Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken to a remnant low as it
drifts northeastward through central North Carolina this afternoon
through tonight. This low will exit to our northeast early Monday,
leaving behind a weak surface trough through central North Carolina
and above normal temperatures over our area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

* Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the northeast CWA
  through tonight.

* Risk of isolated weak tornadoes persists through the afternoon and
  early evening in the SE CWA.

The remnant low of what is now TD Chantal will continue to drive our
weather through tonight, as it tracks NNE through the forecast area.
The latest analysis shows the center near the SE edge of the CWA,
with the heavier rain having shifted to just N and NW of the center,
a trend which was first depicted on yesterday's CAMs. The model
forecast rainfall and probabilities, including HREF neighborhood
probs of 1" and 3" in 3 hrs, agrees well with radar trends,
including recent instantaneous rain rates and ARIs. These indicators
along with the deep tropical moisture in place, including high PWs
near 2.5" and a deep LCL-0C layer, support maintaining the Flood
Watch, although we may be able to clear out the far SE (Coastal
Plain counties) by this evening. The fact that the low is moving is
good news, although training and pivoting rainbands and heavy
embedded deeper convection will still focus heavier totals in spots,
leading to isolated pockets and bands of torrential flooding rain.
Widespread 1-4" remains possible, with isolated 4-6", values we've
already seen in the last 6 hours near the Hoke/Scotland county line
according to MRMS data. The higher HREF NPs of higher amounts favor
the existing heavy rain area translating northward through the
western and central CWA, correlating well with the watch area.

The chance for quick spinups of weak tropical tornadoes persists as
well for the next several hours. Current 0-1 km shear and SRH are
maximized W-E through the central of the CWA, and where this area
overlaps with greater SBCAPE (~1500-2500 J/kg over the NE Piedmont
and N/C Coastal Plain) and CAPE advection will present the most
likely places for such spinups, particularly associated with
deepening updrafts within these tropical rainbands.

Will maintain high chance pops, likely to categorical, into the
evening, with a SW-to-NE downturn in pops later in the evening and
overnight, in line with the consensus of recent guidance. The low is
expected to shift just NE of the CWA near sunrise, so this area will
be the last to see lower pops. Considerable cloudiness will hold as
well, with areas of stratus likely. Lows from 69 to 75. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Chantal's remnant low will continue to pull away from the NE CWA Mon
morning, so we may still see morning showers in the NE CWA where
high PWs will linger along with weak low level mass convergence. A
weak trailing trough is expected to extend through the heart of the
CWA through Mon night, with high dewpoints in the 70s lingering
along and E of the trough. With low to mid level flow from the W and
WNW, albeit light, to the west of the trough, the far W Piedmont may
mix out enough to drop surface dewpoints down into the upper 60s and
limit SBCAPE a bit, so despite what should be good heating (after
the morning stratus burns off), the lowest pops should be in our far
W. In the E, within higher PW and higher surface dewpoints, isolated
to scattered storms remain possible in the afternoon. Recent CAM
runs are less enthusiastic, with scant coverage, due perhaps in part
to large-scale post-TC subsidence. Will hold onto scattered showers
and storms in the afternoon into early evening here, but there is a
chance for lesser coverage in later forecasts. Expect highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1233 PM Sunday...

Expect a return to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday after a surface trough sets up across the central portion of
North Carolina. Tuesday is also expected to have the least cloud
cover of any day this week, which will help it to be the warmest day
of the week - widespread low to mid 90s are in the forecast for
temperatures and it is the primary day that may reach heat advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. The entire forecast area is under a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday,
primarily due to the inverted-V soundings which could mix stronger
wind down to the surface. The storms will have plenty of instability
to work with, although deep level shear will be weak and will have a
harder time organizing thunderstorms.

As an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the United
States for the second half of the week, this will increase the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. This should result in a slight reduction of temperatures -
although most places will still reach the low 90s on Wednesday and
highs in the upper 80s will be more typical on Thursday and Friday
with the increased cloud cover. Once the trough axis moves farther
east and gets closer to the Atlantic coastline over the weekend,
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease somewhat,
returning more to scattered showers/storms each afternoon, with a
slight increase in highs back into the low 90s. While some upper 60s
are possible for overnight lows, most locations will not fall out of
the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Adverse aviation conditions will dominate at all terminals across
central NC through much of tonight, with SW-to-NE improvement Mon
morning. What is now TD Chantal centered just S of LBT will continue
to track slowly to the NNE and NE through central NC through
tonight, while continuing to weaken to a remnant low. Numerous to
widespread showers, and isolated storms, will bring MVFR to IFR
conditions (both cigs and vsbys) as the storm center tracks through,
with the IFR conditions most likely where the rain is heaviest. Wind
concerns are now lower as the storm weakens, although sporadic
surface gusts up to 15-20 kts are possible anywhere, with isolated
up to 20-35 kts in and near the heavier showers and isolated storms,
mostly this afternoon through early evening. Once the low center
tracks NE of central NC early Mon morning, leaving behind a weak
trough down through the area, cigs and vsbys will quickly trend to
VFR, with just mid and high clouds over the area and light surface
winds through the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, a few showers and storms are possible with
heating Mon from mid afternoon to early evening, mainly at RWI/FAY.
Additional rounds of scattered storms are expected each afternoon
through mid evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our
west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are
possible each day Wed-Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089-070900-
Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the potential for locally heavy rain, an isolated,
brief tornado or two is also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a
very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100
to 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007-008-024-025-040-041-073>076-083-084-070900-
Person-Granville-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-
Lee-Anson-Richmond-
454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a
very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100
to 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>023-038-039-070900-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-
454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ009>011-026>028-043-070900-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of locally heavy rain are possible later today and tonight
which could result in localized flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a
very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100
to 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
206 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Bowmore            34.95N 79.33W
07/06/2025                   Hoke               NC   911 Call Center

            Norton Road flooded and closed due to flood
            waters.

&&

np

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
242 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Aberdeen          35.15N 79.42W
07/06/2025                   Moore              NC   Public

            Received a public report with photo which
            shows impassable depth and rapidly-flowing
            water covering US 15-501 in Southern Pines.

&&

np

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Tornado          Raleigh Executive Jetpo 35.58N 79.10W
07/06/2025                   Lee                NC   Other Federal

            KTTA sustained damage to a couple of hangars
            and aircrafts; and runway and taxiways were
            closed to remove debris. KRAX confirmed TDS.

&&

MWS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
428 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Pittsboro         35.73N 79.18W
07/06/2025                   Chatham            NC   911 Call Center

            Oakwood Drive flooded.

&&

np

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
547 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

NCZ007-008-022>025-039-040-075-076-062245-
Guilford NC-Lee NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-
Person NC-Orange NC-Granville NC-Moore NC-
547 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALAMANCE...NORTH CENTRAL MOORE...
SOUTHERN PERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHWESTERN GRANVILLE...EASTERN
RANDOLPH...EASTERN GUILFORD...SOUTHWESTERN LEE...NORTHERN DURHAM AND
WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a band extending from near Butner to near Mebane to 7 miles
southeast of Graham to 7 miles northeast of Siler City to Goldston.
Movement was northwest at 20 mph. This band could produce tornadoes.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Burlington, Graham, Roxboro, Hillsborough, Siler City,
Mebane, Butner, Goldston, and McLeansville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Continued heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Doppler radar has indicated areas of weak rotation with this storm.
If the storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may
need to be issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 7898 3624 7879 3608 7872 3607 7875
      3603 7875 3603 7872 3601 7870 3602 7917
      3591 7923 3572 7926 3536 7926 3554 7967
      3610 7970 3625 7968 3624 7915 3639 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 138DEG 18KT 3608 7881 3609 7923 3597 7933 3579
7935 3559 7935

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
627 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     Tornado          4 NW Moncure            35.66N 79.13W
07/06/2025                   Chatham            NC   Broadcast Media

            WNCN meteorologist observed multiple trees
            down, including at least one large pine
            snapped, in the 4000 block of Moncure
            Pittsboro Rd.

&&

MWS