Tornado Warning 38, NWS Nashville, TN

136 
WWUS54 KOHX 030903
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
403 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

TNC037-165-189-030913-
/O.CAN.KOHX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-250403T0930Z/
Davidson TN-Sumner TN-Wilson TN-
403 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHERN SUMNER
AND NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8638 3636 8627 3636 8628 3635 8628
      3633 8626 3632 8627 3630 8627 3630 8625
      3632 8625 3626 8620 3615 8658 3630 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 241DEG 23KT 3628 8655 

$$

Clements

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for
  many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for
  Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to
  begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading
  across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late
  night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and
  torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and
  west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest
  risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville
  Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and
  eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest
  half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower
  storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be
  the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The evening sounding at OHX is well underway and we can share some
data already up to 400 mb. SBCAPE is 1,776 J/kg and the LI is -9
(hence the large hail that's already occurred). The 0-3 km storm-
relative helicity is 408 owing to a 40 kt wind at 925 mb and 50 kt
wind at 850 mb, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is 7.2C/km.
Precipitable Water is coming in at 1.56", which is a new record
max for this date. So the environment we expected is definitely in
place. A cold front is just now crossing the Mississippi River,
and won't make it much further before becoming quasi-stationary by
around 12Z tomorrow. The boundary likely won't actually come
through Middle Tennessee until late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The surface boundary that is creating all this mayhem tonight
continues to creep toward Middle Tennessee, but will soon stall
just to our northwest. Earlier discreet cells that produced large
hail and some wind damage across mainly western portions of
Middle Tennessee have either dissipated or moved out of the area,
and we are now watching the next line of severe storms track
across West Tennessee and toward the OHX warning area. Not much
has changed from our earlier messaging. We expect the approaching
storms to have their most significant impacts over western Middle
Tennessee, then weaken somewhat as they advance toward the
Nashville Metro Area. It is still conceivable that some portions
of the mid state may not be impacted at all tonight, especially
over southeastern portions of the mid state. As the severe threat
overnight diminishes, we will begin to transition to more of a
flooding threat. Granted, severe storms will still be possible
until the aforementioned boundary loosens from its moors and
finally sweeps through the mid state this weekend. But the
primary impacts after tonight will be areal flooding, river
flooding and also flash flooding in areas affected by high
rainfall rates. Temperatures will remain quite warm the remainder
of this week. (Today's high temperature of 85 degrees at
Nashville was just 2 degrees shy of the daily record high.) The
unusually warm air mass and moisture transport provided by strong
low-level winds, coupled with the close proximity of the quasi-
stationary boundary are fueling what is expected to be some large
rainfall totals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Blocking high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will
finally relent this weekend and enable the stalled frontal
boundary to come through Middle Tennessee late Saturday and
Saturday night, with one more round of potentially severe storms
and heavy rainfall before this active weather pattern draws to an
end. By the time the rain finally winds down on Sunday, we are
looking at storm total QPF of 2 to 3" along the Cumberland
Plateau, to 5 to 7" across Nashville Metro, to 10+" around Land-
between-the-Lakes. So we do expect significant rises along rivers
and creeks across a large portion of the mid state. Fortunately,
the weather next week will be much more benign, albeit
significantly cooler. Of note, widespread frost is possible
Tuesday morning, and many spots can expect freezing temperatures
Wednesday morning before we start to warm back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Ongoing storms will be moving into BNA and MQY over the next hour
or two, bringing MVFR vis/cigs with occasional IFR conditions with
heavier rainfall. This activity is expected to dissipate
considerably before reaching SRB and CSV. Behind the storms, CKV
will maintain MVFR conditions overnight. A front will meander
across northern Middle TN through tomorrow, making for a low
confidence forecast, especially at CKV which will vary between
both sides of the front. South of the front, ceilings will likely
improve to VFR in the afternoon, but remain MVFR to the north.
The front will also be a focus for additional TS in the afternoon,
potentially impacting BNA and CKV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  78  67  86 /  70  80  50  40
Clarksville    63  71  61  83 /  90  90  70  70
Crossville     65  80  64  83 /  20  30  20  20
Columbia       67  81  67  86 /  60  60  40  30
Cookeville     66  80  66  83 /  40  60  30  30
Jamestown      65  80  64  83 /  40  60  30  30
Lawrenceburg   69  81  69  85 /  40  40  30  20
Murfreesboro   67  82  66  86 /  50  60  40  20
Waverly        63  72  63  84 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....DGS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
201 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     Lightning        2 E Belle Meade         36.10N 86.82W
04/03/2025                   Davidson           TN   Public

            Person struck by lightning in Green Hills.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     Hail             5 SW Fairview           35.94N 87.20W
04/03/2025  M2.50 Inch       Williamson         TN   Amateur Radio

            Pinewood Road and Hwy 100. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
330 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 AM     Hail             2 S Mount Juliet        36.18N 86.52W
04/03/2025  M1.00 Inch       Wilson             TN   Public

            Time estimated from radar.

&&

SWU

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
343 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Fairview          36.00N 87.08W
04/03/2025  M60 MPH          Williamson         TN   Amateur Radio

            60 mph wind gust measured at Highway 100 and
            Brush Creek Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
350 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 AM     Hail             2 ENE Mount Juliet      36.22N 86.49W
04/03/2025  E1.25 Inch       Wilson             TN   NWS Employee

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 AM     Hail             7 WSW Forest Hills      36.02N 86.95W
04/03/2025  E1.00 Inch       Williamson         TN   Public

            Quarter size hail reported at Temple Hills.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&