Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2025
Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 6, 2025, 3:50 PM EDT for 6 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 11 hr. 18 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2025, 3:50 PM EDT (19:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 7, 2025, 3:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Damage threat
- Considerable
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Alamance County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Durham County, NC, Lee County, NC, Orange County, NC, Randolph County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 4:19 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Nnw Pittsboro, NC | Oakwood Drive flooded. |
| Jul 6, 6:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 Ese Fearrington, NC | *** 1 FATAL *** Two boaters launched a canoe from Marthas Chapel Road around 5pm on Sunday, one boater was found Tuesday morning. |
| Jul 6, 6:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 Ese Fearrington, NC | *** 2 FATAL *** Corrects previous flash flood report from 4 ESE Fearrington. Two boaters launched a canoe from Marthas Chapel Road around 5pm on Sunday, one body was found Tuesday morning, the other Wednesday morning. Exact time has been estimated. |
| Jul 6, 7:30 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 Wnw Goldston, NC | Both lanes of Highway 902 just west of Chatham Central High School have been washed out. Nearly 20 feet of roadway have been washed away. |
| Jul 6, 7:52 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | Siler City, NC | Numerous instances of flooded roads, stalled cars, and water rescues across the county, including one at the location noted in this report. |
| Jul 6, 8:25 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 S Haw River, NC | The left lane is closed from Exit 150 (Jimmie Kerr Rd) to Exit 153 (Trollingwood-Hawfields Rd). 1 of 4 lanes closed. |
| Jul 6, 9:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Chapel Hill, NC | Stranded/submerged vehicles, apartments flooded, and law enforcement performed multiple water rescues at Camelot Village earlier. |
| Jul 6, 9:00 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Chapel Hill, NC | Vehicles submerged and apartments flooded with law enforcement performing multiple swift water boat rescues earlier. |
| Jul 6, 9:40 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 E Chapel Hill, NC | Mail trucks submerged in Chapel Hill near S Estes drive/Willow Drive. |
| Jul 6, 9:40 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Ene Chapel Hill, NC | Houses flooded with stranded vehicles reported near Rt 501/15 and S. Elliot Road. |
| Jul 6, 10:28 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 Nne Chapel Hill, NC | road closed due to flooding. |
| Jul 6, 10:30 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Ese Mebane, NC | Flooding reported along portions of I-85/40. Eastbound i-40/85 was closed near Buckhorn Road. |
| Jul 6, 10:38 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Ese Mebane, NC | The road is closed due to flooding at Exit 157 (Buckhorn Road). Near Hillsborough / Mile Marker 157 to 0 Both Directions. |
| Jul 6, 10:45 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 6 Wnw Bynum, NC | NC-87 impassable where it crosses Terrel Creek, near Chicken Bridge Road, and where it crosses Long Branch, near Castle Rock Farm road. |
| Jul 6, 11:31 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Ene Fearrington, NC | *** 1 FATAL *** 1 person died when their car traveling on Farrington Point Road entered floodwaters and was swept away. |
| Jul 6, 11:35 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 S Mebane, NC | *** 1 FATAL *** DELAYED REPORT: Deputies responded to a report of a missing person last seen driving near Jones Rd and Calloway Dr. The body of a man was later recovered in a creek downstream. |
| Jul 7, 1:00 AM EDT | RAIN 7.54 | 4 N Carrboro, NC | Mesonet station DKCN7 DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W. |
| Jul 7, 2:54 AM EDT | RAIN 4.62 | 2 Ne Alamance, NC | ASOS station KBUY Burlington. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 17 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 29 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 691 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
416
WGUS52 KRAH 061950
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-063-105-135-151-062215-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0034.250706T1950Z-250706T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Durham County in central North Carolina...
Northern Lee County in central North Carolina...
Southern Orange County in central North Carolina...
Eastern Randolph County in central North Carolina...
* Until 615 PM EDT.
* At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Siler City, North Carolina Zoo, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston,
Seagrove, Elon, Gibsonville, Liberty, Haw River, Ramseur,
Broadway, Franklinville and Swepsonville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953 3593 7881
3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900 3558 7892
3542 7907 3556 7920 3553 7927 3555 7929
3552 7933 3551 7984
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
107 follow-up statements
154
WGUS52 KRAH 062125
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-063-105-135-151-070115-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Durham County in central North Carolina...
Northern Lee County in central North Carolina...
Southern Orange County in central North Carolina...
Eastern Randolph County in central North Carolina...
* Until 915 PM EDT.
* At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the
warned area. Up to 5 inches of rain have fallen, with the highest
totals across western Chatham county. Additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches are possible, especially across Alamance and
western Chatham counties. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to
begin shortly.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Siler City, North Carolina Zoo, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston,
Seagrove, Elon, Gibsonville, Liberty, Haw River, Ramseur,
Broadway, Franklinville and Swepsonville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953 3593 7881
3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900 3558 7892
3542 7907 3556 7920 3553 7927 3555 7929
3552 7933 3551 7984
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
10494
WGUS72 KRAH 070001
FFSRAH
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
NCC105-070011-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee NC-
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN LEE COUNTY...
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT Monday for a
portion of central North Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3570 7975 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953
3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900
3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3556 7929
3554 7932 3553 7931 3552 7934 3552 7957
$$
NCC001-037-063-135-151-070115-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Orange NC-Randolph NC-
801 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALAMANCE, CHATHAM, SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM, SOUTHERN ORANGE
AND EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES...
At 801 PM EDT, emergency management reported flooding due to
thunderstorms producing heavy rain in numerous locations across the
warned area. Between 2 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Siler City, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston, Elon, Gibsonville,
Liberty, Haw River, Ramseur, Franklinville, Swepsonville,
Alamance, Staley and Sutphin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3570 7975 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953
3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900
3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3556 7929
3554 7932 3553 7931 3552 7934 3552 7957
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
10878
WGUS52 KRAH 070011
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-063-135-151-070515-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
811 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Durham County in central North Carolina...
Southern Orange County in central North Carolina...
Eastern Randolph County in central North Carolina...
* Until 115 AM EDT.
* At 811 PM EDT, emergency management reported flooding due to
thunderstorms producing heavy rain in numerous locations across
the warned area, including Pittsboro, Chapel Hill, and Mebane.
Between 2 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash
flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Siler City, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston, Elon, Gibsonville,
Liberty, Haw River, Ramseur, Franklinville, Swepsonville,
Alamance, Staley and Sutphin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3570 7975 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953
3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900
3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3556 7929
3554 7932 3553 7931 3552 7934 3552 7957
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
10184
WGUS52 KRAH 070232
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-063-135-151-070600-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1032 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Durham County in central North Carolina...
Southern Orange County in central North Carolina...
Eastern Randolph County in central North Carolina...
* Until 200 AM EDT.
* At 1032 PM EDT, Widespread flash flooding is ongoing across much
of Orange, Alamance and Chatham Counties this evening as rainfall
amounts of 4 to 7 inches have been observed in the area with
localized amounts in excess of 8 inches. Numerous water rescues
have occurred this evening and some homes flooded. Please do not
travel unless absolutely necessary. It is very difficult to see
the dangers of flooding at night.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro, Siler
City, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston, Elon, Gibsonville, Liberty, Haw
River, Ramseur, Franklinville, Swepsonville, Alamance, Staley and
Sutphin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3570 7975 3590 7965 3590 7954 3624 7953
3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891 3561 7900
3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920 3555 7922
3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927 3556 7929
3554 7932 3553 7931 3552 7934 3552 7957
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
Blaes408
WGUS72 KRAH 070409
FFSRAH
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
NCC151-070419-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Randolph NC-
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...
Heavy rain that produced flooding earlier has ended and rivers and
creeks are receding. The threat of widespread flooding has ended.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7953 3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891
3561 7900 3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920
3555 7922 3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927
3556 7929 3554 7932 3553 7932 3552 7934
3552 7954 3568 7953 3590 7954
$$
NCC001-037-063-135-070600-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Orange NC-
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ALAMANCE, CHATHAM, SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTIES...
At 1209 AM EDT, Observers and emergency management reported heavy
rain across the warned area with between 3 and 8 inches of rain
measured. Flash flooding has been occurring and continues.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
This includes the following flood prone locations...
Morgan Creek at Mason Farm Rd, Booker Creek and Willow Dr, Fordham
Rams Place and Ephesus Church Rd, Fordham Bypass Lane by S. Elliot
Rd., University between Durham-Chapel Hill Blvd and Forest Hills and
Stagecoach Rd.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7953 3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891
3561 7900 3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920
3555 7922 3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927
3556 7929 3554 7932 3553 7932 3552 7934
3552 7954 3568 7953 3590 7954
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
Blaes133
WGUS52 KRAH 070537
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-063-135-070700-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
137 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Alamance County in central North Carolina...
Chatham County in central North Carolina...
Southwestern Durham County in central North Carolina...
Southern Orange County in central North Carolina...
* Until 300 AM EDT.
* At 137 AM EDT, emergency management officials continue to report
flooding across the area. A few water rescues were still ongoing
over the past hour. Between 3 and 9 inches of rain have fallen
across the area and any lingering rain should end by 200 am. While
the rain has largely ended, creeks and streams will remain high
overnight and lingering flood waters will be slow to recede. Use
caution when traveling tonight as it is difficult to identify the
dangers of flooding at night.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.
SOURCE...Emergency management reported.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro,
Siler City, Carrboro, Mebane, Haw River, Swepsonville, Bynum and
Snow Camp.
This includes the following flood prone locations...
Morgan Creek at Mason Farm Rd, Booker Creek and Willow Dr, Fordham
Rams Place and Ephesus Church Rd, Fordham Bypass Lane by S. Elliot
Rd., University between Durham-Chapel Hill Blvd and Forest Hills and
Stagecoach Rd.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7953 3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891
3561 7900 3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920
3555 7922 3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927
3556 7929 3554 7932 3553 7932 3552 7934
3552 7954 3568 7953 3590 7954
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
$$
Blaes139
WGUS72 KRAH 070702
FFSRAH
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
302 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
NCC001-037-063-135-070712-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-250707T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Orange NC-
302 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ALAMANCE, CHATHAM,
SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM AND SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTIES...
The threat for flash flooding has ended. While the rain has ended,
creeks and streams will remain high overnight into Monday morning
and lingering flood waters will be slow to recede. Use caution when
traveling early this morning as it is difficult to identify the
dangers of flooding at night. Please continue to heed remaining road
closures.
&&
LAT...LON 3624 7953 3593 7881 3587 7883 3587 7891
3561 7900 3563 7914 3558 7920 3556 7920
3555 7922 3557 7922 3557 7924 3553 7927
3556 7929 3554 7932 3553 7932 3552 7934
3552 7954 3568 7953 3590 7954
$$
ASWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 6, 2:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 2:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken to a remnant low as it drifts northeastward through central North Carolina this afternoon through tonight. This low will exit to our northeast early Monday, leaving behind a weak surface trough through central North Carolina and above normal temperatures over our area through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... * Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the northeast CWA through tonight. * Risk of isolated weak tornadoes persists through the afternoon and early evening in the SE CWA. The remnant low of what is now TD Chantal will continue to drive our weather through tonight, as it tracks NNE through the forecast area. The latest analysis shows the center near the SE edge of the CWA, with the heavier rain having shifted to just N and NW of the center, a trend which was first depicted on yesterday's CAMs. The model forecast rainfall and probabilities, including HREF neighborhood probs of 1" and 3" in 3 hrs, agrees well with radar trends, including recent instantaneous rain rates and ARIs. These indicators along with the deep tropical moisture in place, including high PWs near 2.5" and a deep LCL-0C layer, support maintaining the Flood Watch, although we may be able to clear out the far SE (Coastal Plain counties) by this evening. The fact that the low is moving is good news, although training and pivoting rainbands and heavy embedded deeper convection will still focus heavier totals in spots, leading to isolated pockets and bands of torrential flooding rain. Widespread 1-4" remains possible, with isolated 4-6", values we've already seen in the last 6 hours near the Hoke/Scotland county line according to MRMS data. The higher HREF NPs of higher amounts favor the existing heavy rain area translating northward through the western and central CWA, correlating well with the watch area. The chance for quick spinups of weak tropical tornadoes persists as well for the next several hours. Current 0-1 km shear and SRH are maximized W-E through the central of the CWA, and where this area overlaps with greater SBCAPE (~1500-2500 J/kg over the NE Piedmont and N/C Coastal Plain) and CAPE advection will present the most likely places for such spinups, particularly associated with deepening updrafts within these tropical rainbands. Will maintain high chance pops, likely to categorical, into the evening, with a SW-to-NE downturn in pops later in the evening and overnight, in line with the consensus of recent guidance. The low is expected to shift just NE of the CWA near sunrise, so this area will be the last to see lower pops. Considerable cloudiness will hold as well, with areas of stratus likely. Lows from 69 to 75. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Chantal's remnant low will continue to pull away from the NE CWA Mon morning, so we may still see morning showers in the NE CWA where high PWs will linger along with weak low level mass convergence. A weak trailing trough is expected to extend through the heart of the CWA through Mon night, with high dewpoints in the 70s lingering along and E of the trough. With low to mid level flow from the W and WNW, albeit light, to the west of the trough, the far W Piedmont may mix out enough to drop surface dewpoints down into the upper 60s and limit SBCAPE a bit, so despite what should be good heating (after the morning stratus burns off), the lowest pops should be in our far W. In the E, within higher PW and higher surface dewpoints, isolated to scattered storms remain possible in the afternoon. Recent CAM runs are less enthusiastic, with scant coverage, due perhaps in part to large-scale post-TC subsidence. Will hold onto scattered showers and storms in the afternoon into early evening here, but there is a chance for lesser coverage in later forecasts. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1233 PM Sunday... Expect a return to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday after a surface trough sets up across the central portion of North Carolina. Tuesday is also expected to have the least cloud cover of any day this week, which will help it to be the warmest day of the week - widespread low to mid 90s are in the forecast for temperatures and it is the primary day that may reach heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees. The entire forecast area is under a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, primarily due to the inverted-V soundings which could mix stronger wind down to the surface. The storms will have plenty of instability to work with, although deep level shear will be weak and will have a harder time organizing thunderstorms. As an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the United States for the second half of the week, this will increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. This should result in a slight reduction of temperatures - although most places will still reach the low 90s on Wednesday and highs in the upper 80s will be more typical on Thursday and Friday with the increased cloud cover. Once the trough axis moves farther east and gets closer to the Atlantic coastline over the weekend, coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease somewhat, returning more to scattered showers/storms each afternoon, with a slight increase in highs back into the low 90s. While some upper 60s are possible for overnight lows, most locations will not fall out of the 70s through much of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday... Adverse aviation conditions will dominate at all terminals across central NC through much of tonight, with SW-to-NE improvement Mon morning. What is now TD Chantal centered just S of LBT will continue to track slowly to the NNE and NE through central NC through tonight, while continuing to weaken to a remnant low. Numerous to widespread showers, and isolated storms, will bring MVFR to IFR conditions (both cigs and vsbys) as the storm center tracks through, with the IFR conditions most likely where the rain is heaviest. Wind concerns are now lower as the storm weakens, although sporadic surface gusts up to 15-20 kts are possible anywhere, with isolated up to 20-35 kts in and near the heavier showers and isolated storms, mostly this afternoon through early evening. Once the low center tracks NE of central NC early Mon morning, leaving behind a weak trough down through the area, cigs and vsbys will quickly trend to VFR, with just mid and high clouds over the area and light surface winds through the end of the TAF valid period. Looking beyond 18z Mon, a few showers and storms are possible with heating Mon from mid afternoon to early evening, mainly at RWI/FAY. Additional rounds of scattered storms are expected each afternoon through mid evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are possible each day Wed-Fri. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042- 073>078-083>086-088-089. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Hartfield
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 4:54 AM EDT, 10 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089-070900- Johnston-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. In addition to the potential for locally heavy rain, an isolated, brief tornado or two is also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ007-008-024-025-040-041-073>076-083-084-070900- Person-Granville-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore- Lee-Anson-Richmond- 454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ021>023-038-039-070900- Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph- 454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ009>011-026>028-043-070900- Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson- 454 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Periods of locally heavy rain are possible later today and tonight which could result in localized flooding of poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. High temperatures in the lower to mid 90s on Tuesday combined with a very humid airmass will result in afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 6, 2:06 PM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
206 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0142 PM Flash Flood 1 NW Bowmore 34.95N 79.33W
07/06/2025 Hoke NC 911 Call Center
Norton Road flooded and closed due to flood
waters.
&&
npLocal storm report, Jul 6, 2:42 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
242 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0224 PM Flash Flood 1 NNE Aberdeen 35.15N 79.42W
07/06/2025 Moore NC Public
Received a public report with photo which
shows impassable depth and rapidly-flowing
water covering US 15-501 in Southern Pines.
&&
npThe office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 8:25 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Chatham, Lee | 65 min |
| Jul 6, 1:52 AM EDT | Flood Watch | RAH | Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham and 18 more | 24 hr |
| Jul 6, 5:53 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Sampson | 52 min |
| Jul 6, 6:59 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Sampson, Wayne | 61 min |
| Jul 6, 10:52 AM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Hoke | 38 min |
| Jul 6, 11:33 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Hoke, Scotland | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 12:54 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Hoke, Lee, Moore | 36 min |
| Jul 6, 1:22 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond and 1 more | 14 hr |
| Jul 6, 1:30 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Edgecombe, Nash, Wilson | 45 min |
| Jul 6, 1:49 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Harnett, Lee | 41 min |
| Jul 6, 3:08 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Alamance, Chatham, Durham, Guilford, Lee, Orange and 2 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 6, 3:19 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Chatham, Lee | 26 min |
| Jul 6, 3:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Chatham, Durham, Orange, Wake | 47 min |
| Jul 6, 3:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Alamance, Chatham, Orange | 16 min |
| Jul 6, 5:01 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Alamance, Durham, Orange | 2 hr |
| Jul 6, 5:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Alamance, Durham, Orange | 58 min |
| Jul 6, 6:13 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange | 32 min |
| Jul 6, 6:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange | 9 min |
| Jul 6, 6:56 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Moore | 6 hr |
| Jul 6, 6:58 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange | 21 min |
| Jul 6, 7:04 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Alamance, Durham, Orange | 6 hr |
| Jul 6, 7:37 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | RAH | Chatham | 33 hr |
| Jul 6, 7:43 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RAH | Alamance, Chatham, Durham, Orange | 77 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2025Every flash flood warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.