Tornado Warning 104, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

 - Severe weather Today/Tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes.

 - Shower/storm chances return end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of our forecast
area this afternoon at least through the evening, impacting
generally the eastern half of our CWA.  The upper trough currently
over the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies will start digging across the
Southern Plains eventually pushing a cold front through late tonight
although the impactful severe weather will initiate early this
afternoon near and east of an advancing dryline.  Very moist in the
low levels with moderate surface-based instability already in place
east of the dryline per this mornings 12Z balloon observation
sounding with a mid-level cap. As this mornings stratus continues to
burn off, diurnal heating along with steepening mid-level lapse
rates will increase the instability strong to extreme (SBCAPE 4000-
5000 Jkg) while breaking the mid-level cap early in the afternoon as
per latest forecast soundings.  Deep-layer shear remains strong and
will perhaps strengthen as the upper wave approaches.

An initial round of severe storms will be possible along and east of
the dryline early in the afternoon across all but our far western
counties bordering the TX/OK Panhandles where the cap should be
eroded.  Elevated convection from shortwaves ejected from the main
wave may also start becoming surface-based by afternoon as well.
However, the timing for the highest severe risk and round #2 near
and east of the dryline will be toward late afternoon with the peak
heating and strongest instability and shear.  Expecting the dryline
to have punched further east across west-central Oklahoma and
adjacent western north Texas by late afternoon, so all areas near to
the east of this advancing dryline will be in the highest risk area
into the evening hours as the main upper wave comes through.
Conditions will be favorable for supercells producing very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a potential for strong numerous
tornados.  Storm motion for unbroken cells will be steered to the
northeast. The severe risk will lower behind the dryline.

The severe risk is expected to end in our forecast area by
midnight as upper level support begins to move out. A cold front
will sweep through overnight scouring out the moisture by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

All storm POPs out of the forecast by sunrise Tuesday with the cold
front pushing across southeast Oklahoma.  Will be sunny, cooler, and
less muggy within a cooler and drier air mass under the exiting
upper trough.  Temperatures Monday will return to more seasonably
average (lower to mid 80s highs) and cooler nights (50s).  Northwest
flow aloft returns Wednesday with a brief return of southerly
surface winds before a weak cold front passage late Wednesday.  Will
see a brief warming trend on Wednesday although meager moisture
return as we should stay dry.  There could be some MCS activity
coming down the Central Plains Wednesday night with the return of
northwest flow although for now would be east of our forecast area
perhaps affecting northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Low rain chances will return Thursday and continue into the weekend.
Subtle disturbances moving through the mid/upper level flow could
lead to some showers/storms late this week. A shortwave moving
across the northern/central Plains could bring a chance for rain
this weekend. However, there area differences in the models as to
timing/strength/path of this shortwave so definitely uncertainty
with the forecast late this week/weekend.

Another front is expected to move across the area Wednesday
night/Thursday which will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
(compared to Wednesday) on Thursday with highs in the 70s to low/mid
80s. After Thursday, highs in the 80s and 90s are expected into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting / shifting eastward. Multiple
rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected over the next 12
hours. Have included PROB30 groups where impacts is most possible.
A cold front will bring northwesterly winds across the region
early Tuesday morning.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  79  56  85 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  81  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  82  58  90 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           51  81  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  78  52  81 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  79  58  85 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14

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