Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Raleigh, NC

269 
WGUS72 KRAH 151155
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCC063-183-151205-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250715T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Durham NC-Wake NC-
755 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM AND WEST 
CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7917 3582 7913 3586 7901 3587 7891
      3584 7891 3579 7893 3568 7897 3567 7899
      3565 7911

$$

NCC037-151230-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250715T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chatham NC-
755 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY...

At 755 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Durham, Pittsboro, Seaforth Boat Dock, Crosswinds Boating Center, 
  Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Jordan Lake, Crosswinds Campground and 
  Fearrington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7917 3582 7913 3586 7901 3587 7891
      3584 7891 3579 7893 3568 7897 3567 7899
      3565 7911

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Leins

833 
WGUS52 KRAH 151219
FFWRAH
NCC037-151430-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250715T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
819 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1030 AM EDT.

* At 819 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of 
  rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Durham, Pittsboro, Seaforth Boat Dock, Crosswinds Boating Center, 
  Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Jordan Lake, Crosswinds Campground and 
  Fearrington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7917 3582 7913 3586 7901 3587 7891
      3584 7891 3579 7893 3568 7897 3567 7899
      3565 7911

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Leins

270 
WGUS72 KRAH 151424
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1024 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCC037-151434-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250715T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chatham NC-
1024 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7917 3582 7913 3586 7901 3587 7891
      3584 7891 3579 7893 3568 7897 3567 7899
      3565 7911

$$

Leins

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
605 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Updated the forecast to beef POP significantly from Davidson to Wake
and Franklin Counties were moisture pooling was occurring on the
southern edge of the H925 to H850 front. PWs were in excess of
2 inches from near RDU into SE VA. There was also lingering
instability in this region with moisture convergence at the
surface due to previous southward moving outflows. CAMS
are finally picking up on some of the convection especially around
the Triangle, which should persist a few hours this morning during
the rush. Slow moving storms will pose an isolated flash flood
threat around portions of the Triangle.

Isolated flash flooding will be possible again this afternoon and
evening with the region in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) of
excessive rainfall.

Antecedent wet ground will result in easier and quicker flash flood
potential with the heavier downpours, especially over the western
and northern Piedmont.

The Triad area appears most vulnerable to potential isolated flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Even though all of our region
is in the marginal risk of excessive rainfall, the NW Piedmont has
the higher probabilities of additional thunderstorms today per most
guidance and the latest CAMS. This region is also the wettest with
the past few days bringing plenty of heavy rain events. Greensboro
was already approaching 8 inches of rain for the month and it is not
even half over yet. This is already double the monthly 30 year
average. In addition, Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop again this afternoon and linger well into the evening. The
focus will be on the western and northern Piedmont locations where
basin averages of around 1 inch can be expected QPF wise. However,
some locations will likely top 2-3 inches locally. This would
produce additional flash flooding. The heaviest rains are not
expected to be widespread, limiting the potential scope of the flash
flooding to mainly localized or urban areas. To the east and south,
widely scattered storms are expected with locally 1+ inch of rain.
The instability is expected to be less today than in previous days
limiting the severe damaging wind threat. However, an isolated
damaging wind gust with the stronger cores. Highs will generally be
87-92. Lows tonight should be 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north on Wednesday with the upper ridge building in the
southeast U.S. from off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the
convection to widely scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities
will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along
the Blue Ridge. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with partly to
mostly sunny afternoon skies (90-95). Lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

* Hot temperatures, probably a degree or three higher than NBM ones
  used to populate the current official forecast, will remain
  anomalously warm and well in the 70s each night and yield Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk through the forecast period.

* Only very localized outflow relief from the heat may briefly grow
  in coverage Sat, when diurnal convection may attain maximum
  coverage in cntl NC

A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the swrn N. Atlantic
to the Southeast through the weekend, with perhaps some minimally
decreasing heights across the srn Middle Atlantic Sat-Mon, when the
models hint that a weakness may develop between the center of that
ridge and another forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N.
Atlantic. Such a solution would cause mid-level flow to assume a
more wnwly component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCV into
at least the nrn half of NC by Sat.

At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its
wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and
also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may
briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC on Sat, as the
aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of
very weakly falling heights aloft.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to
suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain
forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, and related small outflows
through at least Fri - with probably only scattered coverage along
those features. Sat will offer the relative highest probability of
diurnal convection, when the aforementioned outflow-reinforced front
will probably make its closest approach. It will otherwise remain
hot and humid, with high temperatures generally a couple of
categories above average and low temperatures two to three
categories above average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms may persist over portions of the region
through 09z-11z, before finally dying off. The GSO/INT areas and
possibly RDU will have the higher chances of showers/storms.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will give way to the development
of IFR to LIFR stratus at many locations. This stratus will lift out
between 12z and 14z. Expect another chance of showers/storms this
afternoon and evening, with the higher probabilities from the Triad
to the Triangle between 18z and 05z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett/CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

NCZ007>011-021>026-038>041-073>076-160915-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected
again this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding is
possible. The areas most vulnerable are the Triad region east across
the northern Piedmont into portions of the Triangle Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-083>086-088-089-160915-
Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
515 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The chance of widespread hazardous weather is low at this time.