. This stratus will lift out between 13z and 14z.
Expect another chance of showers/storms this afternoon and evening,
with the higher probabilities from the Triad to the Triangle between
18z and 05z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ007>011-021>026-038>041-073>076-160915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected
again this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding is
possible. The areas most vulnerable are the Triad region east across
the northern Piedmont into portions of the Triangle Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-083>086-088-089-160915-
Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
845 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     Flash Flood      3 W Jordan Lake         35.74N 79.09W
07/15/2025                   Chatham            NC   911 Call Center

            Mount Gilead Church Rd closed due to
            flooding between US-64 and Sugar Lake Rd.

&&

LH