Tornado Warning 103, NWS Norman, OK

972 
WWUS54 KOUN 192049
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
349 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

OKC067-192059-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0103.000000T0000Z-250519T2115Z/
Jefferson OK-
349 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3394 9747 3409 9753 3420 9724 3400 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 234DEG 38KT 3409 9741 

$$

OKC019-085-192115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0103.000000T0000Z-250519T2115Z/
Love OK-Carter OK-
349 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOVE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARTER COUNTIES...

At 349 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 5 miles south of Wilson, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lone Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 9747 3409 9753 3420 9724 3400 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 234DEG 38KT 3409 9741 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

$$

Schueth

925 
WWUS54 KOUN 192057
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

OKC019-085-192106-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0103.000000T0000Z-250519T2115Z/
Love OK-Carter OK-
357 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LOVE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARTER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  However,
small hail is still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northwestern Love and south central Carter Counties.

LAT...LON 3394 9747 3409 9753 3420 9724 3400 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 255DEG 31KT 3411 9733 

$$

Schueth

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Norman OK
218 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

 - Severe weather Today/Tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds,
   and strong tornadoes.

 - Shower/storm chances return end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

A severe weather outbreak is possible across parts of our forecast
area this afternoon at least through the evening, impacting
generally the eastern half of our CWA.  The upper trough currently
over the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies will start digging across the
Southern Plains eventually pushing a cold front through late tonight
although the impactful severe weather will initiate early this
afternoon near and east of an advancing dryline.  Very moist in the
low levels with moderate surface-based instability already in place
east of the dryline per this mornings 12Z balloon observation
sounding with a mid-level cap. As this mornings stratus continues to
burn off, diurnal heating along with steepening mid-level lapse
rates will increase the instability strong to extreme (SBCAPE 4000-
5000 Jkg) while breaking the mid-level cap early in the afternoon as
per latest forecast soundings.  Deep-layer shear remains strong and
will perhaps strengthen as the upper wave approaches.

An initial round of severe storms will be possible along and east of
the dryline early in the afternoon across all but our far western
counties bordering the TX/OK Panhandles where the cap should be
eroded.  Elevated convection from shortwaves ejected from the main
wave may also start becoming surface-based by afternoon as well.
However, the timing for the highest severe risk and round #2 near
and east of the dryline will be toward late afternoon with the peak
heating and strongest instability and shear.  Expecting the dryline
to have punched further east across west-central Oklahoma and
adjacent western north Texas by late afternoon, so all areas near to
the east of this advancing dryline will be in the highest risk area
into the evening hours as the main upper wave comes through.
Conditions will be favorable for supercells producing very large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a potential for strong numerous
tornados.  Storm motion for unbroken cells will be steered to the
northeast. The severe risk will lower behind the dryline.

The severe risk is expected to end in our forecast area by
midnight as upper level support begins to move out. A cold front
will sweep through overnight scouring out the moisture by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

All storm POPs out of the forecast by sunrise Tuesday with the cold
front pushing across southeast Oklahoma.  Will be sunny, cooler, and
less muggy within a cooler and drier air mass under the exiting
upper trough.  Temperatures Monday will return to more seasonably
average (lower to mid 80s highs) and cooler nights (50s).  Northwest
flow aloft returns Wednesday with a brief return of southerly
surface winds before a weak cold front passage late Wednesday.  Will
see a brief warming trend on Wednesday although meager moisture
return as we should stay dry.  There could be some MCS activity
coming down the Central Plains Wednesday night with the return of
northwest flow although for now would be east of our forecast area
perhaps affecting northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Low rain chances will return Thursday and continue into the weekend.
Subtle disturbances moving through the mid/upper level flow could
lead to some showers/storms late this week. A shortwave moving
across the northern/central Plains could bring a chance for rain
this weekend. However, there area differences in the models as to
timing/strength/path of this shortwave so definitely uncertainty
with the forecast late this week/weekend.

Another front is expected to move across the area Wednesday
night/Thursday which will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
(compared to Wednesday) on Thursday with highs in the 70s to low/mid
80s. After Thursday, highs in the 80s and 90s are expected into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

MVFR ceilings are gradually lifting / shifting eastward. Multiple
rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected over the next 12
hours. Have included PROB30 groups where impacts is most possible.
A cold front will bring northwesterly winds across the region
early Tuesday morning.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  79  56  85 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         57  81  55  90 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  82  58  90 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           51  81  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  78  52  81 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  79  58  85 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     Hail             5 NE Bluegrove          33.74N 98.20W
05/19/2025  E3.00 Inch       Clay               TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Tea Cup (3.00 in.).

&&

JH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     Hail             4 S Horntown            35.03N 96.25W
05/19/2025  E1.25 Inch       Hughes             OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

JH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     Hail             1 SSW Ada               34.77N 96.66W
05/19/2025  M1.50 Inch       Pontotoc           OK   Trained Spotter

            Spotternetwork Report.

&&

AZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
314 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSW Ada               34.77N 96.66W
05/19/2025  M63 MPH          Pontotoc           OK   Trained Spotter

            Spotternetwork Report.

&&

AZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
320 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Hail             1 E Seminole            35.23N 96.65W
05/19/2025  E1.75 Inch       Seminole           OK   Emergency Mngr

&&

JH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     Hail             Bluegrove               33.67N 98.23W
05/19/2025  E1.75 Inch       Clay               TX   Emergency Mngr

&&

AW